2007 National Hurricane Center Predictions...

Ready to talk about the 2007 hurricane season? - locked now!
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2007 National Hurricane Center Predictions...

Postby hurricane » Mon May 21, 2007 12:53 pm

The 2007 National Hurricane Center predictions will be out shortly and we'll have them here.

Remember, in the Hurricane.com opinion: it is great that people are attempting to predict the number, intensity, and landfall locations for a particular season. However, most predictions are based on statistical analysis and are usually highly error prone because there are a huge number of factors that can not be accounted for.

It is a great academic exercise, spurs nice discussions, and helps preparations. We hope the forecasts will improve each year and believe that they will do so as we increase our knowledge, but remember, in most years the forecasts are way off.

In short: prepare for a storm now so you will be ready IF one does head towards your area. Preparation is key.

hurricane
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NHC 2007 Hurricane forecast and comparison with previous yea

Postby hurricane » Tue May 22, 2007 11:46 am

NHC/NOAA Hurricane forecast summary:
13 to 17 tropical storms
7 to 10 of them becoming hurricanes.

75% chance of above normal hurricane activity according to the NOAA's NHC.

Other people are predicting:
* William Gray from Colorado State predicts 17 named storms with 9 hurricanes.

* AccuWeather calls for 13-14 tropical storms with 9 becoming hurricanes.

*Tropical Storm Risk (back in March) expected to bring 17 tropical storms, of which nine will strengthen into hurricanes.

Essentially all within the same ball-park.

Let's recall previous year predictions compared with the actually events. Please remember, the forecasters do their best with the knowledge we have.

****2006****
2006 ended with 10 named storms (one between Alberto and Beryl that was unnamed during the season and only identified in the post-season analysis).
CSU had predicted 17 storms
AccuWeather: 6 tropical cyclones (3 major) will strike US coast (none did), with a total number "above average"
NHC/NOAA predicted:
* 13-16 named storms (hurricanes and tropical storms)
* 8-10 of which will become hurricanes
* 4-6 of which will be major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)


****2005*****
Actual: 28 tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major
CSU's May forecast, predicted 13 named storms for 2005, which was obviously well off.
NOAA: 12-15 Storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 of them major

****2004****
Actual: 15 storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major
NOAA: 12-15 Storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major
CSU: 14 storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major (May 2004 forecast)


[Hurricane.com has been predicting *correctly* between 1 and 40 tropical storms, 1-30 of which become hurricanes each year. :-) ]

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WSI cuts 2007 hurricane forecasts

Postby hurricane » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:01 pm

WSI is now saying the season will bring 14 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes and three will become major hurricanes.

Previously WSI had stated there would be 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 of which were major.


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