Tropical Weather Outlook
Jun0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS
INCREASED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN
30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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TS ANDRES Discussion 11
Jun0
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240831
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM…AS A RAGGED-LOOKING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IT
APPEARS THAT ANDRES IS SUCCUMBING TO THE PERSISTENT EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING IT OVER THE PAST DAY OR
TWO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB…ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…THE OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OF ANDRES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 305/8 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER
POSITION IS RATHER IMPRECISE AT THE MOMENT. THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM AT THIS TIME IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES
DOMINATED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS…WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THEN THE WINDS AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE…AND IS NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.5N 106.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 112.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 115.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 11
Jun0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240831
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
…ANDRES WEAKENING…
AT 2 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES…145 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 315
MILES…505 KM…SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.5N 106.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 10A
Jun0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240545
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
…ANDRES MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES…150 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.
RAINS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION…
…SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.3N 106.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS ANDRES Discussion 10
Jun0
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER…THOUGH THE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER ASYMMETRIC DUE
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN SPITE OF THE CONVECTIVE
BURST…ANDRES HAS A RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE WITH POORLY-
DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. FINAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR…AND ON THIS BASIS ANDRES IS DOWNGRADED TO A
60 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE EARLIER DISPARITY BETWEEN SATELLITE AND
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTS THAT GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS…MOSTLY A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 20
TO 25 KT AND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREAFTER…A STEADIER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS PROJECTED ONCE
ANDRES REACHES EVEN COOLER WATERS…AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN
LINE WITH BOTH SHIPS AND ICON.
ANDRES HAS RECENTLY TRACKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT…WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 305/9. SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE
NEARBY MEXICAN LANDMASS…RESULTING IN AN ABRUPT DISSIPATION.
HOWEVER…THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING REASSERTING
ITSELF NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS SOON AS 12 HOURS FROM NOW…WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE MORE LEFTWARD
INITIAL TRACK AND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ARE LIKELY INDICATIONS
THAT ANDRES SHOULD AVOID LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO BUT SHOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. BY 48
HOURS…A WEAKER ANDRES SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE STEERED MORE TOWARD
THE WEST AS A RESULT OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST SOUTHWEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.1N 106.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 107.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 111.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 10
Jun0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240232
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
…ANDRES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
AT 8 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES…180 KM…WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES…150
KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 70 MPH…
110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITINONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. MANZANILLO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH…64 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO…WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
…SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.1N 106.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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HURR ANDRES Public Advisory 9A
Jun0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232336
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
…CENTER OF ANDRES PASSING WEST OF MANZANILLO…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM PDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES…110 KM…WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES…
155 KM…SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…ANDRES WILL CONTINUE
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO…OR OVER…THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 MPH…
120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES…110 KM. MANZANILLO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 46 MPH…76 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO…WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
…SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.0N 105.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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HURR ANDRES Discussion 9
Jun0
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232056
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION…THE SFMR ON THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK SURFACE
WINDS OF 63 KT AND 67 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER…
RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT LESS…TWO DROPSONDES RELEASED EAST OF THE CENTER ALSO
MEASURED ROUGHLY 65 KT SURFACE WINDS…WHICH SUPPORT THE SFMR
MEASUREMENTS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS ANDRES IS BEING UPGRADED
TO A HURRICANE AND IT WAS POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS
MORNING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANDRES WILL NOT
STRENGTHEN ANY MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH LAND INTERACTION THAT THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CENTER
JUST OFF THE COAST AND ASSUMES THAT ANDRES WILL TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPDATED
FORECAST IS CLOSE THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 12-24 HOURS…THEN
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND BAMM…AND BAMS THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.6N 105.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 106.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 107.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.7N 109.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.4N 110.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURR ANDRES Public Advisory 9
Jun0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232054
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
…RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ANDRES IS A HURRICANE…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 2 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN TELMO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES…105 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130
MILES…205 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…ANDRES WILL CONTINUE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO…OR OVER…
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR
75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH ANDRES HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY…WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES…110 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO…WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
…SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…18.6N 105.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 8A
Jun0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231756
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
…ANDRES STILL A TROPICAL STORM…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO
PUNTO SAN TELMO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES…85 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…
ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO…OR OVER…THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70
MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS…HOWEVER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO…WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…18.4N 104.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
——————————————————————
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
:// or ://hurricanes.gov
PLEASE NOTE: Timely delivery of this email is NOT GUARANTEED.
DISCLAIMER: ://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
PRIVACY: ://www.weather.gov/privacy.php
FEEDBACK: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
——————————————————————
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