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2014 Hurricane Names


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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281129
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over
South Texas and northern Mexico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to
produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next
couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become
conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)- ...SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AFFECTING THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Aug 28 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 36.3, -67.0 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 19A-Issued at 800 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014


000
WTNT34 KNHC 281150
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
800 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

...SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AFFECTING THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST
FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 67.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE
U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 19-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

000
WTNT24 KNHC 280831
TCMAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  67.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 190SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  67.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  69.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.8N  63.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 41.5N  55.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE  80SW  30NW.
34 KT...210NE 250SE 130SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 46.0N  47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW  80NW.
34 KT...210NE 260SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 59.5N  28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW.
34 KT...250NE 320SE 280SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 63.0N  21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N  67.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 19-Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

000
WTNT44 KNHC 280832
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical
cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric
area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of
65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as
indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it
will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts
with a frontal zone.  Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius
waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It
should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of
hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.

The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and
accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from
the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in
good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS
ensemble mean.

The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated
with the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 35.6N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 37.8N  63.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 41.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 46.0N  47.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0600Z 59.5N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0600Z 63.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila




Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

000
FONT14 KNHC 280832
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014               
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)  52(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BERMUDA        34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics- Hurricane CRISTOBAL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:51:28 GMT

Hurricane CRISTOBAL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 09:04:45 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281131
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Marie, located nearly a thousand miles west Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)- ...MARIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 the center of MARIE was located near 24.4, -127.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm MARIE Public Advisory Number 26-Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 280830
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MARIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 127.8W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRIDAY.  LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 26-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 280830
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 127.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 240SE 180SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 127.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 127.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 127.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 



Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 26-Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280831
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past
few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on
the north side of the old central dense overcast.  The initial
wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest
satellite classifications.  Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters,
it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and
should become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  The large
circulation will take some time to spin down even without
convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual
decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt.  This general motion
is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern
California.  Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow.
Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours,
so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction.  Beyond day
3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous
forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Storm MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 280830
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014               
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
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FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Tropical Storm MARIE Graphics- Tropical Storm MARIE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 08:32:08 GMT

Tropical Storm MARIE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 12:55:44 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through late Friday night.
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