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"Run from the water; hide from the wind."
The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 281146
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated
with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north of the coast of Honduras. While this system is producing
winds to near gale force north of the center, development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast
to move little over the next few days, and locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 28 Oct 2016 12:03:21 GMT
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016 ...SEYMOUR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.8W ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Seymour was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later today, and continue into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and the system will likely dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280831 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.5N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.8N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280835 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016 The cyclone has lacked organized deep convection within 60-100 n mi of its center for over 12 hours, and no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. Since Seymour has become a post-tropical remnant low, advisories are being discontinued. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB along with scatterometer data indicated an intensity of near 35 kt at 0600 UTC. Assuming some additional spindown of the cyclone since then, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The low will be moving through an extremely hostile environment of southwesterly shear of 40-45 kt and SSTs cooler than 23 deg C during the next couple of days. These environmental factors should cause the remnant low to dissipate in a couple of days. This is also shown by the global model predictions. The low has turned toward a slightly east of northward heading, and the initial motion is about 010/7 kt. A north-northeastward motion, ahead of an approaching frontal system, is expected over the next day or so. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one, toward the latest model consensus. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 22.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 25.8N 121.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 27.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280832 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH