TS RICK Discussion 23
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 210238
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS EVENING WITH RICK AS VERY
DEEP THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED ON THE INFRARED
CHANNEL...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SHEAR
WITH THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...AND SO WILL
THE INTITIAL WIND SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIKELY
CANCELLING OUT THE EFFECTS OF WARMER WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL...
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE RAPID AS RICK RUNS INTO THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HR.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE RECONNAISSANCE LEFT...
BUT AN ESTIMATE OF 050/10 IS USED AS A COMPROMISE OF CONVENTIONAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICK NORTHEASTWARD AND CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WERE TO DECOUPLE...
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THAT SITUATION OCCURS...THE
SYSTEM COULD MOVE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 20.9N 109.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 23.7N 105.5W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 103.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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TS RICK Public Advisory 23
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 210236
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
...RAINS FROM RICK ALREADY AFFECTING MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IMPACT MAINLAND MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL...
AND A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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TS RICK Public Advisory 22A
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 202350
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
...RICK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
SAN BLAS TO ALTATA...FOR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA
VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 275 MILES
...445 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 109.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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TS RICK Discussion 22
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 202032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RICK THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB. IN
ADDITION...THE PEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATED FROM THE SFMR WAS 55 KT
WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AGAIN HELD AT 55 KT. RICK IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABOUT
20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL NO
LONGER SHOWS MUCH DECREASE IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE IT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER
LANDFALL...MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND
MEXICO.
AIRCRAFT FIXES AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMED PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL MOTION OF 045/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEER RICK
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.4N 110.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 23.2N 106.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 25.2N 103.9W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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TS RICK Public Advisory 22
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 202032
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
...RICK CONTINUES WITH 65 MPH WINDS...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM
BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO
LA PAZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 305 MILES
...495 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.4N 110.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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TS RICK Public Advisory 21A
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 201733
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS RICK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LA PAZ...AND FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD THROUGH
ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.0N 110.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
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TS RICK Discussion 21
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 201453
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RICK HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS
TO -80 C IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE A UNANIMOUS 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE RICK AND WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF RICK LATER TODAY.
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF RICK PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW
STEADY WEAKENING TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING BACK TO A HURRICANE IN THE
SHORT-TERM. SINCE SHEAR MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK...
THIS FORECAST WILL HOLD RICK STEADY-STATE THROUGH LANDFALL RATHER
THAN SHOWING WEAKENING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...
STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
BECOME DECOUPLED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICK IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH THE
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/06. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL CAUSE RICK TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A
LITTLE FASTER TO TREND TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 20.1N 110.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 21.1N 109.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 22.7N 107.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 105.3W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1200Z 26.4N 102.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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TS RICK Public Advisory 21
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 201452
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
...RICK MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LA PAZ...AND FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD THROUGH
ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
90 MILES...145 KM...NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 110.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TS RICK Public Advisory 20A
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 201136
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
...RICK MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LA PAZ...AND FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD THROUGH
ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 165 MILES...270 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.7N 111.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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:// or ://hurricanes.gov
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