Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 311130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TD SIX-E Discussion 1
Jul0
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301454
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AROUND THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0…AND
THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE
CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE…BUT A 1116 UTC
AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT IT IS PROBABLY NOT ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ABOUT 12N.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC…AND THE RESULTANT MOTION IS A QUICK
275/16. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BREAK OFF THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD…KEEPING
THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5…AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH AT
THAT TIME TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
FOR ONLY THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS…AFTER WHICH TIME SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS SHOWN
BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES
MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN STEADY WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS.
THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE CROSSING 140W SOON…AND ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 12.0N 139.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 12.1N 141.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 12.3N 144.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 12.6N 147.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 150.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 156.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 166.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TD SIX-E Public Advisory 1
Jul0
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 301453
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009
…SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS…SOON
TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE
139.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1155 MILES…1855 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH…29
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS…AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…12.0N 139.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO…BEGINNING AT 11 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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National Hurricane Center
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261128
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
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