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"Run from the water; hide from the wind."
The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm BARRY (AT2/AL022013)-
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON...
As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19
the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -95.2
with movement W at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 10-Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
000 WTNT32 KNHC 192043 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 95.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT SINCE RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
000 WTNT22 KNHC 192042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
000 WTNT42 KNHC 192043 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON. SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE. BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.6N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
000
FONT12 KNHC 192043
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 14 34 NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 29 52 46 NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 68 33 19 NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 2 1 NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
VERACRUZ MX 34 37 5(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
VERACRUZ MX 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
