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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191756
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Summary for Tropical Storm BARRY (AT2/AL022013)- ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -95.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 10-Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013


000
WTNT32 KNHC 192043
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
 
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013
HURRICANE SEASON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. BARRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST
IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING.
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT SINCE RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 



Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013

000
WTNT22 KNHC 192042
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  95.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  95.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  95.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.6N  96.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N  97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N  98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  95.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 



Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 10-Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

000
WTNT42 KNHC 192043
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND
NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON.  SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR
VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN
CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE.
 
BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION  WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL
DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 19.6N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 19.6N  96.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.6N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/0600Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 



Tropical Storm BARRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013

000
FONT12 KNHC 192043
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013               
2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1      14      34      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 29      52      46      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  68      33      19      NA      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE        1       2       1      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       1       1      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    25KT    20KT    NA      NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TUXPAN MX      34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34 37   5(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
VERACRUZ MX    50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



Tropical Storm BARRY Graphics- Tropical Storm BARRY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 20:43:47 GMT

Tropical Storm BARRY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 20:43:47 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 19 Jun 2013 20:44:31 GMT
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