Ready to talk about the 2007 hurricane season? - locked now!
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hurricane wrote:So far we've only seen this one article about 2006 prognostications:
http://www.djournal.com/pages/story.asp ... 1&div=News
Another updated forecast from Colorado State University was released today. Of interest is that they are predicting 17 named storms.
Last year's April (2005) forecast, predicted 13 named storms for 2005. In 2005 there were obviously significantly more than 13 named storms. Remember that the predictions are only based on models and the models themselves have been quite inaccurate - but they are improving.
Alternate headlines could have been:
"2006 predicted to be more active than 2005 was predicted to be" or
"2006 predicted to be more active than 2004" (17 predicted in April 2006, vs 14 predicted in April 2004) or
"2006 predicted to be only slightly more active than 2004"
I think the point is multi-fold: (a) the predictions are highly variable, (b) the statistics can be massaged into whatever mold seems appropriate for the person writing the headline. The thing to remember: prepare now so that if you are in the line of fire you won't be panicking..
(see http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060404/sc ... 0404150343)
And on Hurricanes and global warming: "No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global frequency and intensity," the forcast said.
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