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2017 Hurricane Names


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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211111
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 21 Jul 2017 16:27:48 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for the formation of a tropical
depression during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific
southwest of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tomorrow while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Tropical Storm Greg (EP2/EP072017)- ...GREG MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 60-MPH WINDS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 the center of Greg was located near 15.1, -119.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Greg Public Advisory Number 17-Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211459
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...GREG MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 60-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 119.2W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 119.2 West. Greg is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A continued
westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Greg is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Advisory Number 17-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211458
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 125.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.2N 130.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.1N 133.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 119.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 


Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 17-Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211500
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Satellite images indicate that the central convection associated
with Greg has become more compact over the last several hours,
though it is mostly on the northern side of the circulation.
Microwave data also show an increase in organization with a
thin mid-level eye feature now apparent.  Although the conventional
satellite estimates haven't changed, based on the increased
structure in microwave data, the initial wind speed is bumped up to
50 kt, a blend of the latest CI estimates from TAFB/SAB.

The initial motion is a more confident 285/9. A trough to the
northwest of Greg is forecast to lift northward during the next
couple of days, which will probably cause Greg to shift to a more
westward track by Sunday as a ridge builds in slightly.  The
short-term forecast has been shifted northward, similar to the
model consensus. In the longer range, the storm should turn to the
west-northwest or northwest due to a small low- to mid-level trough
dropping out of the mid-latitudes, weakening the periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. Model guidance, however, is not in good
agreement on the long range forecast, with many of the differences
due to the strength of the storm.  It is probably prudent to wait
until the 12Z models come in to see if the ECMWF continues its
previous solution, which the prior NHC forecast weighted heavily.
Thus the new NHC track forecast is basically an update of the last
forecast, on the western side of the model consensus at days 4 and
5.

Greg has a couple of days over warm water left to strengthen.
However, the environment is less than optimal, with light-to-
moderate southerly shear and a drying mid-level atmosphere forecast.
On the other hand, Greg is finally displaying a more solid inner
core, which would generally promote strengthening.  Overall, these
factors support some intensification during the next couple of days,
and that is the solution shown in the latest NHC forecast. Gradual
weakening should begin by day 4 due to colder waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.1N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 15.7N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.9N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 16.2N 130.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.1N 133.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Greg Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 211459
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017               
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 88   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
15N 120W       50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
15N 120W       64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 125W       34  X   2( 2)  49(51)   5(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)  12(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  41(48)   4(52)   X(52)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   4(18)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Tropical Storm Greg Graphics- Tropical Storm Greg 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2017 15:04:58 GMT

Tropical Storm Greg 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2017 15:23:36 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092017)- ...AND YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 the center of NINE-E was located near 9.0, -93.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE-E Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 211454
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...AND YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.0N 93.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of the recently formed
Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 9.0 North,
longitude 93.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near
14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during
the next 2 days.  This track will keep the core of the cyclone
well south of the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today or
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 211454
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.0N  93.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.0N  93.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.0N  93.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z  9.4N  95.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 10.0N  98.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.0N  93.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 


Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 211455
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate
that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few
days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective
organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression.
The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is
estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of
a developing cyclonically curved band.  Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and
1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.

The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental
conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a
tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most
of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the
official forecast which follows the consensus quite close.

The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees
at about 12 kt.  The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent
deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from
Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not
expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general
track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days.
The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope
and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.

This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during
this very busy July.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z  9.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z  9.4N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 10.0N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 211455
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017               
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
10N 105W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  41(43)  20(63)   2(65)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  12(27)   2(29)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   3(15)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   2(15)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
10N 100W       34  X   5( 5)  36(41)   7(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
10N 100W       50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
10N 100W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
10N 95W        34 18   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
10N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  16(37)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  14(23)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  23(36)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    


Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics- Tropical Depression NINE-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2017 14:59:07 GMT

Tropical Depression NINE-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2017 15:32:20 GMT

CPHC Central Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
ACPN50 PHFO 211131
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Fri Jul 21 2017

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Fernanda, located about
785 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during
the next 5 days.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernanda are issued
under WMO Header WTPA31 PHFO and under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP1. Forecast Advisories on Tropical Storm
Fernanda are issued under WTPA21 PHFO and under AWIPS
header HFOTCMCP1.

$$
Forecaster Houston


Summary for Tropical Storm Fernanda (CP1/EP062017)-...FERNANDA WEAKENS WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Jul 21 the center of Fernanda was located near 18.6N 143.6W with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Fernanda Public Advisory Number 39-Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
WTPA31 PHFO 211446
TCPCP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062017
500 AM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
 
...FERNANDA WEAKENS WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 143.6W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 143.6 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a general motion
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Fernanda is expected to become a tropical depression later today
or tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Surf...Large swells generated by Fernanda will continue to build
through the weekend along east facing shores of the main Hawaiian
islands.  The resultant surf will be large and potentially
dangerous. See products issued by the National Weather Service
forecast office in Honolulu for details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 


Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast/Advisory Number 39-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017
WTPA21 PHFO 211446
TCMCP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 143.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE  30SE  80SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 143.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 143.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 145.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 146.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.1N 148.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N 150.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 155.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 143.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
 
 


Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 39-Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
WTPA41 PHFO 211452
TCDCP1
 
Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062017
500 AM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
 
Deep convection persisted to the northeast of Fernanda overnight, 
but separated further from the low level circulation center (LLCC) 
due to increasing southwesterly shear. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB came in at 35 and 25 knots 
respectively, with the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) from
UW-CIMSS coming in with 33 knots. These values are likely still a
bit too low given the slow spin down time of these systems. Given
the increasing shear and resultant separation of the deep convection
from the LLCC however, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40
knots for this advisory package. 

The initial motion for this advisory is 280/10 kt. The spread
between the reliable guidance remains large. The GFS continues to 
show a stronger and deeper system tracking off toward the northwest 
for the next several days around the southwestern periphery of a 
strong sub-tropical ridge. The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the
HWRF and FSSE objective aids, show a more shallow system steered
along primarily by the low level trade wind flow. The GFEX and TVCN
consensus guidance appear to be influenced too far to the north due
to the outlier GFS solution. Given the unfavorable environmental
conditions, the forecast track is very close to the previous
official forecast, closely in line with the ECMWF solution, and to
the south of the consensus guidance. As a result, the forecast track
takes Fernanda off to the west-northwest through the forecast
period.

Fernanda remains in an unfavorable environment, with sea surface 
temperatures around 25C, very dry air aloft as evident in water 
vapor imagery, as well as strong southwesterly shear of around 35 
knots. Strong shear of 25 to 35 kt, very dry air aloft, and 
unfavorable sea surface temperatures hovering between 25 and 26C
are forecast to persist through the forecast period. As a result,
the forecast will continue to show slow and steady weakening, with 
Fernanda expected to become a Tropical Depression in 12 to 24
hours, a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours, then dissipating after 72
hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 18.6N 143.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 19.0N 145.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 19.5N 146.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 20.1N 148.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z 20.7N 150.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1200Z 22.1N 155.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 


Tropical Storm Fernanda Wind speed probabilities Number 39 -Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017
FOPA11 PHFO 211447
PWSCP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39         
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017         
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34 16   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
20N 150W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA                                                  

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