June « 2010 « Hurricane Advisories

30Jun/100

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 22:19:31 -0500"

000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010319 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ..=
.TROPICAL LOWS.... THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF CELIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB S=
URFACE LOW NEAR 16N124W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM IN TH=
E NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND IS FORECAST T=
O GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROP=
ICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 3N. POSITION IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AS THE SIG=
NATURE IS PARTIALLY MASKED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO HURRICANE ALEX I=
N THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITC=
Z AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N77W TO 08N82W TO 10N90W THEN RESUMES AT 10=
N95W TO 08N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 86W TO 88W. CLUSTERS OF SCAT=
TERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 83=
W AND 87W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM OVER THE D=
ESERT SW INTO THE E PAC WATERS TO NEAR 20N125W. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...A=
N UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE BEYO=
ND 13N119W AND SW BEYOND 18N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W ARE VERY DRY W=
ITH ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 110W
WITH NE UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF AREA E=
XTENDS A RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF 2=
0N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW OF C=
ELIA IS MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE AREA OF N=
LY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE NE WATERS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD. =
THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 105W IS AN AREA OF ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOSITURE =
BEING TRAINED INTO THE AREA OF HURRICANE ALEX.
HOWEVER...THE AREA IS COVERED MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHO=
WERS BUT LIGHTNING DATA DOES NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT=
TIME. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO CROSS THE EQUA=
TOR OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELLS=
SHOULD REACH THE EQUATOR BY EARLY THU BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT BY FRI. $$ PA=
W

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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 22:19:31 -0500

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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010319
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS....

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF CELIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 16N124W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM
IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 3N. POSITION IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AS THE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY MASKED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO HURRICANE ALEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N77W TO 08N82W TO 10N90W
THEN RESUMES AT 10N95W TO 08N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 86W TO 88W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE
E PAC WATERS TO NEAR 20N125W. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE
BEYOND 13N119W AND SW BEYOND 18N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W
ARE VERY DRY WITH ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 110W
WITH NE UPPER FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF
20N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE
REMNANT LOW OF CELIA IS MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT TO THE NW OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE AREA OF NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER
THE NE WATERS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD.

THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 105W IS AN AREA OF ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOSITURE BEING TRAINED INTO THE AREA OF HURRICANE ALEX.
HOWEVER...THE AREA IS COVERED MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LIGHTNING DATA DOES NOT INDICATED ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
EQUATOR OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NEW
BATCH OF SW SWELLS SHOULD REACH THE EQUATOR BY EARLY THU
BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT BY FRI.

$$
PAW

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Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Discussion Number 22

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Discussion Number 22 [ :///text=
/MIATCMAT1. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 21:39:52 -0500"

000 WTNT41 KNHC 010239 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/N=
ATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 OBSE=
RVATIONS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT =
HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ALEX CROSSED THE COAST IN A SPAR=
SELY-POPULATED AREA OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AROUND 0200 UTC. JUST BEFORE LAN=
DFALL...THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 87 KT FROM THE SFMR INSTRUME=
NT AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 947 MB.
ASSUMING THAT THE PEAK WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE=
CONTINUED DROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS SET AT 90 =
KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLIGHT D=
ECREASE SINCE LANDFALL. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS ALEX MOVES OVER L=
AND...AND THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER RAPID AFTER THE TROPICAL CYC=
LONE REACHES THE VERY HIGH AND RUGGED TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MA=
DRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. DISSIPATION IS
LIKELY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 260/=
9...JUST A TAD SOUTH OF DUE WEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ALEX IS=
PREDICTED TO BE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS =
WOULD MOVE THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS THE=
WINDS DECREASE AND THE SURGE AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST GRADUALLY DIMINISH.=
..THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ALEX WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINS TOTALING AS HIGH AS=
20 INCHES...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS =
OF MEXICO. ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE NORTHER=
N PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX. IT MAY BE OF INTEREST THAT ALEX WAS T=
HE FIRST CATEGORY TWO...AND THE STRONGEST...HURRICANE TO OCCUR IN JUNE SINC=
E ALMA OF 1966. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 24.3N 97.=
8W 85 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.3N 99.4W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0000Z 24.3N=
101.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.8N
103.8W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER P=
ASCH/BERG

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Atlantic Hur=
ricane ALEX Discussion Number 22
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 21:39:52 -0500

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 010239
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ALEX
CROSSED THE COAST IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AROUND 0200 UTC. JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...THE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 87 KT FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 947 MB. ASSUMING THAT THE PEAK WINDS
WERE NOT SAMPLED...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONTINUED DROP IN
CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS SET AT 90 KT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLIGHT
DECREASE SINCE LANDFALL. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS ALEX
MOVES OVER LAND...AND THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER RAPID
AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE VERY HIGH AND RUGGED TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
DISSIPATION IS LIKELY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 260/9...JUST A TAD SOUTH OF DUE WEST.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ALEX IS PREDICTED TO BE MORE OR
LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WOULD MOVE THE
CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

AS THE WINDS DECREASE AND THE SURGE AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ALEX WILL BE
TORRENTIAL RAINS TOTALING AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF MEXICO. ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX.

IT MAY BE OF INTEREST THAT ALEX WAS THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO...AND THE
STRONGEST...HURRICANE TO OCCUR IN JUNE SINCE ALMA OF 1966.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 24.3N 97.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.3N 99.4W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0000Z 24.3N 101.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.8N 103.8W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Advisory Number 22

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Advisory Number 22 [ :///text/M=
IATCPAT1. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 21:37:17 -0500"

000 WTNT31 KNHC 010237 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NW=
S TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 30 20=
10 ...ALEX MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT=
...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- L=
OCATION...24.3N 97.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI=
...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM=
/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10
MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES WATCHES AN=
D WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE=
WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUT=
H OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARN=
INGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF ME=
XICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING I=
N IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA =
CRUZ TO CABO ROJO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED=
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR P=
RODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR =
STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONI=
TOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND=
48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT
1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LAT=
ITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST INLAND OF THE=
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA. ALEX I=
S MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECT=
ED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX W=
ILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTA=
INED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRI=
CANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES =
OVER LAND...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAY=
S. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE C=
ENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335=
KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES=
SURE OF 947 MB...27.96 INCHES...JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ALEX IS=
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PO=
RTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AM=
OUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS A=
ND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...HURRICANE-FORC=
E WINDS ARE SPREADING INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA O=
VER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE
ON THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS =
BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO T=
HE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD PENETRATE I=
NLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASIN=
G AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMP=
ANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. THE STORM TIDE AND WAVES WILL GRADUAL=
LY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. TORNADOES...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT. =
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT C=
OMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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Atlantic Hur=
ricane ALEX Advisory Number 22
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 21:37:17 -0500

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 010237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT
OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY
OF SOTO LA MARINA. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 947 MB...27.96 INCHES...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING INLAND OVER A PORTION OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES. THE STORM TIDE AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
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=09=09
=09
=09

------=_Part_1813768_182539105.1277952065197--

------=_Part_1813767_489254324.1277952065197--

Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21B

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boundary="----=_Part_1813627_1875259991.1277946162632"

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21B [ ://www.nhc.n=
oaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 20:00:51 -0500"

000 WTNT31 KNHC 010100 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY=
NUMBER 21B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 800 PM CDT =
WED JUN 30 2010 ...ALEX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SU=
MMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------=
---------------- LOCATION...24.3N 97.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF LA PESCA=
MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND=
S...100 MPH...155 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR
270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99=
INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISOR=
Y... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING=
IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH =
OF THE RIO GRANDE * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO=
LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS =
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS C=
OAST WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS EVENING.=
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDI=
NG POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY=
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION=
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSU=
ED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM CD=
T...0100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AI=
RCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24=
.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...EAST OF THE COAS=
T OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 K=
M/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEA=
STERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ALEX WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM =
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GU=
STS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND =
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS =
LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DIS=
SIPATE OVER MEXICO WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND=
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND O=
UTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. L=
ATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AI=
RCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ------------------=
---- RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF=
6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...W=
ITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIAL=
LY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE =
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. STORM SUR=
GE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FE=
ET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE C=
ENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MI=
LES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING
AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPA=
NIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POS=
SIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ----=
--------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

________________________________________________________________________

This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20

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itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20

GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's National Weath=
er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
------=_Part_1813627_1875259991.1277946162632
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}

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Atlantic Hur=
ricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21B
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 20:00:51 -0500
=09

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 010100
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
800 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALEX
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL BE
MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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=09
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=09=09
=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
MD 20910
=09=09
=09
=09

------=_Part_1813627_1875259991.1277946162632--

------=_Part_1813626_485394071.1277946162632--

Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook [ :///gtwo_atl. =
]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 19:14:51 -0500"

000 ABNT20 KNHC 010014 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURR=
ICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...C=
ARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISS=
UING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES TO THE EAST OF T=
HE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TE=
XAS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT=
48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH=20

________________________________________________________________________

This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20

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itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20

GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's National Weath=
er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
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Atlantic Tropical =
Weather Outlook
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 19:14:51 -0500

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 010014
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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This service is provided by NOAA’s National Weather Service.=20

=20

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=09=09
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=09
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=09=09
=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
nal Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring,=
MD 20910
=09=09
=09
=09

------=_Part_1163254_878144209.1277943380075--

------=_Part_1163253_1846374537.1277943380075--

Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21A

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21A [ ://www.nhc.n=
oaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 17:57:56 -0500"

000 WTNT31 KNHC 302257 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY=
NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 600 PM CDT =
WED JUN 30 2010 ...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL I=
N NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFOR=
MATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 97.2=
W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROW=
NSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH...155 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR M=
INIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ------=
-------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND W=
ARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF=
TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * THE COAST OF ME=
XICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING I=
N IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO =
ROJO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INC=
LUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUE=
D BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMA=
TION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS =
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTL=
OOK ------------------------------ AT 600 PM
CDT...2300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE=
AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE=
24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19=
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTH=
EASTERN MEXICO IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NE=
AR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICAN=
E ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY =
AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AN=
D HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE C=
ENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335=
KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STAT=
ION IN MATAMOROS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...78 KM/HR AND AN UNOFF=
ICIAL WEATHER STATION ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE=
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCH=
ES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECT=
ED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS =
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS O=
F 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD =
SLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE
BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AF=
FECTING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS. WIND...HURRICANE=
-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING A=
REA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHORTLY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE =
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG =
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WA=
TER COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES
FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INL=
AND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIV=
E WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTRE=
ME SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE AD=
VISORY...800 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PA=
SCH/BERG

________________________________________________________________________

This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20

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itle=3DBookmark+and+Share ]=20

GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's National Weath=
er Service . 1325 East West Highway . Silver Spring, MD 20910
------=_Part_1813403_221331229.1277938935667
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

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=09color: gray;
=09font-size: 10px;
=09font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif;
=09font-weight: 100;
}

=09
=09

Atlantic Hur=
ricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 17:57:56 -0500
=09

=09
=09
=09
=09

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN A FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION
IN MATAMOROS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...78 KM/HR AND AN
UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHORTLY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion [ :///text=
/MIATWDEP. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 16:24:01 -0500"

000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302123 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL H=
URRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSI=
ON FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BA=
SED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ..=
.TROPICAL LOWS.... THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF CELIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB S=
URFACE LOW NEAR 16N124W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM IN TH=
E NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND IS FORECAST T=
O GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROP=
ICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 3N. POSITION IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AS THE SIG=
NATURE IS PARTIALLY MASKED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO HURRICANE ALEX I=
N THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITC=
Z AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N77W TO 09N87W THEN RESUMES AT 13N100W TO 1=
0N113W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWE=
EN 80W AND 88W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES OVER THE D=
ESERT SW INTO THE E PAC WATERS TO NEAR 14N130W. BEHIND THE TROUGH...AN UPPE=
R ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N131W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE BEYOND 13N=
121W AND SW BEYOND 17N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W ARE VERY DRY WITH AB=
UNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 110W WITH NE UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFAC=
E...STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF =
125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW OF CELIA IS =
MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE AREA OF NLY WINDS=
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE NE WATERS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD. THE AREA=
BETWEEN 90W AND 105W IS AN AREA OF ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOSITURE BEING TR=
AINED INTO THE AREA OF HURRICANE ALEX. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS COVERED MOSTLY=
CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT
LIGHTENING DATA DOES NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. =
LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE EQUATO=
R OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELLS S=
HOULD REACH THE EQUATOR BY EARLY THU BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT BY FRI. $$ PAW

________________________________________________________________________

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NHC East Paci=
fic Tropical Weather Discussion
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 16:24:01 -0500

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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS....

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF CELIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 16N124W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM
IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 3N. POSITION IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AS THE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY MASKED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO HURRICANE ALEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N77W TO 09N87W THEN
RESUMES AT 13N100W TO 10N113W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO
10N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE E
PAC WATERS TO NEAR 14N130W. BEHIND THE TROUGH...AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N131W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE
BEYOND 13N121W AND SW BEYOND 17N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W
ARE VERY DRY WITH ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 110W
WITH NE UPPER FLOW.

THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 105W IS AN AREA OF ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOSITURE BEING TRAINED INTO THE AREA OF HURRICANE ALEX.
HOWEVER...THE AREA IS COVERED MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LIGHTENING DATA DOES NOT INDICATED ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE EQUATOR OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NEW
BATCH OF SW SWELLS SHOULD REACH THE EQUATOR BY EARLY THU
BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT BY FRI.

$$
PAW

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=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
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------=_Part_1813155_332379365.1277933163781--

------=_Part_1813154_395861053.1277933163781--

Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Advisory Number 21

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Advisory Number 21 [ :///text/M=
IATCPAT1. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 15:36:21 -0500"

000 WTNT31 KNHC 302036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NW=
S TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 201=
0 ...ALEX HEADING TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH 90 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 4=
00 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------=
------ LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AB=
OUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 M=
PH...150 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES
AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATC=
HES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. S=
UMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFEC=
T FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO G=
RANDE * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A T=
ROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN =
BAY TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF
LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UN=
ITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONIT=
OR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. =
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE =
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION=
AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UT=
C...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM BROWNSVILL=
E NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. ALEX HAS INCREASED ITS FO=
RWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENE=
RAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO=
NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...=
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON H=
URRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING=
IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLON=
E AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM T=
HE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES..=
.335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED =
STATION IN MATAMOROS JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...103 KM/HR. LATES=
T MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING=
LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL R=
AINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXIC=
O AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RA=
INS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY =
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBA=
NDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPE=
CTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER.=
..TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST. STORM S=
URGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 =
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE=
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL =
MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY
DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL=
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNAD=
OES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. NEXT ADVI=
SORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT=
. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

________________________________________________________________________

This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20

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Atlantic Hur=
ricane ALEX Advisory Number 21
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 15:36:21 -0500

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 302036
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX HEADING TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH 90 MPH WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. ALEX
HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION IN
MATAMOROS JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...103 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
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Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Discussion Number 21

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Discussion Number 21 [ :///text=
/MIATCMAT1. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 15:36:55 -0500"

000 WTNT41 KNHC 302036 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/N=
ATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 AFTER=
A FEW HOURS OF A TRACK BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY=
...AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS TURNED BACK =
TO THE WEST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE RIDGE THAT WAS ANTIC=
IPATED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS MATERIALIZED AND IS NOW FORCING =
ALEX TO TAKE A LEFT TURN DIRECTLY TOWARD THE COAST
OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS =
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MEXIC=
O. ALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND BOTH HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WI=
NDS EXTEND A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE =
NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING...WILL BRING H=
URRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD RATH=
ER KEEP THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF
THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE=
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX IS BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE WIND=
S HAVE INCREASED. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 96 KNO=
TS AND SFMR REPORTED 81 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION..=
.THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND IS SURROUNDED BY A CIRCU=
LAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HA=
S BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LAND=
FALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 24.5N 96.8W 80 KT 1=
2HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 100.0W 30=
KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR =
VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Atlantic Hur=
ricane ALEX Discussion Number 21
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 15:36:55 -0500

=09

=09
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 302036
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

AFTER A FEW HOURS OF A TRACK BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
EARLIER TODAY...AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT
ALEX HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF ABOUT 11
KNOTS. THE RIDGE THAT WAS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE HAS MATERIALIZED AND IS NOW FORCING ALEX TO TAKE A LEFT
TURN DIRECTLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST AND ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MEXICO.

ALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND BOTH HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS COAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP THE HURRICANE
WARNINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ALEX IS BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE
WINDS HAVE INCREASED. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR
ARE 96 KNOTS AND SFMR REPORTED 81 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT ON VISIBLE IMAGES
AND IS SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 24.5N 96.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

30Jun/100

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 20A

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 20A [ ://www.nhc.n=
oaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1. ]"Wed, 30 Jun 2010 12:50:17 -0500"

000 WTNT31 KNHC 301750 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY=
NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 100 PM CDT =
WED JUN 30 2010 ...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE N=
ORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC=
...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24=
.4N 96.2W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 K=
M SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.=
..18 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WAR=
NINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF W=
ATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * =
THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * THE=
COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STO=
RM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CR=
UZ TO CABO ROJO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED S=
TATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRO=
DUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ST=
ORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITO=
R PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 4=
8-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT
100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED BY A RECO=
NNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR=
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST. ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE=
NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12 MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOU=
RS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST =
LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN=
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED =
TO NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURR=
ICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO B=
ECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOUL=
D BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND=
THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE=
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.=
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX =
DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTL=
Y REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUR=
E REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFF=
ECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE T=
OTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM=
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD=
S AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPP=
LER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE SOUTH=
ERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE E=
XPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEV=
ER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WA=
TER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE=
COAST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD PEN=
ETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY D=
ECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST... THE SURGE WILL BE AC=
COMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES AR=
E POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...40=
0 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

________________________________________________________________________

This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.=20

Bookmark and Share [ ://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=3Dgovdelivery&=
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Atlantic Hur=
ricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 12:50:17 -0500
=09

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 301750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.
ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12
MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE
BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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=09=09=09GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending on behalf of NOAA's Natio=
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MD 20910
=09=09
=09
=09

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Filed under: 2009 Advisories No Comments

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Discussion Number 22

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Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21B

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Intermediate Advisory Number 21A

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Advisory Number 21

Atlantic Hurricane ALEX Discussion Number 21

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