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    Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 192313
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on
    Hurricane Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
    Islands.

    A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
    producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. The
    wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
    the next few days, and some development is possible while it
    approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
    Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the
    wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea
    just south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of
    circulation. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
    development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward
    at about 5 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
    is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next
    few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
    this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
    conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
    early next week while the wave moves westward over the eastern
    tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


    Remnants of Imelda Public Advisory Number 10-The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

    Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)- ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Humberto was located near 38.5, -58.7 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

    Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 29-Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 192032
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  29
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
    500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
    TONIGHT...
    ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST
    COAST OF THE U.S...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...38.5N 58.7W
    ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM NE OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
    located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 58.7 West.  Humberto is
    moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A slower north-
    northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday.  A turn
    toward the east-northeast is expected to commence by Friday night.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
    gusts.  The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a
    post-tropical cyclone tonight.
    
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380
    miles (610 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF:  Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
    continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
    these could continue to cause coastal flooding.
    
    Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
    the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
    Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
    
    These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
    and the Bermuda Weather Service.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
    
    


    Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 192032
    TCMAT4
     
    HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  58.7W AT 19/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  21 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
    64 KT....... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
    50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
    34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW.
    12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  58.7W AT 19/2100Z
    AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N  59.3W
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.4N  57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
    50 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
    34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 42.8N  55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 44.6N  51.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.6N  44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N  58.7W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
     
     
    


    Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 29-Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 192033
    TCDAT4
    
    Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  29
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
    500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    Humberto is almost a post-tropical cyclone.  Satellite images show
    a well-defined cold and warm front, but they do not appear to be
    fully connected to the center of circulation yet.  In addition, the
    cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection to
    the northwest of the exposed low-level center.  ASCAT data from
    earlier today indicated that the wind field of Humberto is very
    large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 330 n mi from
    the center and hurricane-force winds extending out to 70 n mi from
    the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt for
    this advisory.
    
    The cyclone is anticipated to become fully extratropical soon,
    within the next 6 to 12 hours.   Although weakening is forecast,
    Humberto is expected to be a large and powerful extratropical
    cyclone for a couple of days before it is absorbed by another
    extratropical low over the north Atlantic.  The NHC intensity
    forecast generally follows the guidance of the GFS model, which
    typically handles extratropical lows better than the tropical
    cyclone intensity guidance.
    
    Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt.  A slight turn to the
    left and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next
    12 to 24 hours as the cyclone rotates around the east and north
    sides of a mid- to upper-level low to its west.  After that time, a
    faster east-northeast or east motion is expected when the cyclone
    becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track
    forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the
    various consensus aids.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
    Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
    Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
    These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/2100Z 38.5N  58.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
     12H  20/0600Z 40.4N  57.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     24H  20/1800Z 42.8N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     36H  21/0600Z 44.6N  51.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     48H  21/1800Z 45.6N  44.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
    
    


    Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    FONT14 KNHC 192033
    PWSAT4
                                                                        
    HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29              
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
    38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)  15(15)  17(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
    HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X  17(17)  20(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
     
    ILE ST PIERRE  34  X  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
     
    BURGEO NFLD    34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    SYDNEY NS      34  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    SABLE ISLAND   34 43   8(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
    


    Hurricane Humberto Graphics- Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:35:23 GMT

    Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:24:55 GMT

    Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)- ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 17.7, -56.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

    Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 10A-Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 192358
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
    800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W
    ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
    Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * St. Maarten
    * St. Martin
    * St. Barthelemy
    * Saba and St. Eustatius
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.
    
    Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
    the progress of Jerry.
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
    by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,
    longitude 56.5 West.  Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
    17 mph (28 km/h).  A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
    decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On the
    forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
    Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
    and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
    gusts.  Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so, but some
    weakening is anticipated by this weekend.
    
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
    the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
    miles (130 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
    
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
    areas by early Friday.
    
    RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
    with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
    northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall
    may produce life-threatening flash floods.  Jerry is forecast to
    produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
    amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
    
    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
    northern Leeward Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    


    Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 192040
    TCMAT5
    
    HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BARBUDA
    * ANGUILLA
    * ST. MAARTEN
    * ST. MARTIN
    * ST. BARTHELEMY
    * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  55.8W AT 19/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
    64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  55.8W AT 19/2100Z
    AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  55.2W
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N  57.9W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N  60.8W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N  63.6W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N  65.8W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N  68.7W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N  68.5W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 33.0N  65.0W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  55.8W
    
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    
    
    


    Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 10-Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 192043
    TCDAT5
    
    Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  10
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
    500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central
    dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours.
    Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb
    flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt,
    suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye
    feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating
    that the earlier intensification has probably continued.  Thus, the
    initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is
    scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better
    estimate.
    
    The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before
    northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning.  The shear
    increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air
    to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone.
    Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing
    into Saturday.  Some re-strengthening is possible early next week
    as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude
    trough interaction.  The new NHC wind speed prediction has not
    changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect
    the above possibility.
    
    The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A
    large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to
    steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the
    next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the
    north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast
    follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the
    then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday,
    north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north-
    northeastward by Monday/Tuesday.  The guidance has moved to the
    northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger
    mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge.  The NHC forecast
    is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on
    the western side of the guidance envelope.
    
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
    northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
    possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/2100Z 17.5N  55.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
     12H  20/0600Z 18.4N  57.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
     24H  20/1800Z 19.5N  60.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
     36H  21/0600Z 20.7N  63.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
     48H  21/1800Z 21.9N  65.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
     72H  22/1800Z 24.9N  68.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
     96H  23/1800Z 28.0N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
    120H  24/1800Z 33.0N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    
    


    Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    FONT15 KNHC 192041
    PWSAT5
                                                                        
    HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                 
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
    17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  44(49)
    BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)
    BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
     
    SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
     
    GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
     
    PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    VIEQUES PR     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    SAINT THOMAS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    SABA           34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    BARBUDA        34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
    


    Hurricane Jerry Graphics- Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 00:19:53 GMT

    Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:32:06 GMT


    Hurricane Advisory 1
    Hurricane Advisory 2
    Hurricane Advisory 3
    Hurricane Advisory 4
    Hurricane Advisory 5

    Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


    NHC Eastern North Pacific

    Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

    Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 192341
    TWOEP

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
    Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
    southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
    Lorena, located near the Islas Marias Islands.

    Thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low
    pressure located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
    North Pacific remains disorganized. Some slow development of this
    system is possible during the next day or two while it remains
    nearly stationary. Further development is unlikely after that time
    as the system interacts with and is possibly absorbed by Kiko.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
    Mexico in a day or two. However, development into a tropical
    cyclone during the next five days appears unlikely.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven


    Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)- ...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.3, -129.3 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

    Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 30-Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ33 KNHC 192045
    TCPEP3
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  30
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
    200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    ...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.3N 129.3W
    ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
    located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 129.3 West.  Kiko is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northwest
    motion is expected later today through Friday night.  A
    west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend and into early
    next week.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
    with higher gusts.  Slow re-strengthening is forecast for the next
    few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength within the next few
    days.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    


    Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 30-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ23 KNHC 192045
    TCMEP3
     
    TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT....... 30NE  90SE  20SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
    AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.1W
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 129.3W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
     
     
    


    Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 30-Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ43 KNHC 192045
    TCDEP3
    
    Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  30
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
    200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit
    rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the
    last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection
    and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds.  Since then,
    convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band
    appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the
    tropical storm.  ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only
    35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since
    that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt.
    
    Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity,
    little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the
    guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical
    models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry
    air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever
    reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly
    than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could
    encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls
    for weakening.
    
    Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the
    northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to
    move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the
    strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in
    particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by
    day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor
    changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model
    consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than
    usual.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
     24H  20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
     36H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
     48H  21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
     72H  22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
     96H  23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
    120H  24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    


    Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    FOPZ13 KNHC 192045
    PWSEP3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30             
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
    16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
    45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    15N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)
     
    20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)
     
    10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  20(22)  17(39)   5(44)
    15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)
    15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
     
    20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)  10(14)   7(21)   3(24)
    20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
     
    15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)
    15N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
    15N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
     
    20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)
    20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
    20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
     
    15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
    


    Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics- Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:51:54 GMT

    Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:45:12 GMT

    Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)- ...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.1, -110.4 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

    Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 10-Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ34 KNHC 192053
    TCPEP4
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number  10
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
    300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    ...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.1N 110.4W
    ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
    located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 110.4 West.  Mario is
    moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general
    motion is expected tonight and early Friday.  A turn toward the
    north is anticipated by late Friday.  After that time, Mario could
    turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    


    Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ24 KNHC 192052
    TCMEP4
     
    TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   9 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
    50 KT.......  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW  60NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
    AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.4W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
     
     
    


    Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 10-Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ44 KNHC 192053
    TCDEP4
    
    Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  10
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
    300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the
    low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection.
    In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this
    afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend
    of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from
    TAFB.
    
    A significant change to the track forecast was required based on
    the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now
    forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days.
    The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much
    Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is
    further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very
    near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC
    forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5
    days, but confidence in the forecast remains low.
    For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of
    the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the
    first 24 h, given current trends.
    
    Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the
    next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce
    substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of
    significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations
    are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is
    forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will
    likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is
    close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast
    period.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
     12H  20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
     24H  20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
     36H  21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
     48H  21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
     72H  22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
     96H  23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
    120H  24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    


    Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    FOPZ14 KNHC 192053
    PWSEP4
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10            
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
    LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
     
    CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
     
    ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    20N 110W       34  X  15(15)  51(66)   5(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
    20N 110W       50  X   1( 1)  20(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
    20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   7( 8)  10(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
     
    ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
     
    25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   1(16)
     
    25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
    


    Tropical Storm Mario Graphics- Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:54:20 GMT

    Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:51:54 GMT

    Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)- ...CENTER OF LORENA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 6:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 21.9, -107.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

    Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 10A-Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ35 KNHC 192331
    TCPEP5
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
    600 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    ...CENTER OF LORENA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.9N 107.3W
    ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe
    
    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
    San Evaristo
    * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to
    Puerto Cortes
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Manzanillo to Punta Mita
    
    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
    hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
    to completion.
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected within the warning area.
    
    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.
    
    Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
    progress of Lorena.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
    for portions of this area later tonight or Friday morning.
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
    located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 107.3 West. Lorena is
    moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn to the
    west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
    at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday.  On the
    forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific
    waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight,
    pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
    peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula
    Friday night and Saturday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
    gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
    Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches
    the Baja California peninsula.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
    and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.
    
    WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
    the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for a few
    more hours.  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
    warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday,
    with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.  Hurricane
    and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
    watch area by Saturday.
    
    RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
    amounts through the weekend:
    
    Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
    Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
    rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
    
    Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
    amounts around 6 inches.
    
    SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
    southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
    peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
    cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    


    Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    208 
    WTPZ25 KNHC 192035
    TCMEP5
     
    TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
     
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
     
    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
    BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.
     
    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
    EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
    TO SAN EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
    PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
     
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
     
    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
    SAN EVARISTO
    * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO
    PUERTO CORTES
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
     
    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
     
    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.
     
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF LORENA.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
    50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  60SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
    AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.7W
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 107.0W
     
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
     
     
    
    


    Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 10-Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ45 KNHC 192037
    TCDEP5
    
    Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  10
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
    300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019
    
    The center and structure of Lorena was extremely difficult to
    determine this morning after the core of the tropical cyclone
    interacted with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.
    The aircraft that was scheduled to investigate Lorena had mechanical
    issues and was unable to complete its mission.  Thankfully, a
    fortuitous GMI microwave overpass around 1800 UTC and more recent
    ASCAT data has provided some clarity on the location and structure
    of the cyclone.  According to that data, the center is located just
    southwest of the Islas Marias, and the ASCAT revealed peak winds of
    45-50 kt.  Given the typical undersampling of the ASCAT for in
    small tropical cyclones, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt,
    which is between the peak scatterometer winds and the higher
    satellite estimates. Since the microwave data suggests that the
    inner core appears to be somewhat intact, some strengthening is
    expected while the cyclone moves over warm water and remains
    in a low shear environment during the next 24 hours or so.  As a
    result, Lorena is forecast to be a hurricane when it pass near or
    over the southern Baja peninsula.  After that time, interaction
    with land is likely to cause some decrease in wind speed.
    
    Lorena has been moving faster than expected, and the initial motion
    estimate is 315/11 kt.  The cyclone should turn west-northwestward
    tonight as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and
    Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest.  If Lorena remains separated
    from Mario (as shown by the latest ECMWF), a turn back toward the
    northwest is expected as the storm moves around the southwestern
    portion of the ridge.  The new NHC track forecast lies between the
    HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest ECMWF.
    
    Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
    exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
    issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southern Baja
    California peninsula.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
    of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
    rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
    
    2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
    portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening.
    
    3. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring
    hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the
    southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday.  A Hurricane
    Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and
    property should be rushed to completion.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/2100Z 21.6N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
     12H  20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
     24H  20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
     36H  21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
     48H  21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
     72H  22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
     96H  23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    


    Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10-Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
    
    000
    FOPZ15 KNHC 192036
    PWSEP5
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
    2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
    LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
     
    PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)
    PUNTA EUGENIA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    P ABREOJOS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)  23(29)   2(31)   X(31)
    P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
    P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    CABO SAN LUCAS 34  4  78(82)  10(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
    CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X  40(40)  15(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
    CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X  16(16)   7(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
     
    SAN JOSE CABO  34  2  62(64)  11(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
    SAN JOSE CABO  50  1  30(31)   9(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
    SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    LA PAZ         34  X   8( 8)  23(31)   2(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
    LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
    LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    LORETO         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)
     
    BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
     
    GUAYMAS        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
     
    HUATABAMPO     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    CULIACAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
    ISLAS MARIAS   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
     
    20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    25N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  16(24)   1(25)   X(25)
    25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
    


    Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics- Tropical Storm Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 23:31:34 GMT

    Tropical Storm Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:58:23 GMT
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