TS IDA Discussion 13
Nov0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 071500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING…WITH A COUPLE OF
HOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH
AGENCIES…BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/8. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER…THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS…ECMWF…AND
HWRF ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW IT REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD…BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR NOW…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS…BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS…WHILE NOT IDEAL…APPEAR CONDUCIVE ENOUGH
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
ONCE IDA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO…SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AND WATERS BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING…HOWEVER THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AN
EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS
WEAKENING THAN TYPICAL…GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
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TS IDA Public Advisory 13
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 071452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
…IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA…NEW
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED…
AT 10 AM EST…1500 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
AT 10 AM EST…1500 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 10 AM EST…1500 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 AM EST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES…410 KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES…
430 KM…SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…IDA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA…WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
…SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.9N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
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TS IDA Public Advisory 12A
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 071156
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
…IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD…
AT 7 AM EST…1200 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE…AND FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 700 AM EST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES…360 KM…SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280
MILES…460 KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS…WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
…SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Nov0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA…LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TS IDA Discussion 12
Nov0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 070857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS…WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND
45 KT FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07…A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE
THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IDA
AND THE TROUGH DIFFER…MOST OF THE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NOGAPS AND GFDN…SHOW IDA TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL DURING THIS TIME AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY DAY 5
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT…AND WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA…
TURNING SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW OFFICIAL THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
WHILE IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING…AS
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
FURTHER AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE GIVEN
THE OBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS…AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 50 KT IN 36
HOURS. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON DAY 2 AS IDA ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BEGINS TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
IDA.
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.1N 84.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS IDA Public Advisory 12
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 070835
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
…IDA STRENGTHENING…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA…
AT 4 AM EST…0900 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 4 AM EST…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 AM EST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES…215 KM…NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 300 MILES…
480 KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS…WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
…SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.1N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD IDA Discussion 11
Nov0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 070233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF IDA WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND
WAS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE CENTER…AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 KT AND 30 KT…RESPECTIVELY.
NOAA BUOY 42057…LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER…RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 KT…BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL AND MAY
NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE…IDA
IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY…BUT IT IS
PROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 360/6. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER MEXICO
ARE EXPECTED TO STEER IDA NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 72
HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS AND
HAVE FORCED THE MODEL CONSENSUS A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST. THE
FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS IS STILL COMPLEX AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
IDA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IDA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY
96 HOURS ONCE IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT…BUT THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON
WHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT. ONLY THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW
IDA BECOMING PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A
MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HOURS…AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT 120 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO…A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT…WHICH IS
JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.2N 84.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.1N 84.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 18.4N 84.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 19.7N 85.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.4N 86.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 25.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 87.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.6W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TD IDA Public Advisory 11
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 070233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
…IDA MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM HONDURAS…COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOON…
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 PM EST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES…175 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK…IDA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…
AND IDA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS…WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
…SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.2N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
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TD IDA Discussion 10
Nov0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 062045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA DURING THE DAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOW A RATHER ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM…WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. NOW THAT IDA IS
OFFSHORE OVER VERY WARM WATERS…THE SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO RE-
INTENSIFY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…WHERE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO GET RATHER STRONG BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…WITH COOLER WATERS PRESENT…SO WEAKENING
WILL BE SHOWN AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE…THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
SPREAD THAN EARLIER. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID…AND REDUCES
THE INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IDA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH…360/7. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW DUE TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER IDA
ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG
RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH
THAT TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…THEN TURNING EASTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF EAST. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT IDA WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME…AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE QUITE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TRANSITION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT THE LONG RANGE…BUT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 15.7N 83.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 17.9N 84.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.1N 85.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.6N 86.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.5N 85.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
——————————————————————
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TD IDA Public Advisory 10
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 062045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
…IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN…
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES…110 KM…NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT…WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…IDA SHOULD APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY.
…SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
:// or ://hurricanes.gov
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