Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;663804
ABNT20 KNHC 302336
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER.  WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
AT 15-20 MPH.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON.  THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012.  SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Expires:No;;219326
AXNT20 KNHC 032312
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN 
GUINEA AT 9N13W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W ALONG 
4N30W 2N38W 2N52W. 
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY FROM A 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WEST VIRGINIA PROVIDING E-SE FLOW OF 
15-20 KTS OVER THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 
THROUGH THE WRN GULF ALONG 93W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND 
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA E 
OF 91W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 26N88W 23N89W. DRY AIR ALOFT 
AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE AREA W OF 
91W MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE SAME 
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 1800 UTC 
TOMORROW. 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN 
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC 
AND ERN CONUS. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT TRADEWIND 
FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE 
BASIN...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WRN 
GULF AND DOWN CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 81W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND 
FLOW. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 32N59W 28N67W 27N75W 
DISSIPATING TO 27N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD 
OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE NW ATLC S OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND 
ACROSS THE FAR ERN CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT ALONG 27N55W TO 21N58W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 
IN ITS VICINITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY 
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL N OF 
THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 37W PROVIDING 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 18N TO THE AFRICAN COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 24W. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON