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Current hurricane and tropical storm advisories


Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301129
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just north of the
Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the northeast and north of the center. Upper-level winds
are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development
while the system turns toward the northwest and north over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 30 Oct 2014 15:09:35 GMT

NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301123
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E, located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212014)- ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 11.5, -100.9 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Public Advisory Number 2-Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 301446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 100.9W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
100.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...
WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2-Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2-Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301446
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

The depression has become a little better organized with a more
prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However,
recent microwave images show that the center remains on the
southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that
southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression.  Although
the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity
estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will
conservatively remain 30 kt.

Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and
dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for
the next day or two.  As a result, the latest model guidance does
not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the
trend of showing only slow intensification.  After that time, the
global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an
increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more
significant strengthening at longer ranges.  The NHC forecast is
closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model
consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment.
Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional
strengthening after that time.

The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the
previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity,
leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt.
The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and
southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge
builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should
cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward
in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches
the Baja California peninsula.  The official NHC forecast is a
little faster than the consensus after accounting for the
unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the
previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2-Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 301446
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  15(32)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)   9(38)   1(39)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics- Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2014 14:47:46 GMT

Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2014 15:04:14 GMT
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