NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO=
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODER=
ATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND=
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWE=
EN 111W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORT=
HERN PORTION OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N1=
13W TO 27N120W TO 24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TR=
OUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER L=
EVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION =
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIF=
FLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N14=
0W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS=
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EX=
IST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM TH=
E DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEIN=
G ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RID=
GE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS=
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR 13N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTE=
NDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE=
ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING =
FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 136W. THESE TRADES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 =
KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP =
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANW=
HILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N BETWEEN 121W AND =
126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. 1011 MB LOW P=
RES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WNW DURING TH=
E NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT=
ED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE =
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS=
...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIEN=
T OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKE=
LY INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER =
BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SURFACE =
WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW IN THE SW=
CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE WAVEWATCH BASED UPON TH=
ESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS=
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FOR=
ECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY=
EXISTING 8 TO 9 FT SW SWELL. $$ LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N113W TO 27N120W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND
103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR
13N95W.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 19N W OF
136W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N.
MEANWHILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 121W AND 126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24 HOURS.
1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WNW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS
MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC
GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS
DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW
SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE
WAVEWATCH BASED UPON THESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH
OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN
THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY EXISTING 8 TO 9
FT SW SWELL.
$$
LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO=
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODER=
ATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND=
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWE=
EN 111W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORT=
HERN PORTION OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N1=
13W TO 27N120W TO 24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TR=
OUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER L=
EVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION =
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIF=
FLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N14=
0W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS=
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EX=
IST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM TH=
E DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEIN=
G ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RID=
GE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS=
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR 13N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTE=
NDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE=
ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING =
FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 136W. THESE TRADES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 =
KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP =
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANW=
HILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N BETWEEN 121W AND =
126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. 1011 MB LOW P=
RES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WNW DURING TH=
E NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT=
ED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE =
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS=
...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIEN=
T OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKE=
LY INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER =
BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SURFACE =
WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW IN THE SW=
CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE WAVEWATCH BASED UPON TH=
ESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS=
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FOR=
ECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY=
EXISTING 8 TO 9 FT SW SWELL. $$ LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
________________________________________________________________________
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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N113W TO 27N120W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND
103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR
13N95W.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 19N W OF
136W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N.
MEANWHILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 121W AND 126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24 HOURS.
1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WNW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS
MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC
GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS
DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW
SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE
WAVEWATCH BASED UPON THESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH
OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN
THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY EXISTING 8 TO 9
FT SW SWELL.
$$
LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
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MD 20910
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------=_Part_1769865_2128589064.1275361320699--
------=_Part_1769864_1965150211.1275361320699--
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------=_Part_1769864_1965150211.1275361320699
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Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO=
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODER=
ATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND=
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWE=
EN 111W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORT=
HERN PORTION OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N1=
13W TO 27N120W TO 24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TR=
OUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER L=
EVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION =
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIF=
FLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N14=
0W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS=
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EX=
IST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM TH=
E DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEIN=
G ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RID=
GE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS=
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR 13N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTE=
NDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE=
ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING =
FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 136W. THESE TRADES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 =
KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP =
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANW=
HILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N BETWEEN 121W AND =
126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. 1011 MB LOW P=
RES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WNW DURING TH=
E NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT=
ED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE =
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS=
...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIEN=
T OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKE=
LY INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER =
BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SURFACE =
WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW IN THE SW=
CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE WAVEWATCH BASED UPON TH=
ESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS=
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FOR=
ECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY=
EXISTING 8 TO 9 FT SW SWELL. $$ LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
________________________________________________________________________
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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N113W TO 27N120W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND
103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR
13N95W.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 19N W OF
136W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N.
MEANWHILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 121W AND 126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24 HOURS.
1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WNW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS
MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC
GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS
DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW
SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE
WAVEWATCH BASED UPON THESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH
OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN
THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY EXISTING 8 TO 9
FT SW SWELL.
$$
LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
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------=_Part_1769865_2128589064.1275361320699--
------=_Part_1769864_1965150211.1275361320699--
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------=_Part_1769864_1965150211.1275361320699
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_Part_1769865_2128589064.1275361320699"
------=_Part_1769865_2128589064.1275361320699
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO=
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODER=
ATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND=
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWE=
EN 111W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORT=
HERN PORTION OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N1=
13W TO 27N120W TO 24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TR=
OUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER L=
EVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION =
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIF=
FLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N14=
0W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS=
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EX=
IST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM TH=
E DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEIN=
G ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RID=
GE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS=
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR 13N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTE=
NDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE=
ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING =
FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 136W. THESE TRADES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 =
KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP =
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANW=
HILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N BETWEEN 121W AND =
126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. 1011 MB LOW P=
RES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WNW DURING TH=
E NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT=
ED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE =
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS=
...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIEN=
T OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKE=
LY INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER =
BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SURFACE =
WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW IN THE SW=
CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE WAVEWATCH BASED UPON TH=
ESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS=
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FOR=
ECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY=
EXISTING 8 TO 9 FT SW SWELL. $$ LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
________________________________________________________________________
To change your subscriptions or preferences or stop subscriptions anytime, =
log in to your User [ https://service.govdelivery.com/service/user.=
html?code=3DUSNWS&login=3D##email## ] with your e-mail address. For questio=
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url=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fsharing.govdelivery.com%2Fbulletins%2FGD%2FUSNWS-CEDDC&t=
itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's National Weath=
er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
------=_Part_1769865_2128589064.1275361320699
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Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
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}
=09
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=09
NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 22:01:15 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 01 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W TO 07N106W TO 09N116W TO 06N132W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N113W TO 27N120W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 09N140W AND NE TO 15N110W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 94W AND
103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO NEAR
13N95W.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N118W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 19N W OF
136W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY AND DROP BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD IN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF 15N.
MEANWHILE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 121W AND 126W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24 HOURS.
1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N117W AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WNW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS
MAINTAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR BY THE 18 UTC
GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...WHILE THE 18 UTC NOGAPS
DECAYS THE SYSTEM TO A TROUGH. THE SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOUTH OF PANAMA...THE 18 UTC GFS ENHANCES THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW
SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 12 KT FROM THE
WAVEWATCH BASED UPON THESE STRENGTHENED WINDS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SW WINDS WILL EVEN REACH
OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS IN
THE REGION BELOW 20 KT AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENTLY EXISTING 8 TO 9
FT SW SWELL.
$$
LEWITSKY/LANDSEA
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nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
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------=_Part_1769865_2128589064.1275361320699--
------=_Part_1769864_1965150211.1275361320699--
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504"
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO=
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N=
OTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF T=
HE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BET=
WEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NO=
TED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. ...DISCUSS=
ION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA STR=
ETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO 24N140W. V=
ERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPE=
R LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W =
TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE=
SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND=
120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROU=
ND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNI=
A AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT
EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM=
THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE=
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE A=
NTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTIC=
YCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADO=
R TO NEAR 13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGA=
THA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUG=
H ANY NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH SATUR=
ATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FR=
OM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ =
UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM=
08N TO 18N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DU=
RING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS..=
.MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N =
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24-30 =
HOURS. 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STA=
TIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 N=
M OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60=
NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINI=
SHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME. $$ LEWITSKY
________________________________________________________________________
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------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
=09
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=09font-size: 12px;
=09font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif;
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=09
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=09
NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
111W AND 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND
107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO NEAR
13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH ANY
NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 18N W
OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF
15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24-30 HOURS.
1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME.
$$
LEWITSKY
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=09
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=09
=20
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=09=09
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=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
MD 20910
=09=09
=09
=09
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504--
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504--
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504"
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO=
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N=
OTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF T=
HE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BET=
WEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NO=
TED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. ...DISCUSS=
ION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA STR=
ETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO 24N140W. V=
ERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPE=
R LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W =
TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE=
SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND=
120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROU=
ND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNI=
A AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT
EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM=
THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE=
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE A=
NTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTIC=
YCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADO=
R TO NEAR 13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGA=
THA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUG=
H ANY NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH SATUR=
ATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FR=
OM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ =
UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM=
08N TO 18N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DU=
RING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS..=
.MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N =
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24-30 =
HOURS. 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STA=
TIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 N=
M OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60=
NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINI=
SHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME. $$ LEWITSKY
________________________________________________________________________
To change your subscriptions or preferences or stop subscriptions anytime, =
log in to your User [ https://service.govdelivery.com/service/user.=
html?code=3DUSNWS&login=3D##email## ] with your e-mail address. For questio=
ns or problems with the service, contact support@govdelivery.com.=20
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20
This email was sent to ##email##.=20
Bookmark and Share [ ://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=3Dgovdelivery&=
url=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fsharing.govdelivery.com%2Fbulletins%2FGD%2FUSNWS-CED7E&t=
itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's National Weath=
er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
body {
=09font-size: 12px;
=09font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif;
=09font-weight: normal;
=09font-style: normal;
}
.physicalAddress {
=09color: gray;
=09font-size: 10px;
=09font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif;
=09font-weight: 100;
}
=09
=09
=09
=09
NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
111W AND 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND
107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO NEAR
13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH ANY
NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 18N W
OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF
15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24-30 HOURS.
1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME.
$$
LEWITSKY
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferences or stop subscriptions anytim=
e, log in to your User =
with your e-mail address. For questions or problems with the service, =
contact support@govdelivery.com.=20
=20
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=20
=20
=20
This email was sent to ##email##.=20
=09
=09=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09=09
=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
MD 20910
=09=09
=09
=09
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504--
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504--
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504"
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO=
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N=
OTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF T=
HE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BET=
WEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NO=
TED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. ...DISCUSS=
ION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA STR=
ETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO 24N140W. V=
ERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPE=
R LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W =
TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE=
SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND=
120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROU=
ND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNI=
A AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT
EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM=
THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE=
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE A=
NTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTIC=
YCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADO=
R TO NEAR 13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGA=
THA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUG=
H ANY NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH SATUR=
ATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FR=
OM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ =
UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM=
08N TO 18N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DU=
RING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS..=
.MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N =
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24-30 =
HOURS. 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STA=
TIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 N=
M OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60=
NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINI=
SHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME. $$ LEWITSKY
________________________________________________________________________
To change your subscriptions or preferences or stop subscriptions anytime, =
log in to your User [ https://service.govdelivery.com/service/user.=
html?code=3DUSNWS&login=3D##email## ] with your e-mail address. For questio=
ns or problems with the service, contact support@govdelivery.com.=20
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20
This email was sent to ##email##.=20
Bookmark and Share [ ://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=3Dgovdelivery&=
url=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fsharing.govdelivery.com%2Fbulletins%2FGD%2FUSNWS-CED7E&t=
itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's National Weath=
er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
body {
=09font-size: 12px;
=09font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif;
=09font-weight: normal;
=09font-style: normal;
}
.physicalAddress {
=09color: gray;
=09font-size: 10px;
=09font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif;
=09font-weight: 100;
}
=09
=09
=09
=09
NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
111W AND 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND
107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO NEAR
13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH ANY
NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 18N W
OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF
15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24-30 HOURS.
1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME.
$$
LEWITSKY
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------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504--
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504--
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504"
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO=
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N=
OTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF T=
HE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BET=
WEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NO=
TED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. ...DISCUSS=
ION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA STR=
ETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO 24N140W. V=
ERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPE=
R LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W =
TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE=
SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND=
120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROU=
ND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNI=
A AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT
EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM=
THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE=
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE A=
NTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTIC=
YCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADO=
R TO NEAR 13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGA=
THA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUG=
H ANY NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH SATUR=
ATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FR=
OM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ =
UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM=
08N TO 18N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DU=
RING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS..=
.MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N =
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24-30 =
HOURS. 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STA=
TIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 N=
M OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60=
NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINI=
SHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME. $$ LEWITSKY
________________________________________________________________________
To change your subscriptions or preferences or stop subscriptions anytime, =
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html?code=3DUSNWS&login=3D##email## ] with your e-mail address. For questio=
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itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20
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er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
111W AND 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND
107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO NEAR
13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH ANY
NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 18N W
OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF
15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24-30 HOURS.
1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME.
$$
LEWITSKY
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nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
MD 20910
=09=09
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------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504--
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504--
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------=_Part_4591393_592392026.1275341461504
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504"
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO=
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N=
OTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF T=
HE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BET=
WEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NO=
TED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. ...DISCUSS=
ION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA STR=
ETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO 24N140W. V=
ERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPE=
R LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W =
TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE=
SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND=
120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROU=
ND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNI=
A AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT
EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM=
THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE=
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE A=
NTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTIC=
YCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADO=
R TO NEAR 13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGA=
THA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUG=
H ANY NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH SATUR=
ATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FR=
OM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ =
UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM=
08N TO 18N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DU=
RING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS..=
.MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N =
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24-30 =
HOURS. 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STA=
TIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 N=
M OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60=
NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINI=
SHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME. $$ LEWITSKY
________________________________________________________________________
To change your subscriptions or preferences or stop subscriptions anytime, =
log in to your User [ https://service.govdelivery.com/service/user.=
html?code=3DUSNWS&login=3D##email## ] with your e-mail address. For questio=
ns or problems with the service, contact support@govdelivery.com.=20
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20
This email was sent to ##email##.=20
Bookmark and Share [ ://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=3Dgovdelivery&=
url=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fsharing.govdelivery.com%2Fbulletins%2FGD%2FUSNWS-CED7E&t=
itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's National Weath=
er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
------=_Part_4591394_598593490.1275341461504
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
=09
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=09
=09
=09
body {
=09font-size: 12px;
=09font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif;
=09font-weight: normal;
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=09font-weight: 100;
}
=09
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=09
NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500
=09
=09
=09
=09
=09
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
111W AND 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND
107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO NEAR
13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH ANY
NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 18N W
OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF
15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24-30 HOURS.
1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME.
$$
LEWITSKY
=09
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=09
=09
=09
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferences or stop subscriptions anytim=
e, log in to your User =
with your e-mail address. For questions or problems with the service, =
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=20
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=20
This email was sent to ##email##.=20
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=09=09
=09
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=09
=09
=09=09
=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
MD 20910
=09=09
=09
=09
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500"
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ..=
.ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO=
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N=
OTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF T=
HE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BET=
WEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NO=
TED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. ...DISCUSS=
ION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA STR=
ETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO 24N140W. V=
ERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPE=
R LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W =
TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE=
SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND=
120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROU=
ND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNI=
A AND INTO MEXICO. CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT
EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM=
THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THE JET AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE=
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE A=
NTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTIC=
YCLONE POSITIONED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADO=
R TO NEAR 13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGA=
THA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUG=
H ANY NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH SATUR=
ATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FR=
OM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ =
UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM=
08N TO 18N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DU=
RING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS..=
.MAINLY S OF 15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N =
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24-30 =
HOURS. 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STA=
TIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 N=
M OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60=
NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINI=
SHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME. $$ LEWITSKY
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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon, 31 May 2010 16:25:43 -0500
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 31 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 07N107W TO 10N117W TO 09N120W TO
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
111W AND 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO 26N128W TO
24N140W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N140W AND NE TO 15N105W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDS NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MEXICO.
CORE WINDS SPEEDS OF 70-85 KT EXIST WITH THIS JET AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OUT AHEAD OF
THE JET AXIS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH ITCZ
CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED SE-S OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 96W AND
107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO NEAR
13N95W. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH ANY
NEW RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 16N110W.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK N OF THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 18N W
OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAINLY S OF
15N. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT REMAINS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
24-30 HOURS.
1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE...90 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THAT TIME.
$$
LEWITSKY
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