NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO=
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODER=
ATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND=
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWE=
EN 111W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORT=
HERN PORTION OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N1=
13W TO 27N120W TO 24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TR=
OUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER L=
EVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION =
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIF=
FLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N14=
0W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS=
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EX=
IST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM TH=
E DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEIN=
G ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RID=
GE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS=
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR 13N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTE=
NDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE=
ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING =
FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 136W. THESE TRADES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 =
KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP =
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANW=
HILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N BETWEEN 121W AND =
126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. 1011 MB LOW P=
RES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WNW DURING TH=
E NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT=
ED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE =
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS=
...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIEN=
T OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKE=
LY INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER =
BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SURFACE =
WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW IN THE SW=
CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE WAVEWATCH BASED UPON TH=
ESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS=
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FOR=
ECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY=
EXISTING 8 TO 9 FT SW SWELL. $$ LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N113W TO 27N120W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND
103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR
13N95W.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 19N W OF
136W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N.
MEANWHILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 121W AND 126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24 HOURS.
1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WNW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS
MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC
GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS
DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW
SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE
WAVEWATCH BASED UPON THESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH
OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN
THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY EXISTING 8 TO 9
FT SW SWELL.
$$
LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
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