TD RICK Discussion 26
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 212031
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON RICK.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM. REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 24.5N 104.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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TD RICK Public Advisory 26
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 212031
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
...RICK HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF RICK WERE ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240
KM...NORTHEAST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
THE REMNANTS OF RICK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RICK WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.5N 104.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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TD RICK Public Advisory 25A
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 211742
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
...RICK WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...
AT 11 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...NORTHEAST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17
MPH...27 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.9N 105.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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TS RICK Discussion 25
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 211449
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO AND SATELLITE
IMAGES...THE CENTER OF RICK HAS CROSSED THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE STATION REPORTED WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 1200 UTC TO THE SOUTHWEST MORE RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...THIS SITE
MEASURED A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB NEAR 1200 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA AND
A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 45 KT. ONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...RICK IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KT.
A 0900 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED TO
SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS
INCREASED AND RICK IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT
15 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 23.4N 106.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 104.4W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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TS RICK Public Advisory 25
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 211448
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
...RICK CROSSED THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR MAZATLAN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
THE CENTER OF RICK MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
MAZATLAN AROUND 7 AM PDT...1400 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF ABOUT 55 MPH...90 KM/HR WINDS.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND WILL
BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES...
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO TODAY...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.4N 106.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TS RICK Public Advisory 24A
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 211137
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
500 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
...RICK WEAKENING FAST AS IT NEARS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO....
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...IN THIS CASE...
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RICK HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK WILL
BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO TODAY...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.3N 107.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
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TS RICK Discussion 24
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 210859
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH RICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CONSIST OF A SHIELD OF PULSATING DEEP
CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE...WITH A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT
TO ITS SOUTHEAST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE 3.0 AND 3.5
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH A
0148 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED A MAX INTENSITY OF AT LEAST
55 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES CURRENTLY INDICATE NEARLY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER RICK...AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE
PROHIBITIVELY HIGH VALUES OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING PRIOR
TO LANDFALL IN SPITE OF SSTS WARMING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 24-36 HOURS ONCE THE CENTER QUICKLY MOVES
WELL INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
THE CENTER REMAINS EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND...EVEN WITH
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS
TO HAVE INCREASED AND IS ESTIMATED AT 050/12. AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD STEER RICK ON A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED...AT
LEAST UNTIL LANDFALL...WHEN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
RICK WILL SHEAR APART.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.8N 108.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 23.1N 106.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 24.3N 104.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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TS RICK Public Advisory 24
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 210856
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
...RICK RESUMES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-
CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.8N 108.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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TS RICK Public Advisory 23A
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 210549
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
...RAINS FROM RICK CONTINUE OVER MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RICK HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVERNIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IMPACT MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL...
BUT A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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