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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;871683
ABNT20 KNHC 221122
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Expires:No;;872879
AXNT20 KNHC 221206
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa extending from 09N to
20N along roughly 17N/18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A large area of
Saharan dust is noted along the wave north of 10N. Farther south,
scattered moderate convection is noted where the tropical wave 
intersects the monsoon trough off the coasts of Sierra Leone and 
Guinea, from 07N to 10N east of 09W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 08N-22N along 40W, moving W at 15-20 kt. This tropical wave
continues to be on the leading edge of a large area of Saharan 
dry air and dust, inhibiting large scale convection at this time.
Isolated cells are noted on the southern end of the tropical wave
where it intersects the monsoon trough and intertropical
convergence zone.

A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis 
extending from 09N-23N along 53W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The
tropical wave is accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust,
inhibiting large scale convection. However the northern extent of
the tropical wave will be coming into phase with a broad upper
trough to the northwest of the wave axis. This may allow
development of isolated convection later today or tonight 
approximately 300 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands.

A low amplitude tropical wave is moving across eastern Colombia 
with axis extending from 00N-11N along 75W, moving W at 15-20 kt.
While no convection is noted along the wave axis, it may be
interacting with overnight drainage flow to support a large area 
of showers and a few thunderstorms off the Pacific coast of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Panama. The wave will lose some 
definition as it moves across the Andes today, but may emerge into
the eastern Pacific off Colombia Mon.

A tropical wave extends from the Gulf of Honduras into the eastern
Pacific along roughly 87W. No significant convection is noted in
the Caribbean related to this tropical wave.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N19W and continues to 
07N37W. The ITCZ begins near 07N40W and continues to 06N55W. No 
significant convection is observed at this time with these 
features.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb 
high centered near 24N87W. To the west, surface trough extends 
across the Bay of Campeche from 22N30W to 19N93W with scattered 
showers. A shortwave trough at mid/upper levels is supporting 
cloudiness and a few showers over the far east Gulf waters and 
Florida Peninsula. A pre-frontal trough extends across the
Florida from 29N80W to 28N83W. Scatterometer data depicts light 
to gentle anticyclonic winds over most of the basin except north 
of 26N and east of 89W.

The weak trough across Central Florida will gradually settle 
southward over the next few days, bringing moderate west- 
southwesterly flow. The increasing westerly fetch will bring 
gradually higher seas in the offshore Gulf waters by early next 
week. Showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern Gulf
today. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into 
the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal 
winds and scattered showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean. Refer to the
section above for details. A recent scatterometer pass depicted 
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, reaching 
as far north as 17N between 73W-79W. Seas are estimated to be 07 
to 11 ft in this area. Aside from the thunderstorms over the 
southwest Caribbean due to the monsoon trough over 10N, little to 
no shower or thunderstorm activity is noted due to the presence of
Saharan dust and dry air, mainly impacting the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to 
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean 
through tonight before winds diminish.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Mid to upper-level diffluent flow between a ridge in the west
Atlantic and a trough along the eastern U.S. continue to support 
scattered showers over the west Atlantic mainly west of 70W. To
the east, an upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a
trough that extends from 31N55W to 23N56W. Two tropical waves
extend across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. 
A broad high pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin 
centered near 40N43W. 

For the forecast, high pressure ridge across the northern waters 
will remain in place through the weekend before lifting N Mon 
through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist N of
27N and E of 78W through early next week. Fair weather is 
elsewhere across the Atlantic, however hazy conditions are 
expected S of 26N as the extensive Saharan Air Layer outbreak 
moves across the Atlantic tropical waters.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
732
ABNT20 KNHC 221122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 22 Jul 2018 16:06:10 GMT
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