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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291739
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located east of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Eight,
located southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

A weak trough of low pressure located just offshore of the central
coast of Texas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent
coastal areas. Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the
system drifts southwestward during the next day or so. For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa tonight. Conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)- ...GASTON TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 29 the center of GASTON was located near 31.2, -55.2 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 29-Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016


000
WTNT32 KNHC 292043
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016

...GASTON TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 55.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1665 MI...2675 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 55.2 West. Gaston is moving
toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  The hurricane is
expected to move generally to the northeast or east-northeast at an
increasing forward speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 292042
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  55.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  55.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  55.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.6N  54.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N  52.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.2N  50.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.6N  48.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.7N  39.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 38.5N  32.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 40.0N  28.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N  55.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 29-Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292044
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016

Gaston's satellite presentation continues to slowly degrade, with
the latest microwave data suggesting it could be undergoing an
eyewall replacement.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt in
accordance with the latest satellite estimates.  Little change in
intensity is expected for the next couple of days while Gaston
remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear, although the
eyewall cycle adds a wrinkle to the forecast.  In a couple of days,
a gradual increase in shear, along with a decrease in SSTs, should
cause a more significant weakening. Intensity guidance is a bit
lower than 6 hours ago, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
follows that trend.

Gaston appears to be moving a bit faster, now north-northeastward at
3 kt. Due to a ridge becoming established to the southeast of the
cyclone, Gaston should accelerate to the east-northeast over the
next few days.  The end of the forecast is tricky, with some
uncertainties over how Gaston interacts with the mid-latitude
westerlies and the strength of an eastern Atlantic ridge.  While
the overall guidance suite has shifted somewhat to the north at days
4 and 5, the ECMWF has been more consistent during the past few
days and has stayed farther south.  Thus, the new forecast is on
the southern side of the guidance envelope, to the south of the
model consensus at long range.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 31.2N  55.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 31.6N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 32.2N  52.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 33.2N  50.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 34.6N  48.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 37.7N  39.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 38.5N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 40.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake




Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 292043
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   6(32)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Hurricane GASTON Graphics- Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:45:00 GMT

Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:08:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)- ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of EIGHT was located near 33.6, -74.0 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT33 KNHC 292050
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should
monitor the progress of the depression.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 74.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  This
general motion with a slower forward speed is expected later
this evening, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be
near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early
Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expecting within the warning
area, beginning by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT23 KNHC 292050
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  74.0W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  74.0W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  73.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 34.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.6N  75.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 35.4N  74.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 36.7N  72.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 40.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  74.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292051
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Satellite and radar images suggest that the depression is becoming
better organized.  Convection has formed in the northwestern
quadrant, with some banding features in the northern semicircle of
the cyclone.  Aircraft data, however, show that the pressure has
stayed the same as 6 hours ago and the winds have not increased.
Thus the initial wind speed remains 30 kt.  This burst of convection
should eventually lead to some intensification as environmental
factors (less shear and more moisture) are forecast to become a
little more favorable. Most of the guidance are in good agreement on
this scenario on gradual intensification, and the latest forecast is
close to the previous one and the model consensus.

The depression is still moving northwestward at about 6 kt.
There has been no change to the synoptic reasoning from the last
advisory cycle. The cyclone should slow down and turn northward
tomorrow as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the
North Carolina coast.  In about 36 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave
trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to
erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into
the westerlies.  The latest NHC prediction is very close to the
previous one, between the model consensus and the GFS model.  The
cyclone should dissipate or be absorbed within a large extratropical
cyclone in about 4 days.

Due to the close pass of the cyclone to the Outer Banks, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from
Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 33.6N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 34.0N  74.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 34.6N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 35.4N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 36.7N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 40.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
FONT13 KNHC 292050
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016               
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   7( 7)   7(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  3  25(28)  11(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   9( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  1  17(18)   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  1  12(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics- Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:52:52 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:09:10 GMT

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC-Issued at 557 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)- ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of NINE was located near 24.0, -84.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT34 KNHC 292056
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.8 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h)
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday night
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center will continue to move away from western
Cuba, and move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next
48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday.
Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 12 inches are possible over
western Cuba.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.  Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are
possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Thursday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible along the west
coast of Florida from Naples to Steinhatchee.  This rainfall may
cause flooding and flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT24 KNHC 292051
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  84.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  84.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  84.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.2N  85.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.6N  86.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N  86.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.3N  83.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N  84.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 



Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 292150
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH OCEAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized
this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to
the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection.  Observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity
at 30 kt at this time.  Given the system's currently disorganized
appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much
strengthening in the short term.  Since the cyclone will be moving
over very warm waters and in an environment of moderate westerly
shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next
couple of days.  When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast,
increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.

Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt.  There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States.  This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida.  The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 24.0N  84.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 24.2N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 24.6N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 26.8N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 29.3N  83.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 292053
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016               
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   7(18)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   3(16)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   1(17)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   1(17)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   1(17)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   1(29)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  10(22)   1(23)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  16(31)   1(32)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  16(31)   X(31)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)  11(37)   X(37)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  13(29)   X(29)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  22(26)   9(35)   X(35)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   7(25)   X(25)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)   X(21)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   8(21)   X(21)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)   X(16)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)  11(17)   2(19)   X(19)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)  17(26)   3(29)   X(29)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  24(31)   5(36)   X(36)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  30(36)   7(43)   X(43)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   5(27)   X(27)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  22(27)   7(34)   X(34)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  25(33)   3(36)   X(36)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)  29(44)   3(47)   X(47)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  19(26)   2(28)   X(28)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)  14(29)   X(29)   X(29)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HAVANA         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



Tropical Depression NINE Graphics- Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:58:01 GMT

Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:09:41 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lester, located well to the west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form toward the end of
the week a few hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
development of this system while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Summary for Hurricane LESTER (EP3/EP132016)- ...LESTER BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 29 the center of LESTER was located near 18.0, -130.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Hurricane LESTER Public Advisory Number 21-Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 292031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESTER ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

...LESTER BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 130.5W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lester was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 130.5 West. Lester is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Lester is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in strength
is possible during the next 12 hours.  A gradual weakening trend is
expected to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Hurricane LESTER Forecast Advisory Number 21-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 292031
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 130.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 130.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 129.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 132.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 134.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 137.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.1N 139.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 19.6N 148.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 153.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 130.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 



Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 21-Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 292033
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester continues to strengthen.  Visible and enhanced BD-curve
infrared imagery show a symmetric, thick, inner core ring consisting
of cloud tops of -70 to -75C and an impressive fanning outflow
pattern.  A blend of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity to 115
kt, making Lester a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A low vertical shear environment should
persist during the next several days, and the sea surface
temperatures are expected to remain around 26C as the cyclone moves
along the climatolgically oriented eastern Pacific SST gradient.
Statistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the hurricane
may have already peaked, but there still could be some intensity
fluctuations during the next 12 hours.  Afterward, the cyclone
should gradually weaken, most likely caused by an increasingly
marginal thermodynamic environment and a decreasing oceanic heat
content.  The intensity forecast is nudged a little higher due to
the current intensification trend, and is close to the intensity
multi-model consensus.

Lester's initial motion estimate is a steadfast 270/12.  A
subtropical high anchored to the north of Lester should influence a
generally westward course during the next 3 days.  Through the
remaining forecast period, the cyclone is expected to gradually turn
west-northwestward in response to some binary interaction with
Madeline situated to the southwest of Lester.  The official forecast
is based on this scenario and sides with the TVCN consensus model
and is basically an update of the previous package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 18.0N 130.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 18.0N 132.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 18.1N 134.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 18.0N 137.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 18.1N 139.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 19.6N 148.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 21.2N 153.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Hurricane LESTER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 292032
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016               
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 135W       34  1  32(33)   8(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
20N 135W       50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  33(39)  14(53)   X(53)   X(53)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   1(16)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  39(40)  19(59)   1(60)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  14(25)   X(25)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  34(35)  18(53)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  22(46)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  



Hurricane LESTER Graphics- Hurricane LESTER 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:34:23 GMT

Hurricane LESTER 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:10:13 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Hurricane Madeline Number 13-Issued at "2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016"

Hurricane Madeline Advisory Number 013-
Issued at 1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 145.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 



Hurricane Madeline Forecast/Advisory Number 013-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 145.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

Hurricane Madeline Forecast Discussion Number 013-Issued at 1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 18.6N 145.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 19.0N 146.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 148.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 18.7N 152.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 18.0N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 18.4N 160.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 165.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard

Hurricane Madeline Probabilities Number 013-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

Hurricane Madeline-Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

Madeline-Issued at 1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180:

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii is
issuing advisories on Hurricane Madeline, located about 675 miles
east of Hilo, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPCP5 and WMO header
WTPA35 PHFO.

2. A weak low 470 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to
produce disorganized convection. Development, if any, would be
slow to occur as this area slowly drifts west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 30 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday
morning.


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