NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010308
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 01 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE CENTERED AT 11.3N 102.3 AT 01/0300 MOVING
W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM SW AND 30 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE. DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND CENTER OF EUGENE UNDER DIVERGENT FLOW WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND SHEAR AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED OVER
REGION. MID-LEVEL RIDGE STEERS EUGENE W-NW OVER NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER WARM E PAC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE LATE
TUE BEFORE ENTERING AREA WITH ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...
COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR MASS SAPPING ITS STRENGTH.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 111N86W TO 14N97W TO 13N100W
THEN CONTINUES FROM 10N104W TO 09N107W TO 12N116W TO 1008 MB LOW
PRES AT 11N120W TO 10N124W TO SECOND LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 11N131W
THEN TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N121W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W.
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC
FROM 32N131W TO 23N140W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED
BELOW. LARGE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 21N123W COMBINES WITH TROUGH
TO KEEP A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION N OF MONSOON TROUGH AND
W OF 116W. ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO ESTABLISH
OVER EUGENE BRINGS UNUSUAL LARGE AREA OF NE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS E
PAC S OF 10N AND A VERY MOIST MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW E OF 110W N
OF 10N.
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N124W TO 25N135W WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
E AND DISSIPATES MON. BROAD AND WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1030
MB FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF TROUGH ESTABLISHES A MODERATE NE BREEZE
FROM 10N-15N W OF 135W WHICH BECOME FRESH NE BREEZE LATE MON AND
TUE.
INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL
STORM EUGENE IN THE E PAC PROMPTING N FLOW ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS INCREASE A STRONG BREEZE BUT
ARE SHORT-LIVED AS EUGENE DRIFT W AWAY FROM AREA.
APPROACHING ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 90W-91W
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAUGHT IN MONSOON FLOW MON AND DISSIPATE.
$$
WALLY BARNES
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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm EUGENE Advisory Number 4
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WTPZ35 KNHC 010230
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
...EUGENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 102.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST. EUGENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND EUGENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
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ABNT20 KNHC 312335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 312202
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 31 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE CENTERED AT 11.0N 101.1W AT 31/2100 MOVING
W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 GUSTS TO 50 KT. DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
CENTER OF EUGENE IS UNDER WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW BUT WITH LITTLE
OR NO WIND SHEAR AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED
OVER REGION. MID-LEVEL RIDGE STEERS EUGENE W-NW OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER WARM E PAC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND COULD EVEN REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
LATE TUE BEFORE ENTERING AREA WITH ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR MASS SAPPING
ITS STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 13N95W THEN CONTINUES
TO 11N105W TO 12N115W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 10N124W TO 11N124W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 135W.
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC
FROM 32N132W TO 13N140W. LARGE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE COMBINES WITH
TROUGH TO KEEP A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION N OF MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 115W. ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO
ESTABLISH OVER EUGENE BRINGS UNUSUAL LARGE AREA OF NE WINDS
ALOFT ACROSS E PAC S OF 10N AND A VERY MOIST MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW E OF 110W N OF 10N.
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N125W TO 28N130W WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
E AND DISSIPATES MON. BROAD AND WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1030
MB FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF TROUGH ESTABLISHES A MODERATE NE BREEZE
FROM 10N-15N W OF 135W WHICH BECOME A FRESH NE BREEZE LATE MON
AND TUE.
INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL
STORM EUGENE IN THE E PAC PROMPTING N FLOW ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS INCREASE A STRONG BREEZE BUT
ARE SHORT-LIVED AS EUGENE DRIFT W AWAY FROM AREA.
APPROACHING ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W EXPECTED TO BECOME
CAUGHT IN MONSOON FLOW MON AND DISSIPATE.
$$
WALLY BARNES
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Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
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ABNT20 KNHC 312053
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm EUGENE Advisory Number 3
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WTPZ35 KNHC 312032
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
...EUGENE SLOWLY GATHERING STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 101.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST. EUGENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EUGENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE
TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
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ABNT20 KNHC 311735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 311601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 31 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE...THE FIFTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2011
SEASON...WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 100.5W AT 31/1500 MOVING WNW OR
285 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE CENTER OF EUGENE
WHICH LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN E-NE WINDS OVER
AND N OF THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS JUST TO ITS S. THE UPPER FLOW IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE TO ITS N
WILL STEER THE SYSTEM W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EUGENE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE
TUE. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N91W TO 11N97W THEN
CONTINUES FROM 10N105W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N118W TO
10N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 135W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 92W.
...DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG 130W HAS
WEAKENED THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS DISPLACED NW OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION TO NEAR 38N154W AND THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES FROM 32N126W TO
26N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH OVER NW WATERS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE TROUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH NE
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENED BY
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MIGRATE SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND FRESH TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO FAR W WATERS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT.
TO THE S OF THIS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN LIES A STRING
OF ANTICYCLONES NEAR 13N142W...23N120W...AND NE OF THE AREA OVER
THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING BETWEEN THE EASTERN TWO
ANTICYCLONE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW THAT IS ENHANCING
THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 19N TO 22N AND SCATTERED
MODERATE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N. THE
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N120W WILL BECOME ENGULFED IN THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER HIGH
LATER TODAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT N THROUGH WESTERN
MEXICO.
GAP WINDS...WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL
STORM EUGENE AND HIGHER PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MUCH
EARLIER 0408 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN APPROACHING ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
87W WILL ALLOW NE WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAUGHT IN THE MONSOON FLOW MON AND DISSIPATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS AS EUGENE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
$$
COBB
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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm EUGENE Advisory Number 2
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WTPZ35 KNHC 311436
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 100.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST. EUGENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
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ABNT20 KNHC 311142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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