Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;698456
ABNT20 KNHC 032353
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN


Expires:No;;698653
AXNT20 KNHC 040000
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC. 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 39.1N 70.8W AT 04/0000 UTC ABOUT 
135 NM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MOVING NE AT 20 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 38N-40N BETWEEN 70W-72W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 38N-44N BETWEEN 
68W-75W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 65.2W AT 
04/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 90 NM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 14 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR FIONA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. A SMALL AREA OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS SW OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-29N 
BETWEEN 66W-69W. 
THE REMNANT LOW GASTON IS NEAR 15N42W MOVING W NEAR 9 KT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND 
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
HAS INCREASED NW OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 42W-45W.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA AND 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 19N18W TO 9N23W. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS 
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 15N19W. THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN THE COAST AND 28W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NRN TIP OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-23N 
BETWEEN 13W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 
13N-16N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 11N14W ALONG 7N22W 9N32W 
12N39W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-10N BETWEEN 23W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N-11N BETWEEN 40W-52W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO LYING S OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ERN 
CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W ACROSS SRN MEXICO INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COMBINATION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE 
NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING AN 
AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W...AND S OF 19N BETWEEN 
92W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTEND DOWN THE 
ERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ALSO 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NE GULF FROM 
24N-30N BETWEEN 84W-92W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING 
THE TEXAS COASTLINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE ERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE UPPER 
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NE 
GULF AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W. 
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN GULF CENTERED OVER 
THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW GULF AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
ELEVEN-E...CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15.1N 
94.3W...MOVES NW.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF CUBA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING 
AND INSTABILITY. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ALSO COVERS MUCH OF 
HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING FROM 16N75W TO INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. A MAXIMUM 
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH BETWEEN 72W-80W. THIS AREA OF 
ENHANCED MOISTURE CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT 
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM FIONA SEVERAL DAYS AGO. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW 
BAHAMAS COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE 
ERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HRS. 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS 
AROUND A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N68W. TROPICAL STORM 
FIONA IS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 
MOISTURE TRAILS FROM FIONA SOUTHWARD TO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING 
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 65W-72W. 
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR SW ATLC CENTERED 
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE 
E CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W. FARTHER 
E...WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BASIN 
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 20N. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N28W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON