TD CARLOS Public Advisory 26
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 160833
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
...CARLOS WEAKENING FAST...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1790 MILES...2885 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH..23 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.1N 133.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TS DOLORES Discussion 5
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DOLORES
IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
DOLORES TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOW CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM...THE
OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING WESTWARD...AND OVERALL DOLORES IS DISPLAYING A
HEALTHIER SATELLITE SIGNATURE THAN EARLIER TODAY. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB/TAFB/CIMSS ARE ALL 45 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT VALUE. THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW
AVAILABLE FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE STORM WILL BE
OVER SSTS LESS THAN 26C BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME...A
SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS DOLORES MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS. THE WEAKENING COULD BE PROTRACTED DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT
FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT
LOW AROUND THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 310/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SHORT-TERM SYNOPTIC REASONING AS DOLORES IS BEING STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE
STORM ON MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS...ARE NOW
FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE AND LESS OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT
STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
GFDL/HWRF. AT LONGER RANGES...MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST A
DEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 140W...WHICH
COULD ALLOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR...BUT IS
STILL ON THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THAT
TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.1N 117.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.2N 119.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.4N 122.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.6N 125.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 128.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0000Z 25.5N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TS DOLORES Public Advisory 5
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 160231
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
...DOLORES STRENGTHENS...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST OR ABOUT 630
MILES...1015 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
DOLORES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE STORM
STARTS TO WEAKEN BY LATE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. EARLIER TODAY...A GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/HR...WAS
RECORDED AT CLARION ISLAND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.1N 117.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TS CARLOS Discussion 25
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 160232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT CARLOS...WITH
OCCASIONAL PUFFS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POORLY-DEFINED OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
REMAIN 55 KT...THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF CARLOS SUGGESTS IT HAS
WEAKENED SINCE 18Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/11. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OR REASONING SINCE THE LAST
PACKAGE. CARLOS IS IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND BY 36 HR IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THERE
IS LITTLE REASON FOR CARLOS TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE...ESPECIALLY AS
MUCH AS FORECAST BY THE RIGHT-OUTLIERS NOGAPS AND GFDN. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM...BAMD...AND GFS MODELS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN 15-20 KT OF SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR
DIRECTION LIKELY TO CHANGE FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DURING THAT
TIME. THIS IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON A CYCLONE AS SMALL
AS CARLOS. THE HWRF FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE AFTER 72
HR...WHILE THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH
120 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOS TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR 24-36 HR AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH 120 HR IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS ARE THAT
THE SMALL CIRCULATION DECAYS TO A TROUGH...OR THAT IT GETS ABSORBED
BY A LARGER ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. EITHER OF THESE
COULD HAPPEN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 10.2N 132.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 10.3N 133.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 10.3N 135.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 10.3N 137.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 10.4N 140.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 10.5N 146.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 10.0N 152.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 10.0N 158.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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TS CARLOS Public Advisory 25
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 160231
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
...CARLOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1705 MILES...2740 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CARLOS MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.2N 132.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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TS DOLORES Discussion 4
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DOLORES' CIRCULATION CENTER IS
PARTIALLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CLOUD PATTERN.
ALTHOUGH DOLORES HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AS REFLECTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DESPITE THE RATHER MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.
AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DOLORES MOVES OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ULTIMATELY BEING REDUCED TO A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
DOLORES COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAN
INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IF THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/12. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN MORE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW AS THE DOLORES
WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THIS MORNING'S FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.2N 116.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.1N 118.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 124.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 19/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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TS DOLORES Public Advisory 4
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 152032
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
...DOLORES A LITTLE STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST OR ABOUT 635
MILES...1025 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
DOLORES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 116.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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TS CARLOS Discussion 24
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 152034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20
KT AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL HAS REMOVED THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 1800 UTC FINAL-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND
3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/08. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WELL TO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED
ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IMMEDIATELY SHOWS A NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION. I SEE LITTLE REASON FOR THE CYCLONE TO
GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE BAM MODELS. THE
MEDIUM AND DEEP BAMS EVEN SHOW A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION ON
DAYS 2 AND 3...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE FORWARD
SPEED IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...CARLOS COULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR BE RE-ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ.
HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE WATERS
REMAIN WARM AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND CARLOS COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...CARLOS WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LIKELY RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 10.1N 130.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 10.1N 132.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 10.1N 134.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 10.1N 136.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 10.0N 138.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 9.5N 144.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 9.5N 150.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 9.5N 156.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS CARLOS Public Advisory 24
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 152034
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST OR ABOUT
1640 MILES...2640 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.1N 130.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS DOLORES Discussion 3
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A 0856
UTC TMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS STILL
SOMEWHAT DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANDING FEATURES OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WARRANTS AN INCREASE OF THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF DOLORES
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF DOLORES WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DOLORES BEGINS TRAVERSING OVER
COOLER WATERS. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT SOONER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THEN THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.
THE TMI PASS WAS ALSO QUITE HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE MOTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM...WHICH IS NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 11 KT. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DOLORES REMAINING
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED
BY DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AND BECOMES
INFLUENCED MORE BY THE SHALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.0N 115.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 119.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 122.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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