TD EIGHT Public Advisory 3
Sep0
000
WTNT33 KNHC 260834
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2009
…DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH…
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT
660 MILES…1060 KM…WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…
22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.6N 33.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD EIGHT Discussion 2
Sep0
000
WTNT43 KNHC 260236
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION WAS MINIMAL BUT IT HAS BEGUN TO
BLOSSOM AS WE SPEAK. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED…FOR
THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…AND THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER…
STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING…AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR SOONER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS WHILE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SINCE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE…THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THE
PRESENCE OF THE DEPRESSION OR DEPICT THE DEPRESSION AS A SMALL
VORTMAX.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.4N 32.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 18.4N 33.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 19.6N 36.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 37.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 38.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TD EIGHT Public Advisory 2
Sep0
000
WTNT33 KNHC 260232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009
…TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND AWAY FROM
LAND…
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST OR ABOUT
560 MILES…900 KM…WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY BUT
IT SHOULD WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.4N 32.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TD EIGHT Discussion 1
Sep0
000
WTNT43 KNHC 252034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE
DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
25 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 12 HR
OR SO…WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LIKELY TAKING THE CYCLONE NEAR AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY 48 HR. THIS…COMBINED WITH A TONGUE OF
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST
12 HR…FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR
OR SO…THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BEFORE DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.4N 31.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 33.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 35.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.8N 36.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.4N 38.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 39.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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TD EIGHT Public Advisory 1
Sep0
000
WTNT33 KNHC 252033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009
…EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC…NO THREAT TO LAND…
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE
31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES…815 KM…WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…
22 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY…BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.4N 31.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Sep0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
325 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 TO 50 PERCENT…OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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TD NORA Discussion 10
Sep0
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250832
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009
NORA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 2200 UTC
THURSDAY…AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE LOW COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C.
HOWEVER…INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 0500 UTC…AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE GLOBAL MODELS…EXCLUDING THE
GFS. THE END RESULT IS A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
NORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W 30 KT…REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 25/1800Z 17.1N 123.3W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.0N 124.8W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 20 KT…DISSIPATING
96HR VT 29/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD NORA Public Advisory 10
Sep0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250831
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009
…NORA NOW A REMNANT LOW…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF OF THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS
FORMERLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2
NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST OR ABOUT 890 MILES…1430 KM…
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR…
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.2N 122.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON NORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TD NORA Discussion 9
Sep0
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORA IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR…AND THE LAST LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISSIPATED BETWEEN 2300 AND 0000 UTC. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB…RESPECTIVELY…AND
THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM UW-CIMSS IS T2.0.
NORA IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION COULD STILL OCCUR SINCE NORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C FOR SEVERAL DAYS…BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST
CALLS FOR NORA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON AND DISSIPATE BY DAY
4…BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT. EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS…WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN OUTLIER…THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH
OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON DAY 3 DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
CAUSED BY A COLD FRONT WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.4N 121.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.3N 122.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 124.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 127.3W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TD NORA Public Advisory 9
Sep0
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250232
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
…NORA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
AT 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST OR ABOUT
850 MILES…1365 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED…AND NORA IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.4N 121.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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