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2016 Hurricane Names


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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Matthew, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)- ...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.1, -67.8 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016


000
WTNT34 KNHC 292036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 67.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to
Riohacha.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew.  Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 67.8 West.  Matthew is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A westward to
west-southwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42059 has recently reported sustained
winds of 59 mph (94 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba tonight and Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the watch in Colombia beginning Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will continue to diminish
across the Lesser Antilles this evening.  Isolated additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the southern
Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Pasch



Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTNT24 KNHC 292035
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO
RIOHACHA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA
* COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.  INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  67.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT.......110NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 100SE  50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 150SE 120SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  67.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  67.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.0N  69.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N  71.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.7N  72.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.7N  73.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N  75.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N  75.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  67.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 292037
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

After the low-level center became nearly exposed this morning, deep
convection has redeveloped over the center.  The overall cloud
pattern of Matthew has become better organized during the day, with
some banding features over the eastern and northern portions of the
circulation.  Thanks to some timely observations from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters, Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane at 18Z.  This
was based on several believable SFMR-observed surface wind
measurements from the aircraft.  Matthew is forecast to remain in an
environment of 15 to 20 kt of shear into Friday, with some
relaxation of the shear expected by late Friday.  The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is
a little above the model consensus but close to the latest HWRF
model prediction.

Matthew has not slowed down yet, with the initial motion remaining
westward at 15 kt.  A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the
hurricane should maintain a westward to slightly south of westward
motion for the next 48 hours or so.  Then, Matthew is likely to
turn to the right as it nears the western periphery of the ridge,
and head generally northward to the southwest and west of the high
and east of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast
period.  One should not focus on the details of the track at 72 to
120 hours due to the inherent forecast uncertainties.  It should be
noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
for initializing the numerical models.  It is hoped that these
additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
runs.

The unusually far south track of Matthew has necessitated the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of
Colombia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 14.1N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 14.0N  69.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 13.8N  71.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 13.7N  72.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 13.7N  73.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 15.7N  75.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 18.6N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown



Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 292036
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016               
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  3  32(35)  18(53)   4(57)   5(62)   1(63)   X(63)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CURACAO        34  6   5(11)   3(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  24(35)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  21(29)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  15(27)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  15(30)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  25(36)  14(50)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  10(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)   7(39)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  21(24)  26(50)   7(57)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   5(27)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)  20(28)  17(45)   7(52)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   4(19)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)  10(18)  12(30)   4(34)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  4   6(10)   3(13)   3(16)   8(24)   6(30)   2(32)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  4   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   2(15)
 
PONCE PR       34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    


Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics- Hurricane MATTHEW 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 20:37:08 GMT

Hurricane MATTHEW 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 21:05:37 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291745
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Roslyn, which has become a post-tropical cyclone located a few
hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last
advisory on Tropical Storm Ulika, located well to the east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. Subsequent advisories on this system will
be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
Hawaii.

Cloudiness and showers extending several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive
for some development during the next several days while this system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 mph away from the coast
of Mexico. By late this weekend, this system is forecast to
encounter cooler waters, making development less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)- ...ROSLYN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 the center of ROSLYN was located near 23.5, -115.5 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 17-Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291452
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

...ROSLYN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 115.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Roslyn
was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 115.5 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7
mph (11 km/h).   A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is
expected later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to dissipate in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Roslyn.  For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


$$
Forecaster Pasch



Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 17-Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291452
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 115.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 115.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.1N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 115.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSLYN.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 17-Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291453
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

Roslyn has been devoid of deep convection overnight, and the system
consists of only a swirl of low clouds.  Given the lack of
convection, Roslyn has become a post-tropical remnant low.  The
initial intensity is kept at 25 kt based on continuity from earlier
scatterometer data.  The cyclone should spin down over cool waters
and completely dissipate after 24 hours.

The motion is north-northwestward or 345/6 kt.  A weak low-level
ridge to the north and northwest of the system should cause a turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest until dissipation.

This is the last advisory on Roslyn.  For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 23.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  30/0000Z 24.1N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17-Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 291453
PWSEP3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016               
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Graphics- Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 14:55:54 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 15:07:31 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm ULIKA (EP4/EP192016)- ...ULIKA TURNS NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 the center of ULIKA was located near 16.7, -139.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm ULIKA Public Advisory Number 13-Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 291455
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

...ULIKA TURNS NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 139.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ulika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 139.7 West.  Ulika is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn
toward the west on Friday.  On the forecast track, Ulika is
forecast to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area
of responsibility later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and Ulika is likely
to become a remnant low in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last Public Advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 1100 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2,
WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Advisory Number 13-Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 291455
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 139.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 139.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 139.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO
HEADER WTPA22 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion Number 13-Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291456
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

Ulika's cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this
morning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the
east of the estimated low-level center location.  The initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from
SAB and TAFB.  A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of
Ulika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36
hours.  Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should
degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner.

The cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
is estimated to be around 320/6 kt.  The flow on the southern side
of a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward
the west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days.  The
official track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks
and only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast.

The next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm ULIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13-Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 291455
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016               
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Tropical Storm ULIKA Graphics- Tropical Storm ULIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 14:57:32 GMT

Tropical Storm ULIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 21:06:13 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Tropical Storm Ulika Number 14-Issued at "2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016"

Tropical Storm Ulika Advisory Number 014-
Issued at 1100 AM HST THU SEP 29 2016
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 140.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 



Tropical Storm Ulika Forecast/Advisory Number 014-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 140.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

Tropical Storm Ulika Forecast Discussion Number 014-Issued at 1100 AM HST THU SEP 29 2016 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 17.2N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.7N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 18.3N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 18.4N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 18.2N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard

Tropical Storm Ulika Probabilities Number 014-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

Tropical Storm Ulika-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180:

1. Tropical Storm Ulika will move across 140W today into the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility.
Therefore, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will begin
advisories on Ulika at 11 am HST. The public advisory will be
issued under AWIPS header TCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. The
last public advisory by the National Hurricane Center was issued
under AWIPS header TCPEP4 and WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC. Ulika is
located approximately 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday
morning.


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