Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
NON-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30
PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFER TO STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER…UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN
30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER…SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE AREA ARE HIGH…AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30
PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…IF ANY…WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181135
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EXTENDING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
WHILE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES…UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT…IF ANY…OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Jul0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…IF ANY…IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD DOLORES Discussion 9
Jul0
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
THERE ARE ONLY SOME PUNY CELLS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DOLORES. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASING BELOW 24C…NO
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF DOLORES IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION…
WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW HAPPENING IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOLORES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.6N 124.1W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.4N 126.3W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.4N 129.3W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 131.8W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.5N 134.1W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TD DOLORES Public Advisory 9
Jul0
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 170231
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
…DOLORES DECAYS TO A REMNANT LOW…
AT 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST OR ABOUT
940 MILES…1515 KM…WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.6N 124.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TD DOLORES Discussion 8
Jul0
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
DOLORES HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1330 UTC…AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-FIRE…WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NOW THAT
THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATERS OF AROUND 24C.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16…AND THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER…
THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER…AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 122.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 130.6W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.9N 133.1W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD DOLORES Public Advisory 8
Jul0
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 162034
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
…DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST OR ABOUT
860 MILES…1385 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED…AND DOLORES IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.3N 122.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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