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2016 Hurricane Names


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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 312304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located well west of the Azores, on Tropical Depression
Eight, located east of North Carolina, and on Tropical Storm
Hermine, located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles west of
the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave is expected to be in an
environment of very dry air for the next few days, which should
prevent significant development during that time. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for slow development
on Sunday or Monday when the wave is near the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)- ...GASTON WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 31 the center of GASTON was located near 35.0, -46.9 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 37-Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016


000
WTNT32 KNHC 312042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016

...GASTON WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 46.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Flores and Corvo in the western Azores and for Faial, Pico,
Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 46.9 West.  Gaston is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A turn toward the
east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected
tonight, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near the western and
central Azores on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Gaston is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 37-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 312041
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES AND FOR FAIAL...PICO...
GRACIOSA...SAO JORGE...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...GRACIOSA...SAO JORGE...AND TERCEIRA IN THE
CENTRAL AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N  46.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N  46.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N  47.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N  44.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.7N  39.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N  34.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.0N  30.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N  25.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N  46.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 37-Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 312043
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016

The satellite presentation of Gaston has gradually decayed today,
with the eye becoming more ragged in infrared imagery.  The initial
intensity estimate is 90 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak
Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Steady weakening is
expected during the next few days while SSTs decrease steadily along
the forecast track and the shear increases above 20 kt by 48 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and is
close to the latest intensity model consensus, and now shows Gaston
weakening to a tropical storm as it approaches the Azores on Friday.
Gaston should lose tropical characteristics by 72 hours and
dissipate by 96 hours as shown by the global models.

The initial motion estimate is 055/16, and Gaston is expected to
move east-northeastward to eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies
through dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is a little north of
the previous one and is along the middle of the guidance envelope
but faster than the TVCN consensus, trending toward the faster FSU
Superensemble.

Based on the new forecast, a tropical storm watch has been issued
for portions of the western and central Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 35.0N  46.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 36.3N  44.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 37.7N  39.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 38.5N  34.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 39.0N  30.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 41.0N  25.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 312042
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)  15(15)  45(60)   4(64)   X(64)   X(64)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  



Hurricane GASTON Graphics- Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:42:42 GMT

Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:07:41 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)- ...WEAKER DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 the center of EIGHT was located near 36.3, -71.9 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 14-Issued at 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT33 KNHC 312035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

...WEAKER DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 71.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).
This general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is still possible, and the
depression could become a tropical storm tomorrow before losing
tropical characteristics on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 14-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT23 KNHC 312035
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N  71.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N  71.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N  72.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.7N  69.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 39.9N  64.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 42.0N  57.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.0N  51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N  71.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 



Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 14-Issued at 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT43 KNHC 312035
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

This depression has been a challenging cyclone.  After the earlier
apparent improvement in the cloud pattern, recent satellite images
indicate the system has actually become less organized.  While there
is a broken band in the eastern semicircle, the depression looks
elongated, with a less well-defined center.  The initial wind speed
is reduced to 25 kt on this advisory, which is backed up by ASCAT
data of 20 to 25 kt.

I'm beginning to think that the long-forecast intensification is not
going to occur with this depression.  Other than persistence, this
idea is supported by the higher shear values in the recent SHIPS and
global model guidance.  While I'm not ready to totally abandon any
strengthening, the new NHC forecast is reduced 5 to 10 kt from
the previous one and is below the model consensus.  The cyclone
should become extratropical within 2 days, and be absorbed within a
larger frontal zone in 3 days.  An alternative, but realistic,
scenario, is that the cyclone becomes a remnant low tomorrow due to
marginal environmental conditions causing a lack of organized deep
convection.

The cyclone is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. It should
continue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly
flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough.  No significant
change to the previous forecast was made.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 36.3N  71.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 37.7N  69.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 39.9N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 42.0N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  02/1800Z 44.0N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
FONT13 KNHC 312035
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016               
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics- Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:36:42 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:08:16 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)- ...HERMINE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 the center of HERMINE was located near 25.5, -87.4 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm HERMINE Public Advisory Number 13-Issued at 400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT34 KNHC 312048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...HERMINE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 87.4W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been extended
westward along the Florida panhandle to Destin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West.  Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall
occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon.  Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday.  These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida.  A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 13-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT24 KNHC 312047
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
WESTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO DESTIN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO DESTIN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO DESTIN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARINELAND FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM GEORGIA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  87.4W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  87.4W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  87.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N  87.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.1N  86.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.0N  85.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.0N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.5N  77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N  74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 39.5N  72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N  87.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 



Tropical Storm HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 13-Issued at 400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 312052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

The system appears better organized on satellite images than it was
yesterday, with more evidence of convective banding features.
However, based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data the center is
still situated near the northern edge of the main convective cloud
mass.  Also, data from the aircraft show a very asymmetric wind
field with all of the strong winds occurring over the eastern and
southeastern portions of the circulation.  The advisory intensity
is set to 40 kt based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the
Hurricane Hunters.  Hermine should be in an environment of
moderate west-southwesterly shear until it nears the coast, when
the dynamical models show increasing shear.  The official intensity
forecast has been nudged upward a bit, and there is a distinct
possibility that Hermine could become a hurricane before landfall.
The predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on
the latest global model forecasts, which show the cyclone becoming
embedded within a front over the eastern United States by 72 hours.

The aircraft data show a rather broad area of light winds near the
center, making the actual center fixes a little uncertain.
However, the best estimate of initial motion is north-northeastward
or 030/6 kt.  A developing mid-level trough over the southeastern
United States should cause Hermine to move north-northeastward at
increasing forward speed over the next couple of days.  The GFS and
ECMWF global models have shifted westward from their previous
predictions, and so has the new official forecast.  This required a
westward extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm
warning along the Florida panhandle.  Later in the forecast period,
there is significant uncertainty in the track of the system, which
will depend on how the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a
mid-tropospheric cutoff low that develops over the northeastern
United States.  The new official forecast keeps the cyclone closer
to the east coast from 72-120 hours in deference to the latest GFS
solution.

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
system.  In addition to the normal uncertainty in track and
intensity forecasts, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely to
extend along the Gulf coast well to the east and south of
the path of the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 25.5N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 26.5N  87.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 28.1N  86.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 30.0N  85.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 32.0N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  03/1800Z 36.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1800Z 39.0N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/1800Z 39.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 312049
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016               
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   4(18)
ISLIP NY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   3(18)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   4(20)
NWS EARLE NJ   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   2(16)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   2(20)
PHILADELPHIA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)   3(24)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)   2(23)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  14(24)   3(27)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  12(24)   2(26)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  11(24)   1(25)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  14(26)   3(29)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)   3(32)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  12(28)   2(30)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
PAX RIVER NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  14(31)   2(33)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   7(24)   X(24)
CHARLOTTESVIL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  10(33)   1(34)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
RICHMOND VA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)   4(30)   X(30)
DANVILLE VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)  11(36)   1(37)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  10(36)   1(37)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   9(35)   1(36)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   7(35)   X(35)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   2(29)   X(29)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  35(36)   3(39)   X(39)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
RALEIGH NC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   5(42)   X(42)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
ROCKY MT NC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   5(28)   1(29)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  37(41)   2(43)   X(43)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)
FAYETTEVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)   1(31)   X(31)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   4(35)   X(35)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   3(32)   X(32)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)   2(32)   X(32)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)   2(38)   X(38)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  36(39)   1(40)   X(40)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  33(37)   1(38)   X(38)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  37(46)   X(46)   X(46)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  30(45)   X(45)   X(45)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  35(41)   1(42)   X(42)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  35(42)   1(43)   X(43)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  33(43)   1(44)   X(44)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  28(46)   X(46)   X(46)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  23(29)  21(50)   X(50)   X(50)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)  19(48)   X(48)   X(48)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)
AUGUSTA GA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)  10(10)  28(38)  15(53)   X(53)   X(53)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  23(42)   4(46)   X(46)   X(46)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   3( 3)  25(28)  29(57)   4(61)   X(61)   X(61)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  18(37)   4(41)   X(41)   X(41)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  20(42)   4(46)   X(46)   X(46)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  12(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   6( 6)  19(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NAPLES FL      34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
VENICE FL      34  2   7( 9)   9(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
TAMPA FL       34  1   9(10)  14(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1  11(12)  30(42)   6(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  1  10(11)  48(59)  12(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)  23(23)  10(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  1  13(14)  49(63)  10(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)  23(23)   7(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  2  29(31)  42(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   1( 1)  30(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  4  45(49)  29(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   5( 5)  22(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  1  23(24)  37(61)   3(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   1( 1)  24(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  11(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
COLUMBUS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  1   4( 5)  15(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  1   5( 6)  14(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  5  28(33)  10(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



Tropical Storm HERMINE Graphics- Tropical Storm HERMINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:49:40 GMT

Tropical Storm HERMINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:08:50 GMT

Tropical Storm HERMINE Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics- Tropical Storm HERMINE Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:23:52 GMT

Tropical Storm HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map- Tropical Storm HERMINE Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:51:46 GMT

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL-Issued at 542 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL-Issued at 615 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL-Issued at 617 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 /517 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

Local Statement for Atlanta, GA-Issued at 703 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312309
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Lester, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Future advisories on Lester will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are located a few hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the
low moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A broad area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is expected to drift westward during the next few days,
and any development should be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



Summary for Hurricane LESTER (EP3/EP132016)- ...CATEGORY 4 LESTER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...NEXT ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 31 the center of LESTER was located near 18.0, -139.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Hurricane LESTER Public Advisory Number 29-Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 312036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESTER ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

...CATEGORY 4 LESTER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...
...NEXT ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 139.9W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Lester.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lester was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 139.9 West.  Lester is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue for the next 24 hours.  A turn toward the west-northwest
is forecast on Thursday.  On the forecast track, Lester will move
into the central Pacific basin this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lester is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Lester.  Future information on Lester can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header
WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Hurricane LESTER Forecast Advisory Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 312035
TCMEP3

HURRICANE LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESTER.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 139.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.6N 143.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.2N 146.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.8N 149.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 154.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 159.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N 164.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 139.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LESTER.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON LESTER CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER
WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 29-Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 312037
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

Lester's satellite appearance has not changed much since the last
advisory.  Although the eye has shrunk a little it remains quite
warm, and the convective ring around the eye still has tops colder
than -70C.  The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Lester
has some annular characteristics, with little convective banding.
Given the forecast track through a region of SSTs of 26-27C and in
low shear, steady weakening is expected through the forecast period.
Given the annular structure, the NHC forecast remains above most of
the guidance through much of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11.  The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Lester will continue to be steered westward
and then turn west-northwestward by a mid-level ridge centered north
of the Hawaiian Islands through the forecast period.  The track
models remain in generally good agreement on this scenario, but
there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance
near the Hawaiian Islands.  The GFS and UKMET models are along the
southern edge of the main guidance envelope, with a track near or
over the islands, while the HWRF, GFDL, and COAMPS-TC are farther
north.  The NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one,
and lies very close to the multi-model consensus through the period.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts
there could be along the island chain given the track forecast
uncertainty in the 3 to 5 day period.  The NASA Gulfstream-V jet is
flying a synoptic surveillance mission around Lester to acquire
additional data for tonight's 00Z global model cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 18.0N 139.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 18.2N 141.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 18.6N 143.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 19.2N 146.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 19.8N 149.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 21.4N 154.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 23.2N 159.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 25.0N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Hurricane LESTER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 312036
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016               
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 140W       34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 145W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 145W       34  1  33(34)  41(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
20N 145W       50  X   4( 4)  28(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
20N 145W       64  X   1( 1)  14(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  54(59)  24(83)   X(83)   X(83)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  25(48)   X(48)   X(48)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)  45(78)   X(78)   X(78)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  34(40)   X(40)   X(40)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  45(48)   4(52)   X(52)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   2(19)   X(19)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)   7(37)   X(37)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   9(34)   X(34)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
BRADSHAW AAF   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  20(51)   X(51)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)   X(19)
21N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   9(29)   X(29)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
KAILUA-KONA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  22(45)   1(46)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)
KAHULUI        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  27(34)   2(36)
21N 158W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
21N 158W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   3(29)
BARKING SANDS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
BARKING SANDS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)  19(48)   X(48)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)
HANA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  23(41)   1(42)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)
LANAI CITY     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  28(44)   1(45)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)
KAUNAKAKAI     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  31(40)   2(42)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)
HONOLULU       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  31(40)   2(42)
JOINT BASE PHH 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)
JOINT BASE PHH 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   4(37)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
LIHUE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)
20N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   8(27)
25N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
25N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   6(31)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
NIIHAU         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)
21N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
21N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 
NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  11(25)
NIHOA          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  14(25)
BUOY 51101     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
22N 164W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
 
NECKER         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
 
20N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
25N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
GARDNER PINN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  



Hurricane LESTER Graphics- Hurricane LESTER 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:36:55 GMT

Hurricane LESTER 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:09:24 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Hurricane Madeline Number 22-Issued at "2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016"

Hurricane Madeline Advisory Number 022-
Issued at 1100 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 154.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 



Hurricane Madeline Forecast/Advisory Number 022-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 154.2W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

Hurricane Madeline Forecast Discussion Number 022-Issued at 1100 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 18.6N 154.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 155.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 158.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.8N 160.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.8N 163.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.9N 168.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.0N 173.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 18.4N 177.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Wroe

Hurricane Madeline Probabilities Number 022-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

Hurricane Madeline-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

Madeline-Issued at 1100 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180:

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii is
issuing advisories on Hurricane Madeline, under AWIPS header
TCPCP5 and WMO header WTPA35 PHFO, and on the web at:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc

2. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing
advisories on Hurricane Lester, located about 1050 miles east of
Hilo, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33
KNHC, and on the web at: http://www.hurricanes.gov. Lester is
forecast to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area
of responsibility later today.

3. A surface low located around 630 miles southwest of Honolulu,
Hawaii is slowly tracking toward the west. Isolated thunderstorms
developing around the low showed no signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to inhibit tropical cyclone
formation over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Friday
morning.


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