TS ANDRES Public Advisory 7
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230831
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
...ANDRES NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 103.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 6A
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230539
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...ANDRES GETTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 103.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS ANDRES Discussion 6
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEVELOP...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED
WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. EARLIER TRMM AND AMSU-B PASSES
ALSO INDICATE WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE POSSIBLE
FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. 0000 UTC T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE BOTH 3.5 AND ARE USED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55
KT.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SHOW A LARGE AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
ANDRES' CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY
SEVERAL TRACK MODELS...APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ...WHICH SHOULD STEER ANDRES MORE TOWARD THE WEST...BUT NOT
BEFORE IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NEARLY 20 KT OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
SHEAR OVER ANDRES AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT UPWARD
INTENSITY TREND AND THE WARM SSTS ALONG ITS TRACK...A CONTINUED BUT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT
SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN INGESTING STABLE AIR IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN STRENGTH. IT
SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT...IF ANDRES MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD INTERACT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LAND AND
WEAKEN FASTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.8N 103.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.8N 104.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.2N 105.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 6
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230241
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...ANDRES GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... ANDRES
SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE AS ANDRES MOVES CLOSE TO THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.8N 103.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 5A
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222336
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...ANDRES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES
WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE AS ANDRES MOVES CLOSE TO THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 102.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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TS ANDRES Discussion 5
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ANDRES
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE 1800 UTC DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.
ANDRES HAS BEEN MOVING UNSTEADILY OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS...
ALTERNATING BETWEEN A MORE NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY HEADING. THE
12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/04. THE UNSTEADY MOTION IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF ANDRES AND AN UPPER-TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS WILL FORCE ANDRES TOWARD
THE WEST...BUT NOT BEFORE IT TRACKS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND
72 HOURS...THIS PACKAGE IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES NEARLY 20 KT OF SHEAR...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HAVING ANY ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE. ANDRES WILL
REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE A LITTLE FASTER NOW DUE TO THE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION SEEN TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR...RESULTING
IN SLOW WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF ANDRES MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTERACTS WITH LAND...IT COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED
HERE.
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN THIS
PACKAGE REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.2N 102.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.1N 103.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.4N 104.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 19.6N 105.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.6N 107.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 5
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222034
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...ANDRES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO
SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES
...370 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES
WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE AS ANDRES MOVES CLOSE TO THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 102.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 4A
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221731
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...ANDRES STRENGTHENING...
...RAINFALL AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES...390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES WILL
BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.1N 102.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
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TS ANDRES Discussion 4
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 1035 UTC SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF ANDRES
WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION. OVERALL...ANDRES
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE
PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/04...USING THE TRMM AND
QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE FIXES FROM OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS JUST NORTH OF ANDRES AND
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE HELPED STEER THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH WEAKENING
AND MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER MEXICO. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS CRITICAL TO WHETHER ANDRES WILL
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO OR MOVE ONSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NOW SHOWS THE CENTER OF ANDRES MOVING VERY CLOSE TO
THE MEXICAN COAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TRICKY WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST EDGING CLOSER TO LAND. WHILE ANDRES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. IN A DAY OR SO...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LAND MAY INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...ANDRES WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER
SSTS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MORE STABLE AIR...CAUSING MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST IS SHOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES ANY FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...ANDRES
COULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT EXPLICITLY
INDICATE LANDFALL...IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.0N 102.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.8N 103.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 104.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 106.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 22.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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TS ANDRES Public Advisory 4
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221444
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 800 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES
WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.0N 102.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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