TS KEVIN Discussion 5
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 301444
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN OF KEVIN...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE PRIMARY
BAND HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN PRODUCED BY JIMENA WILL CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...ULTIMATELY TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT KEVIN WILL DISSIPATE IN
96 HOURS OR LESS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/6...WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENT. DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS...KEVIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRODUCED BY A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREES WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF
THE NOGAPS/GFS/GFDL/UKMET AND ECMWF...UPON WHICH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.8N 121.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.4N 121.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 120.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 17.6N 119.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W 35 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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TS KEVIN Public Advisory 5
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 301435
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...KEVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST OR ABOUT 960
MILES...1540 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCING ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 121.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 8
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 301437
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
JIMENA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN EXTREMELY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...WHICH EQUATES TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT OR CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT
VERY PREDICTABLE. NONETHELESS...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS IS BASED ON A
MOTION NEAR AND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SINCE THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD...THE 4 AND 5 DAY INTENSITIES ARE ALSO HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA APPEARS TO DEPEND ON TWO MAIN FACTORS...A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD AND
WEAKENING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE HWRF AND
GFDL DO NOT WEAKEN THE LOW OR BUILD THE RIDGE AS MUCH.
CONSEQUENTLY THE GFDL/HWRF TAKE JIMENA BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE
RIDGE...AND OVER BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT JIMENA TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF BAJA. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND
MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.
INTEREST IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.3N 106.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.1N 107.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.4N 108.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 109.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 8
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301432
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...JIMENA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES
...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 106.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 7
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300859
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA HAS REAPPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE TINY EYE HAS WARMED A
LITTLE AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THESE VERY
RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY YIELD DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AROUND T5.5...WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 100 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS JIMENA
WILL TRAVERSE VERY WARM SSTS AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND SHOWS
JIMENA REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK IT COULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND A LITTLE STRONGER.
ALTHOUGH...THIS IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. ALL IN ALL...THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF JIMENA IN THE 3-5 DAY
TIME FRAME.
JIMENA IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 305/10. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WHICH SHOULD
STEER JIMENA NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE UPPER-LOW STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPART A FASTER NORTHERN
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE. THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TAKING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE UKMET AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE LOW
AND BUILD IN THE RIDGE...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD
COURSE. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
ONCE AGAIN AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER....THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.0N 105.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 16.8N 106.8W 110 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.9N 107.9W 125 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.2N 108.9W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 24.5N 111.9W 100 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 28.5N 115.0W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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TS KEVIN Discussion 4
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300848
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
ALTHOUGH KEVIN HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED JUST UNDERNEATH THE
HEAD OF A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND THIS PATTERN IS YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A 0243 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.
WITH THE HELP OF A 0045 UTC TRMM AND A 0155 UTC WINDSAT PASS...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/6. KEVIN LIES ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN IT AND HURRICANE
JIMENA...AND THIS IS CAUSING THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND KEVIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THAT TIME. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW KEVIN WILL INTERACT
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JIMENA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PLAYING A GAME OF PINBALL...PULLING KEVIN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
JIMENA AND THEN PUSHING IT BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARD A
NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST. THE
HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE ONLY TWO WHICH STILL SHOW KEVIN
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION BY
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN STRENGTHENING VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. KEVIN WILL REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATER...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALSO...BOTH
THE GFDL AND HWRF INDICATE NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND STEADY
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT KEVIN WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHOWS
SLOW WEAKENING STARTING AT 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE A COHERENT
VORTEX BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KEVIN MAY NOT
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THEN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.1N 121.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 15.5N 121.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 16.2N 120.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 120.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 119.1W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 19.2N 118.2W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TS KEVIN Public Advisory 4
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 300845
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...KEVIN MOVING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST OR ABOUT 995
MILES...1600 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.1N 121.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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HURR JIMENA Public Advisory 7
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300847
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...JIMENA BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 550 MILES
...885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.0N 105.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURR JIMENA Discussion 6
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300241
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
WHILE THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY IS
NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...SSM/I DATA AT 0106 UTC SHOWS IT IS
STILL PRESENT UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE MICROWAVE DATA
ALSO SHOWED AN OUTER BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT MAY BE THE PRECURSOR OF AN OUTER EYEWALL. SINCE THE EYE IS
NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE
HURRICANE IS STILL INTENSIFYING. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 90 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
JIMENA HAS TURNED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION NOW 305/10. THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
27N111W. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD AND PUSH THE WEAKENING LOW INTO THE PACIFIC...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW JIMENA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND HWRF
KEEP THE LOW STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO TURN
JIMENA NORTHWARD WITH A LANDFALL IN WESTERN MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED WELL IN SIMILAR PAST SITUATIONS
AND THUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST JIMENA TO SHEAR APART IN THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN TO SUCH A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE.
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE CURRENT MOTION THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE NEW TRACK IS
NEAR THE THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS...AS WELL AS
NEAR THE GFS DYNAMICAL MODEL.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 48 HR...AS JIMENA WILL BE OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT IN 36 HR. IT
IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT JIMENA COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...JIMENA WOULD REACH COOLER SSTS AFTER 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN. THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 72 HR MAKE THE FORECAST MORE
PROBLEMATIC.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT CABO
CORRIENTES IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND IF THESE MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO
BE VERIFYING WATCHES OR WARNING COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT
TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN
BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 15.8N 105.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 106.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 18.2N 108.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 19.5N 109.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 114.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 117.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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