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Current hurricane and tropical storm advisories


Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291152
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
east of the southern Windward Islands continue to become better
organized. This system could develop into a tropical depression
later today or tomorrow while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 29 Jul 2014 15:36:58 GMT

NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291153
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hernan, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers extending several
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system later this week or this
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)- ...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 the center of HERNAN was located near 23.5, -121.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Public Advisory Number 14-Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 121.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 14-Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291438
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 121.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HERNAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 14-Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291439
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GOES-15 shortwave infrared imagery shows that Hernan's surface
circulation has become elongated (north to south) and ill-defined.
The post-tropical cyclone has been devoid of significant deep
convection for over 12 hours, and regeneration is not likely due to
sea surface temperature of less than 24 deg C.  The winds associated
with the remnant low should continue to decrease, with dissipation
of the system expected in a couple of days.

The initial motion has been along a persistent west-northwest
direction, or 300/13 kt, within the low- to mid-level flow on the
periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast.  This general
motion should continue until the system dissipates in 48 hours.  The
NHC forecast is similar to that from the previous package and
follows the TVCE consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional
information on the remnant low of Hernan, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 23.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14-Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 291438
PWSEP3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  



Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Graphics- Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 14:45:20 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 15:04:43 GMT
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