HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 12
Aug0
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 311444
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
…HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA…
AT 8 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST…AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST…
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 8 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES…570 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR…AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES…130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB…27.76 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS…WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.
…SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…18.0N 108.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…940 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TD KEVIN Discussion 9
Aug0
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 311434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
KEVIN IS GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION…AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY DRY…AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE
CIRCULATION. UNLESS THERE IS A RESURGENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION…KEVIN WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE…EVEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY…BUT
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/05. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LIGHT AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFNI AND
CANADIAN MODELS DRAW KEVIN OR ITS REMNANTS EASTWARD BEHIND
JIMENA…WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
WESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST
A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 16.7N 121.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 121.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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TD KEVIN Public Advisory 9
Aug0
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 311435
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
…KEVIN WEAKENS…
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 121.7 WEST OR ABOUT
880 MILES…1415 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS…AND KEVIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.7N 121.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 12
Aug0
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 311435
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
THE EYE HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND…BASED ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY…APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LARGER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. THE MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER THIS MORNING ALSO
SUGGESTED THAT JIMENA MAY HAVE UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS…SO JIMENA MAY HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER…I WILL HOLD THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 125 KT
UNTIL AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INVESTIGATES THE HURRICANE A LITTLE
LATER TODAY AND GIVES US SOME IN SITU MEASUREMENTS. THE WATERS ARE
WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK…BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AFTER ABOUT
24 HOURS AND WITH REDUCED OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. ALSO…THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN 24-48
HOURS. HOWEVER NONE OF THESE FACTOR ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT JIMENA
FROM REMAINING A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS…WHICH
HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/7. THE STEERING SCENARIO
REMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME. JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL
AND THE LOW-RESOLUTION GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE CONSIDERED
WESTERN OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. IN FACT…THE MEAN OF THE
HIGHER-RESOLUTION PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
BASED ON THE FORECAST…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND A HURRICANE WATCH FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA.
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED…DO NOT FORECAST ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DANGEROUS
IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. MOREOVER…TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOURS
TIME FRAME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 18.0N 108.3W 125 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.1N 109.2W 125 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 110.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 111.2W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 25.0N 111.9W 95 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 27.6N 112.9W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 29.0N 113.5W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 114.0W 25 KT…OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Aug0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 311135
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE…GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 11A
Aug0
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 311136
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
…POWERFUL HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD…
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST…AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST…
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES…595 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES…130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB…27.76 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.8N 108.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…940 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS KEVIN Discussion 8
Aug0
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 310846
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
A 0216 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT KEVIN HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF
35 KT CONFINED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER…WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BEEN
SHRINKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…AND THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION
THAT KEVIN MAY NOT CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.
EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO…ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS KEVIN BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
THE MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER…
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 015/5. KEVIN IS BEING
STEERED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEAR AXIS TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS…BUT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THERE IS GREATER
SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER THAT POINT WITH SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST TURN…BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LEAD OF THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS WHICH SHOW KEVIN
DISSIPATING AS EARLY AS 48-72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 16.3N 121.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.8N 121.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 17.4N 121.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 18.1N 120.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/0600Z 18.5N 120.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TS KEVIN Public Advisory 8
Aug0
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310846
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
…KEVIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD…BARELY A TROPICAL
STORM…
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 121.7 WEST OR ABOUT 895
MILES…1435 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/HR…
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND
KEVIN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.3N 121.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 11
Aug0
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310849
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS
ALSO SHOWED A SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED EYE…BUT WITH A WELL-DEFINED
OUTER BAND. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT HAS
STARTED…HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO
CORROBORATE THIS. DUE TO THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS…DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBER HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY…BUT A BLEND OF THE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT.
JIMENA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/7 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ARE THE FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN STEERING THE HURRICANE. THE 0000 UTC MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE UPPER-LOW INTACT LONG ENOUGH TO TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OUTLIER TO THIS SOLUTION IS THE UKMET
WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN PREDICTING A TRACK
NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…
AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER AND IN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME…HOWEVER
FLUCTUATIONS COULD OCCUR AS THE RESULT OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS…WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THAT
COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND INDICATES THAT JIMENA COULD REMAIN A VERY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST…A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER THIS MORNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE JIMENA AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE
HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 17.5N 107.9W 125 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 20.1N 109.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.1N 110.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 24.1N 111.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 27.2N 112.7W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 04/0600Z 28.5N 113.3W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 05/0600Z 29.5N 114.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 11
Aug0
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 310844
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
…JIMENA REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE…
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST…AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST…
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES…395 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 395
MILES…635 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES…130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB…27.76 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.5N 107.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…940 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
——————————————————————
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
:// or ://hurricanes.gov
PLEASE NOTE: Timely delivery of this email is NOT GUARANTEED.
DISCLAIMER: ://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
PRIVACY: ://www.weather.gov/privacy.php
FEEDBACK: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
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