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Current hurricane and tropical storm advisories

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281712
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms about 350 miles south-southeast of
Cabo Verde. Some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for development early next week when the
system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 28 Jul 2016 21:44:22 GMT

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281700
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Frank, located several
hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK (EP2/EP072016)- ...FRANK BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 the center of FRANK was located near 24.1, -124.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Public Advisory Number 29-Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 282031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

...FRANK BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 124.9W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank
was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 124.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is
expected over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the remnant low
is expected to dissipate by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Forecast Advisory Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 28 2016

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 282030
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
2100 UTC THU JUL 28 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 124.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 124.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 124.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.1N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.9N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 124.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 29-Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 282031
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

Frank has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
is now just a large swirl of low-level stratocumulus clouds. Since
the cyclone continues to move into an environment of very dry
mid-level air and near 22 deg C SSTs, redevelopment of organized
deep convection is unlikely.  On this basis, Frank has been
declared a remnant low.  The initial wind speed of 30 kt is based on
an average of subjective T/CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Given the
very stable conditions ahead of the cyclone, the remnant low should
continue to spin down and dissipate by 72 h.

The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The vertically shallow
remnant low should move westward through 24 h, and then toward the
west-southwest by weak easterly to northeasterly low-level tradewind
flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
track and lies close to the TVCN consensus track
model.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system.  Additional information on the remnant low can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 24.1N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  29/0600Z 24.2N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 24.1N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 23.9N 127.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 23.6N 127.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29-Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 28 2016

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 282031
PWSEP2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016               
2100 UTC THU JUL 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Graphics- Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2016 20:33:19 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2016 21:03:36 GMT
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