NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 140228
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 14 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N92W TO 20N108W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 17N120W TO 10N130W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 05N E OF 95W.
...DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 100W CONVERGING INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS INLAND NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS
OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THESE
COUNTRIES AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF PANAMA. PATCHES OF MODERATE
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ARE MORE CONCENTRATED
N OF 5N E OF 90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS RAINFALL MAY CREATE LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES IN THE LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONSOON TROUGH.
NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8
WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW.
THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS STILL NOTED ON SATELLITE PICTURES
NEAR 17N120W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN
15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
$$
GR
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