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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280537
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erika, located south of Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the west coast of
Africa on Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands. Some slow development of the disturbance will be
possible through the middle of next week while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)- ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28 the center of ERIKA was located near 17.7, -67.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 14-Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

000
WTNT35 KNHC 280847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 67.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of
Isla Saona.

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long
Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 67.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and
move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast today as Erika moves over land, followed
by little change in strength through Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the north and east of the center. A Weatherflow station in Las
Mareas, Puerto Rico, recently reported a wind of 52 mph (84 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions currently affecting the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico will continue for the next several hours
before subsiding later today. Tropical storm conditions will spread
across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and
tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday
night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic
and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 14-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

000
WTNT25 KNHC 280845
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF
ISLA SAONA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  67.7W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  67.7W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  66.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N  69.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N  72.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N  78.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N  80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  67.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 14-Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

000
WTNT45 KNHC 280850
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Erika remains disorganized, with the deep convection decreasing in
coverage and intensity to the east of the estimated center position
during the past few hours. Despite this, the cyclone continues to
produce a large area of tropical storm force winds east of the
center, and the initial intensity of 45 kt and central pressure of
1006 mb are based on recent surface observations from Puerto Rico.

The center of Erika continues to be rather disorganized, and the
initial position and motion of 290/15 are based on a blend of
satellite imagery and continuity. While the overall track forecast
reasoning has not changed, the initial position and motion and
an overall weaker depiction of Erika in the global models have
resulted in a leftward shift in the track guidance this cycle and
an increase in the forward speed. A west-northwestward motion is
expected for the first couple of days as Erika moves around the
southern periphery of the subtropical ridge to the north. After that
time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward
speed are forecast as Erika moves around the western edge of the
ridge. The new NHC track is to the left of and faster than the
previous advisory and is near the multi model consensus through 36
hours. After that time, the NHC track is east of almost all the
guidance out of respect to continuity. Needless to say, confidence
in the track forecast, especially after 48 hours, remains very low
given that the details of the track depend on how much the cyclone
recovers from the shear and the effects of land interaction in the
short term.

Strong shear is expected to continue or even increase during the
next day or so. The combination of the shear and interaction with
Hispaniola suggests that Erika is likely to weaken and could even
dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours. Assuming that the cyclone
survives, there is an opportunity for some intensification on days
2 and 3 of the forecast period as the shear decreases, and that is
reflected in the NHC forecast. After that time, since the NHC track
now takes Erika inland over the Florida peninsula, weakening is
shown at days 4 and 5. Much of the guidance has trended weaker this
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the
IVCN consensus. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains very
low.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti today. These rains could
produce flash floods and mud slides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 17.7N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 18.8N  69.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/0600Z 20.5N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  29/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 23.2N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 25.6N  80.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/0600Z 27.7N  81.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0600Z 30.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

000
FONT15 KNHC 280845
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   7(18)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   6(23)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)   5(26)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  10(22)   4(26)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  11(23)   4(27)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   9(26)   4(30)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   7(30)   2(32)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   7(35)   1(36)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   6(29)   1(30)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   6(24)   1(25)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   9(28)   2(30)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  12(28)   3(31)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  11(24)   4(28)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   5(26)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   6(22)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)   4(24)   1(25)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   9(25)   1(26)   1(27)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   8(35)   1(36)   1(37)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)  12(12)  12(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   7( 7)  12(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
GRAND TURK     34  1  17(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  5  54(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34 29  25(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE          34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAN JUAN       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  


Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics- Tropical Storm ERIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 08:46:17 GMT

Tropical Storm ERIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 09:06:49 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.-Issued at 246 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.-Issued at 0

NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280521
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jimena, located about a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development early next week while the
system moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)- ...JIMENA BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.1, -121.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 7-Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 280836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...JIMENA BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 121.0W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located
near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Jimena is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue today followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours and Jimena is expected to become a major hurricane on
Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 7-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 280835
TCMEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 121.0W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 121.0W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 7-Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280838
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Satellite images indicate that Jimena is continuing to rapidly
intensify.  The overall cold cloud canopy has expanded, with well-
defined banding features around the central dense overcast, which
has occasionally showed hints of an eye.  The initial intensity is
raised to 70 kt, a blend of the 65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates
and a 77 kt objective value from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/12 kt.  Jimena is expected
to move westward along the southern periphery of the subtropical
ridge for the next 24-36 hours.  After that time a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected, with some decrease in forward speed
likely late in the forecast due to a mid-latitude trough weakening
the ridge.  The track guidance continues to be in remarkable
agreement on the forecast for the next several days, with the NHC
model guidance tightly packed near the 0300 UTC forecast track, so
the new forecast is very close to the previous one.

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further
strengthening, with very warm water, high mid-level moisture and
low shear forecast for at least the next 48 hours. In response to
these conditions, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is
forecasting a 61 percent chance of a 30 kt increase during the next
24 hours. Thus, the official NHC prediction will continue to
explicitly indicate rapid intensification for the first day of the
forecast.  Most of the guidance shows the peak intensity around 48
hours, so the NHC forecast will as well, although it remains below
some of the guidance.  Beyond that time, slightly cooler SSTs are
expected, along with lower upper-ocean heat content values.
Therefore, slow weakening is indicated from days 3 to 5.  The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
after adjusting for the initial strength, and lies between the
forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which continue to perform
quite well with Jimena.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 12.1N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 280836
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
15N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Hurricane JIMENA Graphics- Hurricane JIMENA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 08:37:04 GMT

Hurricane JIMENA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 09:08:22 GMT
::
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