TD ONE Discussion 1
000
WTNT41 KNHC 281450
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCICATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT 04Z THIS MORNING
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE 25-26C WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE
T2.0 AND T1.5...RESPECTIVELY. AN AMSU PASS AT 1033Z HELPS TO PLACE
THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIVING
OFF THE NARROW GULF STREAM WATERS. AS LONG AS IT REMAINS THERE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL SST
INPUT TO THE MODEL APPEAR TOO COLD. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...A LOSS OF CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS EXPECTED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 37.3N 71.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 68.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 40.2N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 60.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
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TD ONE Public Advisory 1
000
WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281156
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ALONG THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY LAND AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271213
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009
CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271206
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231140
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY...SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS NOW A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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