Storm Surge Forecasting

Discuss the 2010 hurricane season
SEW247
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Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2010 9:00 am
Which is the largest number?: 10992

Storm Surge Forecasting

Postby SEW247 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 9:32 am

I understand that the estimates for storm surge are no longer included as part of the Saffir Simpson scale and can understand the rationale behind making changes when comparing expected surge levels (per the old SS scale) to those which actually occurred when in many instances a high category storm produced a lower surge than expected and vice versa.

What I am now trying to understand is how potential storm surge will be forecast in the future and also how buildings and flood defences will be designed within specific areas to protect against storm surge.

I am looking to review storm surge risk for a location on the west of Grand Cayman. The defences were designed for a direct hit of a Category 4 storm (13-18ft on the old SS scale), but I am confused about how I can now assess / rate them based on surge being removed from the SS Scale.

In regards to forecasting, I know the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration carry this out using a variety of models including the P-Surge model, but this seems to only cover the US where SLOSH basins have been computed.

Would anyone be able to give me some advice / point me in the right direction in regards to this?

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