Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 281706
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 28 Jul 2015 21:08:00 GMT
NHC Eastern Pacific
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific
Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABPZ20 KNHC 281726
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight-E, located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A broad low pressure system located about 1200 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development over the next several days, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression by this weekend
while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.
Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082015)- ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 16.6, -130.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 282033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 130.4W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 130.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 282033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The low-level center of the depression is exposed to the northwest of a small burst of deep convection, and arc clouds are emanating outward over the northern semicircle due to dry air in the circulation. The various Dvorak estimates were steady or decreased from this morning, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center is exposed due to continued 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly shear, which is expected to begin diminishing in about 12 hours. At the same time, however, the depression will be ingesting increasingly drier air and moving over much lower oceanic heat content values. Therefore, strengthening is no longer indicated in the official forecast, following the trends noted in the intensity and global models. The global models open the system up into a trough by day 3, and dissipation is therefore expected by that time. The depression has turned westward, or 280/12 kt, steered by the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. Due to its shallow nature, the depression should continue to move quickly westward until it dissipates. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the future track, and the official forecast continues to closely follow the consensus of those two models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 16.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015
000 FOPZ13 KNHC 282033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2015 20:34:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2015 21:03:48 GMT