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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

ABNT20 KNHC 302336

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster Beven

AXNT20 KNHC 222353

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W 
to 01N12W. The ITCZ continues from 01N12W to 02S24W to the coast 
of Brazil near 06S34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
180 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.


A 1024 mb high was located over the NW Gulf near 28N93W. No deep 
convection or any showers are present under the strong upper-
level subsidence over the Gulf this afternoon. The surface winds 
veer clockwise around the high in a generally gentle to moderate 
breeze. Seas are well below 8 ft. 

High pressure along the SW Louisiana coast extends SE to the Gulf
of Honduras this afternoon and will shift ENE into the W Atlc 
through the weekend. This will produce gentle to moderate winds 
through Sat morning before fresh SE return flow develops west of 
92W Sat afternoon and evening. A cold front will sink southward 
across the northern Gulf waters Tue and reach the Yucatan Channel 
on Wed. Fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front.


A cold front extends from E Cuba near 19N76W to 14N80W. A surface
trough continues from that point southwest to Nicaragua near
10N83W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm n either side
of the front. Across the Caribbean, isolated showers are occurring
over E Cuba, Hispaniola and W Puerto Rico. E tradewinds over the 
Caribbean are generally gentle to moderate. The exception, as is 
typical, are winds just north of Colombia, which are up to fresh 
to strong NE breeze as observed by a scatterometer pass. Seas 
across the Caribbean remain below 8 ft.

A cold front extending from eastern Cuba to near the Nicaragua-
Costa Rica border will become stationary across Cuba while drifting
SE across the SW Caribbean through Sat before it dissipates. Expect
moderate to fresh N to NE winds behind the front through Sat. The
remnants of the front will drift westward across the NW Caribbean
as a trough through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are 
expected along the coast of Colombia through Tue. N to NE swell 
from the Atlantic will move through the Caribbean passages E of 
Hispaniola this evening through late Sun.


A cold front extends from 32N59W southwestward to the eastern 
Bahamas and to E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are present 
within 60 nm of the front. A trough extends from 32N69W to 25N74W.
SW winds north of 27N ahead of the cold front are up to moderate 
to strong breeze. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, quiescent 
conditions prevail with surface ridging along 33N34W west- 
southwestward to Hispaniola.

The cold fronts over the Atlantic have merge today. The front will 
reach the SE Bahamas by Sat morning. The front is expected to 
reach far eastern Cuba near 75W by Sat afternoon, then begin to 
dissipate from 24N65W to the SE Bahamas along 23N75W by Sun 
afternoon. Swell generated by these fronts will dominate the 
waters E of the Bahamas through the weekend. A new cold front is 
forecast to reach the north waters late on Tue and sink southward 
across the NW half of the area through Wed. Low pressure is 
expected to develop along the front Tue through Wed near Bermuda 
and produce strong to near gale force NE winds across the far 
northern waters. 

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