The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its hurricane season forecast Thursday, cutting the number of hurricanes they expect this year to between six and nine.
2013 Update Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
NOAA’s updated 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook continues to call for an above-normal season, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons, which have been slightly modified from previous years. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
As predicted in May, atmospheric and oceanic anomalies across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region, MDR) are now conducive to an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. These conditions are expected to persist throughout the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season in association with the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high activity era that began in 1995. This signal is linked to above-average sea surface temperatures in the MDR and to an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which are now in place.
The presence of two named storms in the deep tropical Atlantic during June-July reinforces the expectation for an above-normal season. Historically, years with early-season activity in this region have a high likelihood of being above-normal, with many also being very active (i.e., hyper-active).
A third factor for the season is the likely continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions. There is only a low probability (19%) that La Niña will develop and further enhance the activity, and an even lower probability (8%) that El Niño will develop and suppress the activity.
Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity for the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season:
13-19 Named Storms
3-5 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-190% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
The expected ranges are centered well above the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Activity to Date:
Four tropical storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) have formed in the Atlantic basin to date, with Chantal and Dorian forming in the deep tropical Atlantic. Significant activity is expected for the remainder of the season, with an additional 9-15 named storms likely, of which 6-9 are expected to become hurricanes with 3-5 reaching major hurricane status.
Changes from the pre-season outlook issued May 23rd:
All of the predicted ranges of activity have been lowered and narrowed slightly from the May outlook. Three reasons for these changes to the ranges are: 1) No hurricanes or major hurricanes formed during June and July; 2) The probability of La Niña developing during August-October is now low; and 3) Many models now have more conservative predictions of hurricane activity.
All about the 2013 Hurricane season
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Looks like we made it through another year with little to no hurricanes. The word is out! This year will be a bad hurricane season according to the NOAA. I am interested in outfitting my home with hurricane windows and doors. I have been looking into Storm Tight Windows and they are the best available windows that are not aluminum. If any one has information on a better window please let me know.
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