TS NORA Discussion 3
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231451
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
NORA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS A
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS FORMED WITH AN OUTER BAND IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY FAIR TO
GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY. NORA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NORA. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER NORA GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE MOTION
BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG NORA GETS. A STRONGER AND
VERTICALLY DEEPER SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS
FORECAST BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS. A WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER NORA SHOULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD AS FORECAST BY THE
BAMS...GFS...AND ECMWF. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO...WITH A SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION AFTER
36 HR.
NORA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 24 HR MORE...FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SHEAR AS NORA REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORA SHOULD STRENGTHEN
FOR A DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...CALLING
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN 24 HR AND WEAKENING TO A REMNANT
LOW BY 72 HR. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A
25 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT
24 HR...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT NORA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE STRONGER SHEAR. THE GFDL AND HWRF SUPPORT
THIS POSSIBILITY BY FORECASTING NORA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...THIS OCCURS IN BOTH MODELS ONLY AFTER THE STRONGER SHEAR
DEVELOPS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.5N 117.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.9N 118.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 119.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 17.2N 120.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 17.3N 121.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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TS NORA Discussion 2
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230850
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING
FROM A BLOB OF CENTRAL CONVECTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO A SPIRAL
BANDING PATTERN...RESULTING IN A MORE ORGANIZED APPEARANCE. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0218 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST
30 KT AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0537 UTC GENERALLY SHOWED STRONGER WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION THAN THE QUIKSCAT...BUT STILL SHOWED A
PEAK WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 30 KT. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB WERE 35 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AT 0600 UTC...WITH AMSU
ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 40-45 KT. AFTER CONSIDERING THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND GENERAL LOW BIAS OF ASCAT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 35 KT.
NORA APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 24-36 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST DUE TO A LARGE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...HWRF/GFDL...
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE MORE THAN THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF MAKING NORA A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.
IT IS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
DOES SHOW A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT REMAINS CLOSER
TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. IN THE LONGER-TERM...
THE HWRF/GFDL PROBABLY SHOW TOO STRONG OF A SYSTEM IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A COMMON BIAS OF THOSE MODELS. COOLER WATERS AND
STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING OF NORA INTO A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS.
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED SET THE INITIAL
MOTION TO 310/7...THOUGH THE RECENT ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER
COULD BE MOVING A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS STEERING THE CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD...CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF NORA...OR IF THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
CAUSES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE. THE GFS/GFDL/ECMWF/HWRF
GENERALLY FAVOR A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... WHILE THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUPPORT A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. MY INCLINATION IS TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE EQUATORWARD
SOLUTION AS THIS SYSTEM SEEMS UNLIKELY TO GET STRONG ENOUGH TO FEEL
THE FULL EFFECTS OF THAT TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE LEFT...BUT IS NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO
CONTINUITY CONSIDERATIONS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE
FORECAST SHIFTED FARTHER WESTWARD LATER TODAY. IN A FEW DAYS...A
MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GAIN
LATITUDE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE QUITE
WEAK BY THAT TIME AND UNABLE TO RESPOND TO THAT STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.1N 116.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.6N 117.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 17.0N 118.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 119.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.4N 120.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TS NORA Public Advisory 2
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230850
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
...THE 14TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...NO THREAT TO
LAND...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1040 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.1N 116.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TD SEVENTEEN-E Discussion 1
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230246
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION ORGANIZATION TO BE
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SEVENTEENTH OF THE
SEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS COMPRISED OF AN ELONGATED AND FAIRLY
SHAPELESS MASS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
T 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR SETTING THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT. WITHIN 24 HOURS... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING AND SHOULD BECOME PROHIBITIVELY
STRONG BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING THIS HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE DEPRESSION HAS SOME OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS...WITH
THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE
AND DOES NOT CONSIDER THE GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS WHICH CALL
FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THESE FORECASTS APPEAR TO
BE UNREALISTIC..GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL IN THE INITIAL MOTION...WHICH
IS ESTIMATED AT 320/08. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 115 WEST AND 120 WEST...WHICH SHOULD
STEER THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOULD CAUSE A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A REDUCED
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.7N 115.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 16.4N 116.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 117.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 17.6N 118.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.8N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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TD SEVENTEEN-E Public Advisory 1
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230245
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2009
...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EAST
PACIFIC...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7
WEST OR ABOUT 625 MILES...1005 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE
WEST ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.7N 115.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TD MARTY Discussion 15
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192043
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009
MARTY HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0500
UTC...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. MARTY STILL HAS
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. AS MARTY MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW
DISSIPATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 22.9N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.1N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 20/1800Z 23.2N 122.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 21/0600Z 23.1N 124.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/1800Z 22.8N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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