Hurricane & Tropical Storm Recent Headlines(For our full hurricane and tropical storm news coverage view our hurricane news page.)
Join our Hurricane Forums to discuss the season and storms.
"Run from the water; hide from the wind."
The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 301129
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just north of the
Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the northeast and north of the center. Upper-level winds
are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development
while the system turns toward the northwest and north over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 30 Oct 2014 11:41:19 GMT
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300841 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 100.2W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300840 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300841 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 Deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Acapulco, Mexico, has become more concentrated overnight, and recent microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggest that the low-level center has become better defined. Therefore, the system is being designated as a tropical depression. The satellite data indicate that the center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.5 and 1.5, respectively. A blend of these estimates support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The depression is over warm water and expected to remain in a low shear environment during the next several days. The main limiting factor will be some drier air in the low to mid-levels. As a result, gradual strengthening is predicted during much of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little above the intensity guidance through the first couple of days. After 72 hours, the NHC forecast is in good agreement with the HWRF which brings the cyclone to hurricane strength in about 4 days. Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening after that time. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward later today as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 11.0N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300841 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 18(45) 2(47) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
No tropical cyclones are expected through late Friday night. Since 1994 Hurricane.com has been providing tropical cyclone related information for the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Our philosophy has been to provide timely, relevant, and useful information in a format that provides the most information in the least bandwidth intensive format.