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TD KEVIN Discussion 10

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 312037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

KEVIN IS FADING FAST. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. SUBSEQUENTLY…IF THIS
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES…ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED
THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/05…A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT WITHIN A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS…OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 17.2N 121.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.1N 120.9W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 120.7W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 120.6W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.6W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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