TD CARLOS Discussion 28
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 162032
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
CARLOS HAS BECOME A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IN THE ITCZ WITH
VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SYSTEM HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON
CARLOS.
THE REMNANT OF CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL COMPLETELY LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 9.5N 138.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1800Z 9.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z 9.5N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1800Z...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TD CARLOS Public Advisory 28
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 162031
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
...CARLOS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1985 MILES...3195 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...9.4N 136.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CARLOS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS DOLORES Discussion 7
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTER OF DOLORES AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS ASSUMED
TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH STILL APPEARED TO BE
WELL-DEFINED IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 0800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
HWRF AND GFDL AND SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...
WHICH TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 140W.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
REFORM NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.9N 120.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.1N 122.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 21.4N 125.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 22.3N 128.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 23.2N 130.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS DOLORES Public Advisory 7
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 161434
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
...DOLORES WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST OR ABOUT 730
MILES...1175 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
DOLORES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.9N 120.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD CARLOS Discussion 27
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 161434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
CARLOS HAS A SMALL AND POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT IS
STILL PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED AS SUCH LATER
TODAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 270/14. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 9.8N 135.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 9.8N 136.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1200Z 10.0N 139.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0000Z 10.0N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1200Z 10.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TD CARLOS Public Advisory 27
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 161434
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
...CARLOS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1890 MILES...3040 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CARLOS WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...9.8N 135.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS DOLORES Discussion 6
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160835
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE
AMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
BUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS
00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE
CYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE
GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TS DOLORES Public Advisory 6
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 160834
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
...DOLORES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST OR ABOUT 680
MILES...1090 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
DOLORES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.2N 119.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TD CARLOS Discussion 26
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 160833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND I AM NOT SURE
IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT. THE SYSTEM RESEMBLES A
WEAK LOW OR A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
OF A CIRCULATION ON MICROWAVE DATA EITHER. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING
CONTINUITY AND THE FACT THAT VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT AVAILABLE...I
WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS CARLOS IMMEDIATELY AND BASICALLY
DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE
INCREASING SHEAR...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TOO.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. I DO NOT THINK THAT MODELS ARE VERY USEFUL GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHALLOW STRUCTURE OF CARLOS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 10.1N 133.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.1N 135.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 10.3N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 10.3N 140.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z 10.3N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z 10.5N 148.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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