Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;214146
ABNT20 KNHC 051125
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$ 
FORECASTER KNABB


Expires:No;;213390
AXNT20 KNHC 051055
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE....
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 16.5N 35.3W AT 
05/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1205 KM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS 
OF 17N35.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. WARMING CLOUD 
TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT STILL LINGERING CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. GLOBAL 
FORECAST MODELS MOVE BERTHA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 23N 
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN THE LOW 
CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF 
YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AT THIS TIME.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 
19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE WATERS 
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 72W AND 75W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT
WAS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SIX HOURS AGO EITHER HAS 
DISSIPATED COMPLETELY OR IT HAS MOVED WESTWARD FROM COSTA RICA 
AND NICARAGUA MORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 11N20W 16N29W 12N34W 8N40W 5N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W. THIS AREA 
OF PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ALONG 
THE AFRICA COAST SIX HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 6W AND 24W...
AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 53W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTH 
TEXAS NEAR 29N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 26N103W IN NORTH CENTRAL 
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO 20N103W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 
95W AND THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXTENDS FROM THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 
26N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND IN
A LINE ABOUT 30 NM WIDE FROM THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N79W TO 
26N79W TO 29N77W TO 32N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 28N77W TO THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
NORTHWARD TO 20N85W AND 26N83W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG
12N82W 18N80W BEYOND 22N78W IN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS EVERYTHING WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS 
UNDER THIS RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ONE 
CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 
82W AND 83W. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W.
THE 60W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT BRINGING LARGE AMOUNTS OF 
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N51W TO 31N53W TO 27N55W
TO 20N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N47W TO 28N50W TO 25N56W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N45W BEYOND 
33N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 
29N31W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 26N AND 40W WITH 
THE 29N31W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 
32N TO 33N BETWEEN 27W AND 36W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N61W TO 28N77W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N.
$$
MT