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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;135162
ABNT20 KNHC 211734
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical
wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this
afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but
confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although
the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development
is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this
weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly
westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Expires:No;;134071
AXNT20 KNHC 211711
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
111 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 22.0N 65.0W at 21/1500 UTC 
or about 615 nm S of Bermuda, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is within
150 nm of the center NE quad, 180 nm SE quad, 90 nm SW quad and
nothing in the NW quad. Scattered moderate showers are elsewhere 
from 19N-25N between 61W-67W. Jerry will pass well north of 
Puerto Rico today. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday, 
passing well east of the SE Bahamas before accelerating toward the
northeast early next week. Little change in strength is forecast 
during the next several days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 56W S of 16N is moving 
W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this 
wave well. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 07N-
15N between 47W-58W and also near Trinidad. The latest ASCAT pass
shows that the wave contains strong to near gale force winds on
both sides of the wave axis from 11N-16N. The wave is forecast to
cross the Windward Islands on Sunday. Environmental conditions 
appear to be conducive for some development, and a tropical 
depression could form later this weekend or early next week. 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of
the Lesser Antilles this weekend along with gusty winds, and 
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the 
progress of this disturbance.

A tropical wave over west Africa with axis along 12/13W S of 19N
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 04N-14N between 07W-18W. The tropical 
wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday 
morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 29W S of 19N is moving 
W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this 
wave well. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 05N-16N between 21W-38W.

The tropical wave that was previously along 82W has been removed
from the analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
12N16W to 09N25W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to 08N48W
to 09N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections
above, no other significant convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb 
high centered over North Carolina near 35N81W. The high is keeping
an east to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest 
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong E winds over the
eastern Gulf north of 24N and east of 90W, with gentle to moderate
winds farther south and west. An upper-level trough axis extends 
from just offshore North Carolina to Daytona Beach Florida to the 
east-central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence just to the 
southeast of this trough axis is enhancing scattered showers and 
tstorms over the SE Gulf of Mexico, Florida Straits and Florida 
Keys from 23N-26N between 81W-89W.

High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. 
will dominate the Gulf waters through Sunday, causing a
continuation of fresh to strong E winds over the eastern Gulf and
building seas. New high pressure will develop over the northern 
Gulf by early next week with the pressure gradient slackening, and
wind and sea conditions improving through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad 1011 mb surface low just east of the eastern tip of 
Jamaica has been weakening over the last 12 hours. A weak surface 
trough extends from the E tip of Cuba to the low to 15N76W. 
Scattered showers and tstorms are over portions of E Cuba, 
Jamaica, western Haiti, and nearby waters. Farther west, a surface
trough is over the NW Caribbean extending from 21N86W to 14N82W. 
Scattered showers and tstorms are from 20N-22N between 81W-87W. In
the far SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is 
enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 
08.5N-12.5N between 68W-81W, including over NW Venezuela and N 
Colombia. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle winds across 
much of the basin.

Large northerly swell will continue to pass through the NE
Caribbean passages through Sunday. A strong tropical wave along 
56W will cross the Windward Islands on Sunday, bringing squally 
weather. This system has a medium chance of developing into a 
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. See the Special 
Features section above for details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry. 

A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from
32N56W to 29N60W. A stationary front continues from 29N60W to the
Central Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm SE of the front between 53W-63W and
north of 25N. Similar moderate to strong convection is over
portions of the Central and SE Bahamas. Cloudiness and scattered 
light to moderate showers extend to 180 nm NW of the stationary 
front, including over portions of the NW Bahamas. Partly cloudy 
skies and better weather are found to the NW of a line from 
Bermuda to West Palm Beach Florida, due to the influence of the 
1026 mb surface high over North Carolina. Due to the pressure
gradient across the western Atlantic, strong NE winds around 20-25
kt cover the entire area north of the front from 25N-30N between
61W and the east coast of Florida, as shown by the latest ASCAT
pass.

A 1024 mb surface high is centered near 32N40W. A large upper-
level low near 17N47W covers the area from 15N-24N between 38W-
53W. The upper-low is inducing scattered moderate convection from
20N-26N between 43W-49W. A cold front over the NE Atlantic enters
the area near 32N19W and extends SW to 27N33W. No significant
convection is with the front. However, a distinct wind shift is
seen across the front, with moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds extending to 150 nm N of the front.

Tropical Storm Jerry is near 22.0N 65.0W, 999 mb, at 11 AM EDT 
moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts
to 65 kt. Jerry will move to near 25N67W Sun morning, near 28N67W
Mon morning, and near 31N66W Tue morning, with little change in 
intensity expected. Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will 
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N and E of the 
Bahamas through the weekend.

$$
Hagen


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical
wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this
afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but
confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although
the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development
is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this
weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly
westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)- ...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 23.0, -65.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 18-Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 212049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next
several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a
research mission around Jerry.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 212049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  65.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N  66.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N  67.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 35.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY




Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 18-Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 212050
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level
center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent
deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research
mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum
pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum
pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT
data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds
were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held
at 55 kt for this advisory.

Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and
users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical
storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's
disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem
imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone
will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane
again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is
possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen.
The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps
Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is
still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near
Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that
Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next
5 days.

All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or
on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning
northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last
advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and
remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 23.0N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 24.3N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 25.8N  67.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 27.0N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 28.5N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 35.5N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 212049
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  38(42)  24(66)   1(67)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   X(27)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics- Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:52:27 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:24:50 GMT
::
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