TD ONE Discussion 6
May0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 292035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE…WITH THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED ABOUT 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
THE SYSTEM LACKS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION…IT HAS NOW DEGENERATED
INTO A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE.
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS AND
UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR…NO REGENERATION IS
EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS CARRYING THE REMNANTS OF THE
DEPRESSION STEADILY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD…065/16…AND MODELS SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS HEADING OR SPEED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 40.3N 62.3W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 30/0600Z 41.4N 59.4W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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TD ONE Public Advisory 6
May0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 292035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
…DEPRESSION LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER HAS ENOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 305 MILES…490 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH…29
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…40.3N 62.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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TD ONE Discussion 5
May0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 291433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED…WITH INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR DISPLACING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB CONFIRM
THIS DEGRADATION IN APPEARANCE…BUT WINDS ARE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT
AT 30 KT THIS ADVISORY BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT ESTIMATES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA…WITH AN
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 065/16…SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTS A
FURTHER ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED COLDER WATERS…AND THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION…THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MAJORITY
OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 12 HOURS
AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONTAL ZONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 39.6N 64.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 41.2N 61.2W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/1200Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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TD ONE Public Advisory 5
May0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 291431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
…DEPRESSION MOVING INTO COLDER WATER…EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE…
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT
345 MILES…555 KM…SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH…
29 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER
WATERS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…39.6N 64.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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TD ONE Discussion 4
May0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290833
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
AFTER AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION THAT BEGAN AROUND 0400
UTC…SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE AND MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB
AND SAB…RESPECTIVELY…AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AT 0102 UTC THAT SHOWED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM…AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER
COLDER WATER TODAY. THEREFORE…IT APPEARS THAT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HAS PASSED. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH. THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY 36
HOURS…HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES
POORLY DEFINED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING AROUND 070/13. THE CYCLONE IS
BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN…
ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 38.9N 66.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 40.2N 63.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 42.5N 59.1W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
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TD ONE Public Advisory 4
May0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
…DEPRESSION HEADING FOR COLDER WATERS…
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES…420 KM…SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 420
MILES…670 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH…24
KM/HR…AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…38.9N 66.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
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TD ONE Discussion 3
May0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290256
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION WAS BECOMING SOMEWHAT EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS SHRUNK A BIT IN SIZE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…AND DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 1.5
FROM SAB AND REMAIN 2.0 FROM TAFB. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2330 UTC
SHOWED A FEW TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE VECTORS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY RAIN. THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
HELD AT 30 KT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
HUGGING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM…AND THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE CENTER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WALL OVER COLDER WATERS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS…BUT IT WILL HAVE TO HAPPEN SOON. THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
TANGLED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
AT THAT POINT. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS
OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR NEW
ENGLAND.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/13 AS THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 38.1N 67.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 39.1N 65.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 41.2N 60.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1200Z 43.4N 55.4W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 31/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TD ONE Public Advisory 3
May0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
…DEPRESSION TURNS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST…
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES…405 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 500 MILES…805 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH…26
KM/HR…AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND
AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…38.1N 67.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TD ONE Public Advisory 2
May0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 282031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
…DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES…485 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND
ABOUT 565 MILES…905 KM…SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH…
26 KM/HR…AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY…BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE OVER COLDER
WATERS BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…37.7N 69.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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TD ONE Discussion 2
May0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 282031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
30 KT…WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS THE CENTER OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HR IN A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR
DURING THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT…COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY
36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 48 HR. IT IS POSSBLE THAT BOTH
OF THESE EVENTS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 37.7N 69.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 38.7N 67.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 40.4N 62.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 42.2N 57.5W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1800Z 43.9N 52.5W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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