Hurricane



 

160 x 600  
 
 
 
 
2014 Hurricane Names


See below for the overview of all current storms:

NOAA Satellite image Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes
Hurricane Satellite Enhanced
Hurricane Satellite Loop
Hurricane Satellite Water Vapor Loop
Hurricane Satellite Eastern Caribbean, Enhanced
Caribbean Satellite

Pacific Satellite
Pacific Satellite
Pacific Satellite
Pacific Satellite

Hurricane.com - tracking the Tropics since 1994.

"Run from the water; hide from the wind."

The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Recent Headlines

(For our full hurricane and tropical storm news coverage view our hurricane news page.)
Join our Hurricane Forums to discuss the season and storms.

Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 200529
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this
system is possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive after that time. This low should
move generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)- ...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.5, -37.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 34-Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014


000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 34-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

000
WTNT21 KNHC 192030
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 300SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  37.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN





Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 34-Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192031
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but
tight swirl of low-level clouds.  Since the cyclone has been absent
any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being
declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time.  A blend of the 1800
UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity
of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass.
Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler
waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear.
Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so
prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it
merges with a front.

Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this
morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward
speed or 090/06.  Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate
eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure
during the next 24 hours.  The track should then bend southeastward
and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone
over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be
in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 39.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman




Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

000
FONT11 KNHC 192031
PWSAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN



Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Graphics- Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 20:33:13 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 21:05:45 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, is issuing advisories
on the remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United
States.

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development of this system later next week as it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Summary for Tropical Storm POLO (EP2/EP172014)- ...POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 the center of POLO was located near 20.3, -108.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm POLO Public Advisory Number 16A-Issued at 1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory Number 16-Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200230
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 



Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 16-Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200234
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

An SSM/I pass around 2200 UTC and late-day visible imagery indicated
that the center of Polo was exposed on the northeastern edge of the
deep convection. The cloud pattern has deteriorated quite a bit
during the past few hours, with little structure seen in the warming
cloud tops as they are pushed south and west of the center by about
30 kt of easterly shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to
50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. Steady weakening is forecast as the shear is
expected to continue and the cyclone will be moving into a drier
environment over gradually cooler SSTs during the next few days.
Polo should become a remnant low in about 3 days west of the Baja
California peninsula. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
downward from the previous one and is close to the latest IVCN
consensus.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/07 given the erratic
movement of the center in the last 12 to 18 hours. Polo should
gradually turn west-northwestward in the next 24 hours as a mid-
level ridge builds north of the tropical cyclone. Late in the
period, much of the guidance shows the shallow remnant low turning
south-southwestward as a low-level ridge to the west becomes the
dominant steering mechanism. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted
a little to the right in the first 48 hours given the center
position and motion, and lies a little north of a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF models. Late in the period, the NHC forecast has been
adjusted toward the south, but not as far south as the GFS and ECMWF
tracks.

Even with the slight northward shift in the track, tropical storm
force winds are likely to remain south of the Baja California
peninsula since Polo is now forecast to weaken a little faster.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 20.1N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Tropical Storm POLO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16-Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 200231
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  



Tropical Storm POLO Graphics- Tropical Storm POLO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2014 05:45:14 GMT

Tropical Storm POLO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2014 03:04:48 GMT

Remnants of ODILE Public Advisory Number 40-The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 900 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of low pressure about 480 miles south southeast of Honolulu is moving to the west at less than 10 mph. While thunderstorms continue to develop near this system, conditions are not conducive for tropical development.

* Formation chance trough 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday evening.
Since 1994 Hurricane.com has been providing tropical cyclone related information for the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Our philosophy has been to provide timely, relevant, and useful information in a format that provides the most information in the least bandwidth intensive format.

::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright �


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.