Hurricane Advisories Hurricane advisories

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 04N105W WHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES
W TO BEYOND 04N140W. VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE INTERMITTENTLY FLARING FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W
AND WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N94W TO
09N99W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 150 NM O 09N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM 06N139W. BROKEN
TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED S OF 08N E OF 85W
AND S OF 08N BETWEEN 98W AND 108W...AND FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN
130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER W TEXAS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO NEAR 22N105W WITH THE TROUGH
CONTINUING W ALONG 18N120W TO 18N130W AND INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE
AT 14N138W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N128W WITH
ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS N OF
22N W OF 118W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE AREA N OF
24N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W...OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY
NW OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER ANTICYLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N101W WITH A
RIDGE W TO A CREST NEAR 13N132W. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED...UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE S INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM OF
A LINE FROM 04N140W TO 11N126W...AND THEN CONCENTRATES INTO
NARROW 60 NM WIDE PLUME CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST
AT 19N...TO OVER THE E TEXAS COAST AND THEN FANNING OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE
DEEP TROPICS AT 05N85W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS
OF TROPICAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 90W AND 104W IS SPREADING NE AND
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 32N130W AND SHIFTING NE
WITH TIME. NE TRADES AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED S OF THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE FROM 06N TO 28N TO THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS 8
TO 12 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE SWELL.
NW TO N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 122W AND 111W WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
PRIMARILY IN THE LONG PERIOD N SWELL. MIXED N SWELL IS
MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE DEEP
TROPICS AT 02N140W. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NE OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL EXPAND
FURTHER N THROUGH THU NIGHT. NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SE MIXING
WITH N AND NE SWELLS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 15N W
OF 110W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 15N TO THE W OF 110W...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WED. A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW PORTION LATE TONIGHT AND THU
DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 14 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20
KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS
WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT AROUND
SUNSET THU AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU NIGHT
WITH GALE CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE
SAT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO A GALE AROUND SUNRISE ON SUN.

$$
NELSON