HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 14
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 010305
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE LOCATION SECTION
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING NORTHWEST...NEW
WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND ON THE EAST
COAST FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...390 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MILES
...660 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM..WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA...HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 109.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 14
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010249
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS REMAINED
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
IN A LARGE CDO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND
6.0 FROM SAB AND THE ADT HAS BEEN SHOWING T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA COULD HAVE REACHED
CATEGORY 5 STATUS EARLIER TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD
STEADY FOR 12 HOURS...AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED
AS JIMENA WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSUMES
THAT JIMENA WILL STILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JIMENA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING JIMENA TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
IT IS NOW NECESSARY TO EXTEND HURRICANE WATCHES FARTHER NORTH ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT OR ON
TUESDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT
STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL
HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE DANGEROUS
IMPACTS WILL EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER REGARDLESS OF THE
LANDFALL LOCATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 19.4N 109.6W 135 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 20.7N 110.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.5N 111.9W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.1N 112.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 28.2N 112.8W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 06/0000Z 31.5N 112.5W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 14
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 010247
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING NORTHWEST...NEW
WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND ON THE EAST
COAST FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM..WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA...HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 109.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD KEVIN Discussion 11
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010239
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
KEVIN IS MOSTLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF AN INCREASINGLY BROAD CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. AS BEFORE...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO MAINTAIN KEVIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY
MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT KEVIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
010/04. THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING REGIME IN BETWEEN A WEAK ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A RATHER SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN COULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST BY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO CAPTURE AN
INITIALLY MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 17.6N 121.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.0N 121.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/1200Z 18.6N 121.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/0000Z 18.7N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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TD KEVIN Public Advisory 11
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010238
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...KEVIN POORLY-ORGANIZED...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST OR ABOUT
840 MILES...1355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND KEVIN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 121.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 13A
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 312336
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...DANGEROUS JIMENA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS...AND NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.8N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD KEVIN Discussion 10
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 312037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
KEVIN IS FADING FAST. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. SUBSEQUENTLY...IF THIS
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED
THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/05...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT WITHIN A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 17.2N 121.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.1N 120.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 120.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 120.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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TD KEVIN Public Advisory 10
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312037
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...KEVIN LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.4 WEST OR ABOUT
845 MILES...1355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND KEVIN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 121.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 13
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 312034
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA...AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS...PRIMARILY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
AFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MOTION IS
BACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...PREVIOUSLY
WESTERN OUTLIERS...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER THE U.K. AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED...NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...AND
DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. IN
FACT...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT JIMENA
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED. MOREOVER...TRACK FORECAST
ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
FRAME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.5N 109.2W 135 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.6N 110.1W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 21.6N 111.1W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.6N 111.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 27.8N 112.7W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 113.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 13
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 312033
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...JIMENA ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND
NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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