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2016 Hurricane Names


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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 282351
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Matthew, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew are issued under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Tropical Storm MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)- ...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.9, -63.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 3-Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016


000
WTNT34 KNHC 290251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 63.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 13.9 North,
longitude 63.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 15 mph
(24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track,
the center of Matthew will continue to move away from the Windward
Islands tonight, and be over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night or
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands
within the warning area. These condition should begin to subside
during the next several hours.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 3-Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTNT24 KNHC 290250
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  63.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......160NE 100SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 120SE  30SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  63.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  62.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N  65.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...160NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N  67.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N  70.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N  71.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.8N  75.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  63.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 


Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 3-Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 290251
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Matthew crossed a portion of the Lesser Antilles today, and
tropical-storm-force winds were experienced in various islands for
several hours.  The strongest winds appeared to have occurred in
Martinique which was located in the northeastern quadrant of the
storm.  An Air Force plane currently investigating Matthew measured
a peak wind at 850-mb of 73 kt, while the SFMR instrument measured
54 kt. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb. There are no signs
of an inner core yet, but the cloud pattern has increased in
organization, and the initial intensity was adjusted upward to 55
kt.

Matthew is forecast to move over warm waters and relatively low
shear during the next few days, and these conditions should lead to
gradual strengthening.  There is a possibility, however, that
Matthew encounters some westerly shear in the central Caribbean well
south of Haiti in a day or two. This is an area climatologically
unfavorable for storms to intensify, and Matthew could reduce its
rate of strengthening there.  After that, most of the models show a
more conducive upper-level environment, and Matthew could intensify
at a faster rate. The NHC forecast is not very different from its
predecessor and follows closely the intensity consensus.

Fixes from an Air Force plane indicate that Matthew is moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt.  A strong subtropical
ridge over the Atlantic is steering Matthew westward, and some
models even move the cyclone south of due west. Most of the guidance
is very consistent with this track during the next 48 hours. After
that time, guidance becomes more divergent, but in general, all
models turn the cyclone toward the northwest and north. Of the
historically reliable models, the westernmost track is the ECMWF
ensemble mean while the easternmost is the HWRF. The NHC track
forecast is in the middle of the TVCX and TVCN multi-model
consensus, and does not depart very much from the previous official
forecast.

There will be very interesting days ahead as Matthew moves toward
the central and western Caribbean Sea, and users are reminded that
the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180
and 240 miles, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 13.9N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 14.3N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 14.4N  67.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 14.3N  70.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 14.1N  71.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 14.5N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 16.8N  75.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 20.0N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Storm MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3-Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 290251
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016               
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  19(28)  14(42)   5(47)   X(47)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   1(20)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
CURACAO        34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   4(22)   2(24)   X(24)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  20(39)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  13(33)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  24(30)  16(46)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   8(20)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   9(13)  20(33)  10(43)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   7(17)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   6(12)  11(23)   8(31)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   7(22)   7(29)   4(33)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   6(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   3(16)   2(18)
 
PONCE PR       34  4   5( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  5   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  7   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BARBUDA        34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
AVES           34 63   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
DOMINICA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MARTINIQUE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    


Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics- Tropical Storm MATTHEW 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 02:52:01 GMT

Tropical Storm MATTHEW 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 03:06:35 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282348
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Roslyn, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Storm Ulika, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a trough of low pressure located about a couple
of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds
are expected to be marginally conducive for some development of
this system during the next several days while this disturbance
moves away from the coast of Mexico. By late this weekend, this
system is forecast to encounter cooler waters, making development
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Tropical Depression ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)- ...ROSLYN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 the center of ROSLYN was located near 22.1, -115.1 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 15-Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 290254
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

...ROSLYN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 115.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Roslyn
was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 115.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, and a turn toward the
west is forecast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is likely, and Roslyn is expected to degenerate to
a remnant low pressure area on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 15-Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 290254
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 115.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 115.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 


Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 15-Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290256
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

A small area of deep convection continues to fire to the north of
the center of the cyclone, with little change in Roslyn during the
past several hours.  The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in
accordance with the past ASCAT data.  The cyclone should move over
progressively cooler water in a strongly sheared and dry
environment.  Thus, weakening should occur, and the new forecast is
an update of the previous one, showing Roslyn decaying to a remnant
low in 12 hours.

The depression continues moving northward, now at 6 kt.  Roslyn
should turn northwestward and then westward before dissipation in
about 2 days while the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly
steered by a low-level ridge to the north.  The new track forecast
is a little slower than and south of the previous one since the
latest guidance has trended in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 22.1N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Depression ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15-Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 290255
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016               
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Tropical Depression ROSLYN Graphics- Tropical Depression ROSLYN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 02:55:52 GMT

Tropical Depression ROSLYN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 03:07:07 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm ULIKA (EP4/EP192016)- ...ULIKA WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 the center of ULIKA was located near 15.8, -138.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm ULIKA Public Advisory Number 11-Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 290253
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

...ULIKA WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 138.9W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1765 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ulika was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 138.9 West. Ulika is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
northwest followed by a turn toward the west is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Ulika is
forecast to become a remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Advisory Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 290252
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.5N 139.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.3N 139.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.0N 146.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 138.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 


Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion Number 11-Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290254
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

Southwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Ulika.  The cloud
pattern of the tropical cyclone is elongated from west-southwest to
east-northeast, with only bursts of convection present.  The
initial wind speed is conservatively reduced to 45 kt, a blend of
the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  A large mid/upper-level
trough over the central Pacific is forecast to remain nearly
stationary, which should cause a further increase in shear.  Dry air
aloft should also help choke off the convection, and Ulika is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours.  The
intensity forecast is near an average of the previous interpolated
official forecast and the intensity consensus.  The intensity
forecast is a bit higher than the previous one at long range due to
the strong trade wind environment the cyclone is forecast to be
embedded within.

Ulika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is
now estimated to be 360/6.  The small tropical cyclone should
continue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level trough to
its west until it becomes a shallow cyclone in about 24 to 36
hours. Thereafter, it is forecast to move westward in the low-level
flow until dissipation.  Most of the model guidance was a bit faster
and farther to the north, so the NHC track prediction is adjusted in
that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 15.8N 138.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 16.5N 139.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 17.3N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 142.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0000Z 18.0N 146.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm ULIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 290253
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016               
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Tropical Storm ULIKA Graphics- Tropical Storm ULIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 02:54:10 GMT

Tropical Storm ULIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 03:07:39 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180:

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ulika, located about 1125 miles east-
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Friday
afternoon.



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