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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 042345
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located about 65 miles west-northwest of Bermuda.
An area of low pressure located about 850 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental
conditions are not conducive for development, and the low is
expected to dissipate in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
A broad low pressure area located about midway between the Cape
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not
particularly conducive for tropical cyclone formation, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur during the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)- ...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Oct 4 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 32.6, -65.9 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 29A-Issued at 800 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
000 WTNT31 KNHC 042344 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 65.9W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 65.9 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward to the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just northwest of Bermuda tonight, and begin to move away from the island on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). During the past hour, a 10-minute average wind speed of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda through tonight, with possible gusts to near hurricane force. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
000 WTNT21 KNHC 042046 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 66.4W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..290NE 400SE 350SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 66.4W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 33.8N 65.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.6N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.2N 56.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 42.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 46.1N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 49.7N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
000 WTNT41 KNHC 042104 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The satellite cloud pattern of Joaquin, especially the inner-core convection, has continued to erode during the past several hours. The Bermuda radar also indicates a very ragged-looking banded eye pattern. The initial intensity has been decreased to 85 kt for this advisory based on some dropsonde data from a WB-57 research aircraft that is part of the NASA Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment. Joaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 015/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Joaquin is expected to move toward the north-northeast tonight and and turn toward the northeast on Monday as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a ridge located to its east. By days 2-5, the hurricane should accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone moves into the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model guidance envelope. Joaquin should continue to steadily weaken during the next 48 hours or so, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone on days 3-5 as the cyclone moves over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic where the vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5 when the cyclone is forecast to be an extratropical low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 32.2N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 33.8N 65.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 35.6N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 37.3N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 39.2N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 42.5N 42.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 46.1N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 49.7N 18.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
000 FONT11 KNHC 042053 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Issued at 1100 AM HST SUN OCT 04 2015 SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 154.9W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, is issuing advisories on tropical storm Oho, located about 375 miles south of South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.
2. A remnant low, formerly tropical depression Eight-C, was centered about 1170 miles west southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii and moving slowly west. Isolated thunderstorms remained just northwest of the low but were disorganized. Atmospheric conditions do not favor redevelopment over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.
3. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure about 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized. However, environmental conditions may support tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it moves slowly north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon. Since 1994 Hurricane.com has been providing tropical cyclone related information for the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Our philosophy has been to provide timely, relevant, and useful information in a format that provides the most information in the least bandwidth intensive format.