Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;565983
ABNT20 KNHC 032347
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF ITS CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD NEAR 10 MPH TOWARD COOLER WATERS.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG


Expires:No;;566097
AXNT20 KNHC 032359
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 22 KT. THIS 
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM 
OBSERVED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WAVE AXIS S OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS 
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 40W-45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS 
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON 
THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 
7N-16N BETWEEN 61W-68W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE 
SE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 
14N69W. 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE 
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS 
CONVECTION IS SW OF A LINE FROM 8N77W TO 15N83W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N27W 9N40W 8N43W 5N52W 
8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
5N-8N BETWEEN 48W-53W.  
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE ALONG 30N81W 30N86W 30N89W AND INLAND ACROSS ERN 
LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
AXIS ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W. LOW-LEVEL 
INSTABILITY AND AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE SE 
GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 
24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-89W. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC 
INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER WITH ENHANCED SELY SURFACE WINDS TO 15 KT W OF 
94W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 63W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS 
THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 
61W-68W AND IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE SE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N69W. THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
81W IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
SCATTERED TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM 8N77W TO 15N83W...BRINGING 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS 
CUBA AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING 
AND MAXIMUM ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADE WIND FLOW.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS 
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N79W AND CONTINUES TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA WHERE IS 
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY S OF THE FRONT 
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ERN FLORIDA 
COAST AND NEARBY W ATLC COASTAL WATERS FROM 25N-31N W OF 79W. 
OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS 
THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 74W-79W. FARTHER TO THE 
E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N60W WHERE GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OBSERVED N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-74W. A 1013 MB SURFACE 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NE ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N41W 29N41W TO 25N46W. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 34W-41W AND ALSO WITHIN 
120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ERN ATLC IS BEING IMPACTED 
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A QUASI-STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 32N25W THAT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG N-NE 
WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 21N-33N E OF 
19W.
$$
HUFFMAN