TS NORA Discussion 8
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DEGRADED CLOUD PATTERN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN
APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
NORA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. NORA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
NORA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 120.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 17.4N 121.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 123.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 124.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.6N 126.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
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TS NORA Public Advisory 8
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242032
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
...NORA STARTS TO WEAKEN...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST OR ABOUT
800 MILES...1285 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORA IS ENCOUNTERING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 120.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
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TS NORA Discussion 7
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241442
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
NORA IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RECENT TRMM DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. USING A
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT.
NORA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IN 36 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.
MICROWAVE FIXES HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...RESULTING IN A MORE
CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 290/4. THE STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TURNING MORE
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS
OF NORA IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 17.3N 120.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 120.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 122.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.1N 123.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
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TS NORA Public Advisory 7
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241442
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
...NORA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST OR ABOUT
760 MILES...1225 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORA IS ENCOUNTERING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 120.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
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TS NORA Discussion 6
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240835
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORA DECREASED IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO THE GOES-WEST ECLIPSE
PERIOD. THIS LIKELY OCCURRED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...ALONG WITH A
DRYING TREND IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INDICATED BY SHIPS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL-T
NUMBERS WERE A UNANIMOUS 3.0 AT 0600 UTC...AND ON THIS BASIS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT NORA HAS
PEAKED. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS AT LEAST 15-20 KT OF SHEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. NORA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND BE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.
BASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE FIXES AND GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY PRIOR TO
THE ECLIPSE...NORA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/04 WAS
USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. AS NORA WEAKENS...
THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 3 OR 4 DAYS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...ALLOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF NORA TO GAIN
SOME LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THEN IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5
THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 0150 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 17.2N 119.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 121.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 124.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0600Z 19.6N 131.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS NORA Public Advisory 6
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240832
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
...NORA WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST OR ABOUT 720
MILES...1160 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 119.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS NORA Discussion 5
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240237
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF NORA HAS CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE PROMINENT BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN SIZE. UPPER-LEVEL
CIRRUS MOTIONS AROUND NORA SUGGEST THAT SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS MAY BE A BIT SEPARATED. NONETHELESS...DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS 55 KT. A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...THE INTENSITY MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOW INCLUDING THE GFDL AND HWRF...
SHOWS NORA BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE STORM IS LOCATED BENEATH A
NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUT IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS NOT
READILY APPARENT HOW MUCH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SEPARATED FROM
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. NOW THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NO LONGER
INDICATE AS MUCH STRENGTHENING...THEIR TRACKS DO NOT SHOW A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND ARE CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN HAS SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS NOW AGREEING
ON A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH...BUT IT IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.0N 119.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 120.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 121.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.3N 122.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 123.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TS NORA Public Advisory 5
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240237
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
...NORA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST OR ABOUT 725
MILES...1165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 119.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TS NORA Discussion 4
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232033
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY IN AN UPWARD
TREND. THE PATTERN RESEMBLES A NUMBER SIX WITH A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH WRAPS AROUND A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SHEAR GIVEN
THAT THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL DIRECTIONS. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THESE NUMBERS...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS. NORA HAS A DAY OR TWO TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR MAKES
NORA A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO AND ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE NORTH OF NORA WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE NORA TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS BEFORE NORA BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEFINITELY
WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR MOVE NORA ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
BUT THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC AT THIS TIME WITH
THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 16.8N 118.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 17.2N 119.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 120.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 17.3N 121.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 125.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TS NORA Public Advisory 4
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232032
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
...NORA A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...FAR AWAY FROM LAND...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST OR ABOUT 705
MILES...1135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.8N 118.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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