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Current hurricane and tropical storm advisories


Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the weak area of low pressure over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico indicate that the system does not have a
well-defined circulation. The associated thunderstorm activity has
also diminished some since this morning. However, some limited
development of this system is still possible before it moves inland
over south Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
This system is forecast to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan



Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)- ...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 32.0, -72.0 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 16A-Issued at 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTNT34 KNHC 271735
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...CRISTOBAL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WELL WEST OF BERMUDA..


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 72.0W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER
THAT TIME...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY LATE FRIDAY.

CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41048...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER
OF CRISTOBAL...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...
76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 986
MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 16-Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTNT24 KNHC 271438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  72.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 190SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  72.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  72.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N  70.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.5N  66.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.6N  59.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 140SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 240SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 56.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N  72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 16-Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTNT44 KNHC 271441
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal
during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle.
Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the
center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial
intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating
the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for
Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or
so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be
complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a
powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then
slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of
the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal
remains a tropical cyclone.

Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an
initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous
in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward
during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the
mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is
expected through the remainder of the cyclone's life cycle. The
track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has
shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due
to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous
track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus
at 96 hours.

The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 31.8N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 34.0N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 39.6N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 43.5N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 56.0N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16-Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

000
FONT14 KNHC 271438
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014               
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  58(62)   X(62)   X(62)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   X(26)   X(26)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X  16(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  



Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics- Hurricane CRISTOBAL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 17:36:14 GMT

Hurricane CRISTOBAL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 15:04:44 GMT

NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271723
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Marie, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)- ...MARIE STEADILY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 the center of MARIE was located near 22.3, -123.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 23-Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 271440
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

...MARIE STEADILY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 123.7W
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MARIE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
WATER...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A
RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 23-Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 271440
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 123.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 420SE 180SW 500NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 123.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 23-Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271441
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and
recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming
less organized.  The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which
is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will
be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable
environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in
continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone within 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A west-northwestward
motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula.
After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward
and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow.  The
model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie
during the first few days of the forecast period.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast.  These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely
to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23-Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 271440
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014               
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



Hurricane MARIE Graphics- Hurricane MARIE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 14:42:20 GMT

Hurricane MARIE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 15:05:28 GMT
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