Welcome to the NHC Advisory Mailing List – 2009
From: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
Subject: Welcome to the - 2009
Date: Tue, 23 June 2009 12:00:00 PM EDT
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Welcome to the NHC Advisory Mailing List – 2009
From: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
Subject: Welcome to the - 2009
Date: Tue, 23 June 2009 12:00:00 PM EDT
Hello again, and welcome to the National Hurricane Center automated
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Welcome to the NHC Advisory Mailing List – 2009
From: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
Subject: Welcome to the - 2009
Date: Tue, 23 June 2009 12:00:00 PM EDT
Hello again, and welcome to the National Hurricane Center automated
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the 2009 hurricane season and this message is being sent as a
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Welcome to the NHC Advisory Mailing List – 2009
From: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
Subject: Welcome to the - 2009
Date: Tue, 23 June 2009 12:00:00 PM EDT
Hello again, and welcome to the National Hurricane Center automated
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the 2009 hurricane season and this message is being sent as a
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Welcome to the NHC Advisory Mailing List – 2009
From: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
Subject: Welcome to the - 2009
Date: Tue, 23 June 2009 12:00:00 PM EDT
Hello again, and welcome to the National Hurricane Center automated
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the 2009 hurricane season and this message is being sent as a
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******************************************************************
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TS ANDRES Discussion 8
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231458
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ANDRES HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. A VERY
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT WIND VECTOR AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
ANDRES. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF THE CENTER LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
ANDRES CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT RANGE...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TAKE THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CENTER
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ANDRES
COULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION. IN
THE LONGER RANGE...THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AND
SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHIFT HAS
CAUSED THE CONSENSUS TO ALSO MOVE EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE 2-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IS STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LAND INTERACTION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGHTENING...HOWEVER THE NHC
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ANDRES TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
12 HOURS. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.0N 104.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.4N 105.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.8N 108.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 110.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 8
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231450
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
...ANDRES HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
TO PUNTO SAN TELMO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN TELMO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...110 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE ANDRES
LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.0N 104.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 7A
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231153
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
...ANDRES MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.7N 103.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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TS ANDRES Discussion 7
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230831
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES HAS ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THERE IS A PERSISTENT...VERY COLD-TOPPED...CDO BUT THE BANDING
FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS 60 KT AND THIS
IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT NOT OCCUR
IF ANDRES INTERACTS MORE WITH THE MEXICAN LANDMASS THAN EXPECTED.
BY 36 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN CROSSING A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SST AND APPROACHING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING
THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT IF THAT MODEL IS CORRECT THEN ANDRES
WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS INDICATED BELOW.
BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES... THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...320/7...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SINCE
ANDRES IS SO CLOSE TO THE COAST ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MOVING
ONSHORE. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF ANDRES WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS WOULD ONLY SEEM
POSSIBLE IF THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND. IN 3
TO 5 DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...ANDRES OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED
MAINLY WESTWARD BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.6N 104.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 105.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 109.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 112.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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