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Current hurricane and tropical storm advisories


Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281706
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 28 Jul 2015 21:08:00 GMT

NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281726
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight-E, located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad low pressure system located about 1200 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development over the next several days, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression by this weekend
while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082015)- ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 16.6, -130.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 282033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NOT WELL ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 130.4W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 130.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 282033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 129.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The low-level center of the depression is exposed to the northwest
of a small burst of deep convection, and arc clouds are emanating
outward over the northern semicircle due to dry air in the
circulation.  The various Dvorak estimates were steady or decreased
from this morning, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The
center is exposed due to continued 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly
shear, which is expected to begin diminishing in about 12 hours.
At the same time, however, the depression will be ingesting
increasingly drier air and moving over much lower oceanic heat
content values.  Therefore, strengthening is no longer indicated in
the official forecast, following the trends noted in the intensity
and global models.  The global models open the system up into a
trough by day 3, and dissipation is therefore expected by that
time.

The depression has turned westward, or 280/12 kt, steered by the
low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.  Due to its shallow nature,
the depression should continue to move quickly westward until it
dissipates.  The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the future
track, and the official forecast continues to closely follow the
consensus of those two models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 16.6N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 282033
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     


Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics- Tropical Depression EIGHT-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2015 20:34:19 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2015 21:03:48 GMT
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