NHC 2006 Forecast

Ready to talk about the 2007 hurricane season? - locked now!
hurricane
Site Admin
Posts: 11119
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 1:11 pm
Which is the largest number?: 10992
Location: Florida
Contact:

NHC 2006 Forecast

Postby hurricane » Tue May 16, 2006 11:30 am

The National Hurricane Center's 2006 forecast is due Monday. We'll have it here as soon as it is available.

Meanwhile a poll released today (May 16th) shows that many people are not concerned about a hurricane threat and are not prepared. (seehttp://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/miamiherald/news/breaking_news/14587779.htm?source=rss&channel=miamiherald_breaking_news).

hurricane
Site Admin
Posts: 11119
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 1:11 pm
Which is the largest number?: 10992
Location: Florida
Contact:

NHC 2006 Hurricane forecast

Postby hurricane » Mon May 22, 2006 12:46 pm

Adding yet another prediction to the mix the National Weather Service issued its 2006 hurricane season predictions. Their hurricane forecast for 2006 says:

* 13-16 named storms (hurricanes and tropical storms)
* 8-10 of which will become hurricanes
* 4-6 of which will be major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)
* Statistically they expect that 2 to 4 of those hurricanes could impact the United States.

All these are HIGHER than the predictions at this time last year.

The short summary is that everyone is predicting that 2006 will be a very active year but not as active as the 2005 hurricane season, while making educated guesses as to the number of storms. Obviously that is all they are - guesses, albeit educated ones. The important point to remember is: prepare now. And if you are in Florida, use the sales tax break to your advantage. If you are elsewhere, also prepare to spend 72 hours to 7 days or more without support (e.g. water, electricty etc) if you are hit. So prepare now.

The report was presented at the National Hurricane Center headquarters in Miami today.

The factors that are believed to contribute to the active 2006 hurricane season are:
* Warmer ocean water
* Lower wind shear
* Weaker easterly trade winds
* Favorable mid-level wind patterns

The forecast also states regarding season activyt:
* 80% chance the 2006 hurricane season will be above normal.
* 15% normal
* 5% change below normal.

See for the short version of the 2006 hurricane forecast:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

For the complete report for the 2006 hurricane forecast follow this link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

it might hit here
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:54 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: south-central louisiana
Contact:

Postby it might hit here » Sun May 28, 2006 11:31 pm

Say thanks, that's very interesting.
oh no the hurricane must go

weatherfreak
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 9:14 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: Southwest Louisiana

Postby weatherfreak » Tue May 30, 2006 4:22 pm

Statistics and predictions aside, I firmly believe that any location along the U.S. coastline in any given hurricane season stands a 50/50 chance of being hit.

It's very simple...either you will get hit or you won't!

Any thoughts?

it might hit here
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:54 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: south-central louisiana
Contact:

Postby it might hit here » Wed May 31, 2006 4:56 pm

It's quite hard to believe that a hurricane would hit New York before Florida. :P
oh no the hurricane must go

hurricane
Site Admin
Posts: 11119
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 1:11 pm
Which is the largest number?: 10992
Location: Florida
Contact:

Postby hurricane » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:17 pm

it might hit here wrote:It's quite hard to believe that a hurricane would hit New York before Florida. :P


For those of us located in Florida though...

weatherfreak
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 9:14 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: Southwest Louisiana

Postby weatherfreak » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:59 pm

it might hit here wrote:It's quite hard to believe that a hurricane would hit New York before Florida. :P


After last season nothing is too hard for me to believe!

hurricane
Site Admin
Posts: 11119
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 1:11 pm
Which is the largest number?: 10992
Location: Florida
Contact:

Postby hurricane » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:38 pm

weatherfreak wrote:
it might hit here wrote:It's quite hard to believe that a hurricane would hit New York before Florida. :P


After last season nothing is too hard for me to believe!


The key for me: every place will get hit eventually, it is just a question of when and the probability of it doing so.

Just like the number of storms per season and intensity, the location to be hit is all statistics and even if you only have a 1% chance per year, if the 1% occurs this year, then you are in trouble. ;-)

All the expert predictions aside, they are really all merely educated guesses based on probabilities.

That is the problem with a projected path with a single line down the center:
1. The line shows the path which almost never is accurate unless it is only a hours out.

2. The cone does a much better job EXCEPT people still look at it as the edges of the cone having a lower probability of being hit even though the cone shows a uniform probability - just human nature.

3. The line and the cone show the center of the hurricane or tropical storm and there may be tropical storm force winds 250+ miles out on both sides of the center.

While the cone does a good job showing what it is supposed to show, people don't always interpret it in an accurate manner. ;-)

weatherfreak
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 9:14 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: Southwest Louisiana

Postby weatherfreak » Tue Jun 06, 2006 2:02 pm

That was an interesting chart for sure!

Regarding going out? Well, I grew up in S. Florida (Ft. Lauderdale area), lived in Miami, and in the Florida Keys and now am more northernly so I've been through a fair number of storms.

I generally do not go out after them all that much now. Some time I might do so though, with proper preparation.

You?

weatherfreak
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 9:14 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: Southwest Louisiana

Postby weatherfreak » Tue Jun 06, 2006 2:15 pm

An after thought for "it might hit here". Take a look at this chart. Notice that New York has been hit by 5 major hurricanes in the hundred years between 1900 and 2000!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table10.htm

it might hit here
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:54 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: south-central louisiana
Contact:

Postby it might hit here » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:17 am

hey, I watched 'It could happen tomorrow' and it was about New York getting hit by a Cat 2 hurricane. It was so, cool. The graphics was just awesome. I can imagine people in New York feeling scared and paranoid. I mean, God forbid something like that would happen, but it is pretty cool to see.
oh no the hurricane must go

it might hit here
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:54 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: south-central louisiana
Contact:

Postby it might hit here » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:23 am

weatherfreak wrote:An after thought for "it might hit here". Take a look at this chart. Notice that New York has been hit by 5 major hurricanes in the hundred years between 1900 and 2000!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table10.htm


That is interesting. It's just so weird to know that major hurricanes hit northern states. You wouldn't think a hurricane can hold out way up there.
oh no the hurricane must go

hurricane
Site Admin
Posts: 11119
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 1:11 pm
Which is the largest number?: 10992
Location: Florida
Contact:

Re: 2006 vs 2005 vs avg

Postby hurricane » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:52 pm

dananeon wrote:Does this site have any sort of comparison chart comparing number of Hurricanes so far this year as to last year and on average and timeline. I'm curious as to how this season is stacking up versus last season and the average per month of all prior years combined. Anybody got anything like that?


Last year by this time we were on Gert (so G vs B).

However 2004, we weren't even on A (no Alex until July 31) and 2004 was a pretty busy season.

So, while we are behind 2005 (not suprising) we are ahead of 2004.

it might hit here
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:54 pm
Which is the largest number?: 9
Location: south-central louisiana
Contact:

Postby it might hit here » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:45 pm

weatherfreak wrote:
it might hit here wrote:It's quite hard to believe that a hurricane would hit New York before Florida. :P


After last season nothing is too hard for me to believe!
Well, I was almost wrong. Florida was the first to get hit by a storm, but Mass. or Conneticut was second! Weird stuff.
oh no the hurricane must go


Return to “2007 Hurricane Season Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest