Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;676308
ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Expires:No;;676519
AXNT20 KNHC 071200
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 84.1W AT 07/1200 UTC 
OR ABOUT 220
MILES...360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280 
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING N AT 7 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 78W-85W. 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS JUST TO THE SE OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS DRAWING 
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE WAVE ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N32W TO 
16N37W. 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK 
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WAVE 
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N20W 7N35W 7N52W 8N61W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N 
BETWEEN 24W-33W. 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER TEXAS AND SE INTO THE W ATLC COVERING 
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N GIVING MOST OF THE GULF EASTERLY FLOW. 
THIS FLOW FILTERS INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N92W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW 
NEAR 19.5N95W TO 23N96W. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS SUPPORTED 
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO S MEXICO NEAR 
VERACRUZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER 
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE FEATURES 
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARE 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
S OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
S OF 25N E OF 87W. THE NE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS 
TROPICAL STORM IDA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE 
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N74W AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW 
ATLC AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W S OF 
14N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 75W-79W. THE E 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG 
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED 
ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 
24N69W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING SW TO 24N67W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 32N52W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 54W AND THE COLD FRONT. 
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N 
OF 26N W OF 52W. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING AN  AXIS FROM 
32N30W INTO THE TROPICS TO 15N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N-27N 
BETWEEN 35W-43W.
$$
WALLACE