HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 10A
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 310543
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
420 MILES...680 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 107.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 10
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310325
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
THE STRUCTURE OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE CONTINUED
TO COOL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB AT
0000 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN NEAR 6.5 FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASING TREND IN THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT. CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS JIMENA WILL
BE IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY HALT ANY
INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. GIVEN THE LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE INNER-CORE CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT-TERM. AROUND 48
HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION
WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE JIMENA TO WEAKEN. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK...AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND...INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/06...A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JIMENA
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 112W WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT
IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL JIMENA NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN WEAKEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
TURN JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION 1800 UTC GFS PARALLEL
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK SCENARIO...WHILE THE
1200 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD
NORTH OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...SUGGESTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE A TRACK CLOSER TO BAJA. THE
MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE EASTWARD
SCENARIO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FOR THIS PACKAGE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
IS REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT ANY
INDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LORETO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 19.2N 109.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.3N 110.2W 125 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 111.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 112.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/0000Z 28.6N 113.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS KEVIN Discussion 7
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 310244
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN CONSISTS
OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER BY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN EARLIER ASCAT
OVERPASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF UNCONTAMINATED 25-30 KT WIND
VECTORS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WITH WEAKER WINDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 3.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT
PASS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND A GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN PREDICTING A CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF KEVIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVEN THOUGH THE
SHEAR APPEARS LOW AND THE WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM. THE KEY TO THE
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 4...IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
KEVIN IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE LATEST MOTION
ESTIMATED AT 005/06. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DANGLING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALBEIT IT FAIRLY SLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
ACCOUNT FOR A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 16.4N 121.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 17.6N 120.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 18.3N 119.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 18.9N 119.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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TS KEVIN Public Advisory 7
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310244
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...KEVIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.7 WEST OR ABOUT 890
MILES...1430 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 121.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 10
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310238
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
THE STRUCTURE OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE CONTINUED
TO COOL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB AT
0000 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN NEAR 6.5 FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASING TREND IN THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT. CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS JIMENA WILL
BE IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY HALT ANY
INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. GIVEN THE LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE INNER-CORE CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT-TERM. AROUND 48
HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION
WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE JIMENA TO WEAKEN. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK...AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND...INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/06...A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JIMENA
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 112W WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT
IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL JIMENA NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN WEAKEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
TURN JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION 1800 UTC GFS PARALLEL
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK SCENARIO...WHILE THE
1200 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD
NORTH OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...SUGGESTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE A TRACK CLOSER TO BAJA. THE
MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE EASTWARD
SCENARIO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FOR THIS PACKAGE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
IS REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LORETO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 19.2N 109.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.3N 110.2W 125 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 111.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 112.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/0000Z 28.6N 113.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 10
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 310237
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA GROWS STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA....
A 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE WATCH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE
WEST COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD
TO SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...
230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 107.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 9
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 302042
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...JIMENA EVEN STRONGER...
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
480 MILES...770 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.6N 106.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 9
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302043
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES...THE EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT...SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM
BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE
...PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND
MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO
BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES...TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF
INTENSE HURRICANES...BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY
UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE
LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS...IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.
THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE GFS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HURRICANE...SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
TRACKS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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TS KEVIN Discussion 6
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302036
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KEVIN HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A LESS THAN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A 1346 UTC QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED A SMALL PATCH OF REASONABLE 40 KT WINDS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
DATA-T NUMBERS ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KEVIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 4
AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
TOWARD AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO AND COINCIDES WITH THE SHIPS AND
HURRICANE MODELS.
KEVIN IS MAINTAINING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON...360/5.
THE STEERING FLOW IS PRODUCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY MID PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE KEVIN TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS AGAIN BASED
ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 15.3N 121.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 121.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 16.6N 120.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 17.3N 120.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 17.9N 119.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W 25 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 19.3N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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TS KEVIN Public Advisory 6
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 302033
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...KEVIN WEAKENING...MOVING NORTHWARD...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST OR ABOUT 940
MILES...1515 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.3N 121.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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