Hurricane



 

160 x 600  
 
 
 
 

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;561784
ABNT20 KNHC 201704
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Expires:No;;563784
AXNT20 KNHC 201750
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Sebastien is near 21.1N 61.7W at 20/1500 UTC, or 
about 191 nm NNE of the northern Leeward Islands. Sebastien is 
moving W at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. 
Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection extends outward
to 200 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is 
elsewhere within 300 nm in the SE quadrant. Sebastian will turn to
the north later today, then turn to the northeast with an increase
in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. Some strengthening 
is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien is expected to 
become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days and be 
absorbed by a cold front on Friday. The Public Advisories for 
Sebastien are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and the 
AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The Forecast/Advisories are available via 
the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5 or visit
www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 14N southward, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N-12N 
between 41W- 46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N southward, 
moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are seen in SW Haiti near
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N18W to 04N29W to 07N43W, then W of a tropical wave near 07N45W
to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 02N- 09N between 10W- 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high is near 27N87W and is ridging across the
basin. As such, relatively dry air covers most of the area. The 
latest ASCAT pass shows that gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
cover the basin.

High pressure over the central Gulf will shift eastward today. 
Fresh to locally strong SE return flow will develop over the NW 
Gulf tonight into Thursday ahead of a cold front moving over 
Texas. The front will move into the NW Gulf late Friday night, 
cross the region Saturday through Sunday, then weaken and stall 
over the southern Gulf Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across eastern Honduras into the NW 
Caribbean, from 16N84W to 19N85W. Showers are seen within 70 nm on
either side of the trough. Meanwhile, a 1012 mb low is located 
over the Turks and Caicos Islands near 21N71W with a trough that 
extends along the low from 18N76W to 24N67W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen along this trough, including over 
Hispaniola, the Windward Passage, and just east of Jamaica. 
Isolated showers are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles, 
Puerto Rico and the USVI. Strong upper level ridging will inhibit 
any deep convection. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh
northerly winds in the western Caribbean, with calm to light 
trades across the rest of the basin. 

Tropical Storm Sebastien will turn northward later today and move
away from the area. Fresh NE winds will prevail across most of 
the western Caribbean through Friday morning, with the strongest 
winds expected through the Windward and Mona passages Thursday 
night as high pressure builds north of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N67W and stretches
southwestward toward the central Bahamas near 25N76W to northwest
Cuba near 23N82W. Showers are within 50 nm of this boundary. A 
pre-frontal trough is noted from 26N69W to 35N61W. Scattered 
moderate convection is ahead of this trough from 27N-38N between 
56W-65W. An upper level low is noted near 17N41W. With support 
from the ITCZ, scattered showers are noted from 09N-16N between 
21W-41W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong NW winds in 
the western Atlantic, N of 28N and W of 68W. 

In the far NE portion of the area, a cold front extends
southwestward from a 1016 mb low near 31N16W to 27N30W. Scattered
showers are seen within 50 nm of the front. Latest ASCAT pass
shows gentle to moderate N winds behind the front. Surface ridging
dominates the rest of the area from a 1028 mb high near 32N42W. 

Tropical Storm Sebastien will turn northward later today and move
to 22.0N 61.7W this evening, 23.7N 60.2W Thu morning, 26.3N 57.2W
Thu evening, then become extratropical as it merges with a cold 
front near 29.8N 52.5W Friday morning. Elsewhere, the cold front
in the western/central Atlantic will continue moving 
southeastward across the region through Thursday. High pressure 
will build across the northern waters Thursday through Saturday, 
then shift eastward Saturday night through Sunday as the next 
cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast.


$$

AKR


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201704
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)- ...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 21.7, -61.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 202036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 61.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sebastien is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien
is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days
and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 202035
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019
2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  61.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  61.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  61.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N  61.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.5N  59.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.2N  55.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N  51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  61.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO




Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 202037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

Sebastien has changed little in organization today, with
northwesterly shear displacing the deep convection to the southeast
of an exposed low-level center. An ASCAT-C overpass late this
morning sampled peak winds of 41 kt, and so the initial advisory
intensity will remain 45 kt due to the assumption of undersampling
by the scatterometer.

Sebastien made its anticipated turn to the north earlier today, and
the current motion is now 360/05 kt. The cyclone should turn to the
northeast tonight and begin to accelerate as it gets embedded in
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and
associated mid- to upper- level trough. The official forecast track
is near the previous one through 24 hours, and a little slower and
to the south of it beyond that time due to a shift in the model
guidance.

The approaching trough should provide a diffluent environment aloft
over Sebastien beginning tonight and persisting until the system
makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone in a couple of
days. This is expected to result in some intensification over the
next day or so. Once extratropical, the cyclone should gradually
become absorbed into a frontal zone through the end of the week. The
official forecast is changed little from the previous one, and is
near the IVCN consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 21.7N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 22.7N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 24.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 27.2N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 30.0N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto



Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 202036
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019               
2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    


Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics- Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 20:37:31 GMT

Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 20:37:31 GMT
::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright �


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.