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Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220508
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located well to east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)- ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 21 the center of TWO was located near 12.0, -45.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 2-Issued at 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

000
WTNT32 KNHC 220238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 2-Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

000
WTNT22 KNHC 220237
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  45.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  45.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  44.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.5N  47.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N  49.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.5N  52.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N  56.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N  63.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 2-Issued at 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220242
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The compact depression has not changed much during the past several
hours.  The system is producing a small area of deep convection near
the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of
the circulation.  An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western
half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable
to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not
become better defined.

The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good
agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time
it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  The primary reasons for the
weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly
mid-level shear.  The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining
strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the
expected unfavorable environmental conditions.  The official
intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model
guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the
north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate
is 280/14.  A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days.  This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the
Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC track forecast is a little
to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the
initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus
TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 12.0N  45.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 12.5N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 13.0N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 13.5N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 14.5N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 16.7N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2-Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

000
FONT12 KNHC 220238
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



Tropical Depression TWO Graphics- Tropical Depression TWO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 02:39:17 GMT

Tropical Depression TWO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 03:04:47 GMT

NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220514
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula have become more concentrated
since this afternoon. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system
is possible during the weekend as it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 22 Jul 2014 07:00:23 GMT
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