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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;082325
ABNT20 KNHC 231129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles east of
the Windward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kirk, located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located between Bermuda and the Bahamas
continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
The strong upper-level winds currently affecting the system are
expected to diminish, and this could favor some development during
the next couple of days. The low is forecast to move westward and
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean and by Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast
to strengthen again, likely limiting the development.  By then,
the system is expected to be moving by the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic
Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or
tropical development during the upcoming week.  First, a non-
tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with
some associated showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the
central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front
late Tuesday or Wednesday.  Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A second non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form
along the central Atlantic cold front by Wednesday several hundred
miles west of the Azores.  Conditions appear conducive for this
system to also acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by
the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Expires:No;;083287
AXNT20 KNHC 231207
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...Special Features...

Tropical Storm Kirk centered near 9.1N 28.0W at 23/0900 UTC or
400 nm SSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some 
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.
Weakening is likely during the middle to latter part of the week.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N-12N between 
25W-32W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Eleven centered near 14.5N 55.0W at 23/0900
UTC or 360 nm ENE of the Windward Islands moving NW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected until the system dissipates in a day
or so. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-15N 
between 52W-55W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

Satellite imagery indicates that a non-tropical low pressure 
system currently located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the 
Azores is producing gale-force winds with some associated showers 
and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for this system to 
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the 
next day or so while meandering over the central Atlantic Ocean, 
and the low could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before 
it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front late Tuesday or 
Wednesday. The system has a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 
KNHC for more information.

A cold front extends from a 1004 mb low pressure located N of the
area near 34N46W to 31N40W to 24N50W to 27N60W. The most recent 
scatterometer data provide observations of minimal gale-force 
winds N of 30N within 60 nm E of front with seas 11-13 ft. These 
conditions are expected to decrease below gale shortly at 23/1200
UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 03N-16N and is moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in 
TPW imagery. Model analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough 
along 44W. Isolated moderate convection is located from 03N-14N 
between 40W-50W. 

A Central American tropical wave has its axis along 89W from 08N-
20N, moving west around 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with 
this wave is well depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery 
shows abundant moisture in its environment. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is south of 20N between 85W-92W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 
10N20W. It continues west of T.S. Kirk near 06N30W to 05N34W. The
ITCZ begins near 05N34W to 04N40W to 05N44W, then resumes near 
05N48W to the South American coast near 04N51W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical wave and cyclones across 
the area, widely scattered moderate convection is located S of 75
the monsoon from 04N-11N between 10W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level cyclonic circulation is centered near 25N87W. This
feature is enhancing convection across the eastern Gulf waters 
mainly along 84W. To the west, a surface trough is analyzed along 
91W from 24N-29N. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. A 
cold front is entering the northwest Gulf enhancing convection 
north of 25N and west of 95W. This front is likely to stall and 
dissipate today. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or
less will prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico through the 
middle of next week. A surface trough will develop over the 
Yucatan peninsula each evening, shift W over the SW Gulf each 
night, then dissipate by morning. Moderate to fresh winds will 
accompany this trough. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across Central America, and a portion 
of the wave's convection is over the W Caribbean. Please see the 
Tropical Waves section for more details.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance convection over portions of Panama and the
waters of the southwest Caribbean from the coasts of Panama and
Costa Rica northward to 13N and eastward to 78W. Plenty of 
moisture will persist over the extreme southwest Caribbean, Panama
and Costa Rica through the weekend. Elsewhere, fresh to strong 
winds prevail over the central Caribbean. These winds will 
diminish across most of the basin by tonight. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, there are two tropical cyclones and a tropical wave
between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please 
see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections for more 
details.

A broad 1010 mb low is centered near 28N67W. A surface trough 
runs through the low from 30N64W to the low center to 26N72W. 
Scattered showers are noted along the trough and near the low. 
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit 
development today, but conditions could become more conducive for
some development of this system on Monday or Tuesday while it 
moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern 
Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level 
winds are likely to limit additional development as the system 
turns northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the 
United States. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone 
formation during the next 48 hours.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface 
ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 40N21W. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
426
ABNT20 KNHC 231129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles east of
the Windward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kirk, located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located between Bermuda and the Bahamas
continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
The strong upper-level winds currently affecting the system are
expected to diminish, and this could favor some development during
the next couple of days. The low is forecast to move westward and
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean and by Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast
to strengthen again, likely limiting the development. By then,
the system is expected to be moving by the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic
Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or
tropical development during the upcoming week. First, a non-
tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with
some associated showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the
central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A second non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form
along the central Atlantic cold front by Wednesday several hundred
miles west of the Azores. Conditions appear conducive for this
system to also acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by
the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Summary for Remnants of Eleven (AT1/AL112018)- ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Eleven was located near 14.5, -56.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.

Remnants of Eleven Public Advisory Number 7-Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

334 
WTNT31 KNHC 231430
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Eleven Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 56.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Tropical Depression
Eleven were located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 56.0 West.
The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional weakening is expected over the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Remnants of Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 7-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

146 
WTNT21 KNHC 231430
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  56.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  20 KT WITH GUSTS TO  30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  56.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  55.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N  56.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA





Remnants of Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 7-Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

731 
WTNT41 KNHC 231431
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Eleven Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Visible images show that the depression has degenerated into a
trough of low pressure accompanied by a few showers.  This
disturbance is moving westward toward an even more hostile
shear environment, and regeneration is not anticipated.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 14.5N  56.0W   20 KT  25 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila




Remnants of Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

729 
FONT11 KNHC 231431
PWSAT1
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112018               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF ELEVEN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5     
NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS
...25 MPH...35 KM/H.                                                
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



Remnants of Eleven Graphics- Remnants of Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 14:34:47 GMT

Remnants of Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 15:21:53 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)- ...KIRK MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Kirk was located near 9.3, -30.2 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

333 
WTNT32 KNHC 231430
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...KIRK MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 30.2W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 30.2 West.  Kirk is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h).  An even faster
westward motion across the tropical Atlantic is expected through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.
Weakening is likely during the middle to latter part of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

990 
WTNT22 KNHC 231430
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.3N  30.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.3N  30.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.2N  29.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z  9.8N  33.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.2N  37.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N  41.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.7N  45.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.2N  52.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N  57.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 13.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.3N  30.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 



Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

730 
WTNT42 KNHC 231431
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Kirk's cloud pattern has a figure 6 configuration, with most of the
deep convective bands over the western semicircle of the
circulation.  Microwave imagery indicates that the center is near
the eastern side of the main area of deep convection, as before.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB support keeping the
intensity at 35 kt.  The storm will be moving over warmer waters
with fairly low shear for the next day or two, so some strengthening
is anticipated in the short term.  Later in the forecast period,
increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus through 48
hours, and follows the trends shown by the ECMWF and GFS global
guidance thereafter.  The latter models suggest that Kirk could open
up into a trough when it nears the Caribbean.

Center fixes indicate that Kirk has been accelerating westward and
the initial motion estimate is now 280/18 kt.  A well-defined
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause an even
faster westward motion over the next few days.  Near the end of the
forecast period, a weakness in the ridge is likely to lead to a
slowing of the forward speed.  The official forecast is a blend of
the latest simple and corrected model consensus forecast tracks and
is also similar to the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z  9.3N  30.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z  9.8N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 10.2N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 10.5N  41.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 10.7N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 11.2N  52.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 12.3N  57.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 13.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

331 
FONT12 KNHC 231430
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
9.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35
KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
PORT OF SPAIN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics- Tropical Storm Kirk 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 14:33:02 GMT

Tropical Storm Kirk 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 15:28:06 GMT

Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)- ...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Leslie was located near 33.0, -46.5 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

133 
WTNT33 KNHC 231431
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 46.5W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 46.5 West.  The
storm is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h).  Little overall
motion is anticipated during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, but Leslie is forecast to
become absorbed by a larger non-tropical low by the middle of the
week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

132 
WTNT23 KNHC 231431
TCMAT3
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  46.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  46.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  46.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 33.2N  47.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.0N  46.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N  45.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 170SE  20SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N  46.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 



Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

251 
WTNT43 KNHC 231432
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global
models have been advertising for the past several days has
materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie
have been initiated.

Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds
are removed from the center.  However, there is a chance as usual
that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection
near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the
next day or so is not out of the question.  Global models do
indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that
the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.
This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.

Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most
likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow.  After
that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie
will likely move east until it becomes absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 33.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 33.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 33.0N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 33.0N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila




Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

328 
FONT13 KNHC 231432
PWSAT3
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics- Subtropical Storm Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 14:35:00 GMT

Subtropical Storm Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 15:33:59 GMT
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