NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010329
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 01 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 103W AND 117W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.
...DISCUSSION...
THE 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N146W
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N110W. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT LIES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
A 29/1632 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED BY THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEAR 35N121W SW TO NEAR 31N135W AND IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN MARINE
IMPACTS ON THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THURSDAY. FRESH NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPAND WESTWARD TO 125W BY LATE FRIDAY. 16-18
SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER INTO NE WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL...RAISING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF
9 TO 13 FT BY FRIDAY.
S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 116W AS SEEN BY THE 29/1814 UTC ASCAT
PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF
THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 16N136W. A 60-90
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA FROM 09N TO 26N BETWEEN 107W AND 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N130W TO 19N122W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
MAXIMIZED. ELSEWHERE...THE MOISTURE IS MANIFESTED AS BANDS OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 08N95W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N109W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE LIES NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS BEING LIFTED BY DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT THUS RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LATEST PULSE OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 27N EXTENDING S TO 22N E OF 110W. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ENTERS THE
NORTHERN BAJA AND MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA LATER ON FRIDAY. THESE
NW WINDS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WATERS BY 03/000O UTC.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HOWEVER THE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN AREA
OF ENHANCED NE TO E WINDS EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO ROUGHLY
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W TO 110W. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY
SHRINK THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
GULF OF PANAMA... NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.
$$
HUFFMAN
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AXPZ20 KNHC 292205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 29 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N96W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 109W TO 01N117W TO 01N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 100W AND
106W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE 1033 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N148W
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LIES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO. A 29/1632 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED BY
THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A NEW COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MONTEREY BAY CALIFORNIA SW TO
NEAR 33N138W AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING
PASSING THROUGH NE WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRESH NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE
TO STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. 16-18
SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PASS INTO NE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL...RAISING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 9
TO 14 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY.
S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 117W AS SEEN BY THE 29/1814 UTC ASCAT
PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF
THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 15N135W. A 60-90
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 110W AND 131W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 10N130W TO 20N116W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
MAXIMIZED. ELSEWHERE...THE MOISTURE IS MANIFESTED AS BANDS OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 08N96W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N106W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE LIES BENEATH THE ITCZ AXIS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS
AREA IS BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THUS RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE
ITCZ DESCRIBED ABOVE.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
S OF 27N EXTENDING S TO 22N E OF 110W. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS
WILL BE TEMPORARILY LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ENTERS THE NORTHERN
BAJA AND MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA LATER ON FRIDAY.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM
PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS FAR W AS 110W.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK IN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GULF OF PANAMA... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20
KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THIS EVENING. FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY.
$$
HUFFMAN
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AXPZ20 KNHC 291602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 29 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N100W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W TO 01N130W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE 1032 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N150W
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LIES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER N
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 0406 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED BY
THIS PRES GRADIENT.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND
PASS THROUGH NE WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRESH NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE W
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. 16-18
SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PASS INTO NE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL...RAISING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT TO
10-14 FT BY EARLY FRI.
S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W AS SEEN BY THE 0544 UTC ASCAT PASS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THESE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.
THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 15N140W. A 60-90
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NEAR 10N130W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W NEAR THE REAR
RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. ELSEWHERE...THIS MOISTURE IS
MANIFESTED AS BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 07N95W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N105W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE LIES UNDER ITCZ. MOISTURE CONVERGED IN THIS AREA IS
BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ENHANCING THE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ DESCRIBED IN THE
SECTION ABOVE.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
S OF 28N EXTENDING S TO 19N E OF 110W. BY EARLY FRI
MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LESS WILL BE TEMPORARILY LESS THAN 20
KT IN THE GULF BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER
ON FRI.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20
KT WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL TURN OFF THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM
PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS FAR W AS 105W.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK IN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GULF OF PANAMA... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20
KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THIS EVENING. FRESH N WINDS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD FRI.
$$
FORMOSA
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AXPZ20 KNHC 290914
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 29 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 108W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 01S125W THEN
NORTH TO 01N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 108W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE 1033 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N150W
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LIES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER N
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 0406 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED BY
THIS PRES GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST TO 18N BY THU
MORNING AND DIMINISH TO FRESH BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND
PASS THROUGH NE WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRESH NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE W
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. 16-18
SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PASS INTO NE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL...RAISING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT TO
10-14 FT BY EARLY FRI.
S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W AS SEEN BY THE 0544 UTC ASCAT PASS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THESE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.
THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 15N140W. A 60-90
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NEAR 10N130W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W NEAR THE REAR
RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. ELSEWHERE...THIS MOISTURE IS
MANIFESTED AS BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 07N95W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N105W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE LIES UNDER ITCZ. MOISTURE CONVERGED IN THIS AREA IS
BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ENHANCING THE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ DESCRIBED IN THE
SECTION ABOVE.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ALONG THE W COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO 18N AND DIMINISH
TO 20 KT THROUGH THU MORNING. BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WINDS LESS
WILL TEMPORARILY BE LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER ON FRI.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20
KT WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL TURN OFF THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD FRI MORNING. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING
DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS
FAR W AS 107W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP BATFR53 AND THE
0402 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK IN AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GULF OF PANAMA...THE 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS FAILED TO SHOW WINDS TO
20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORCED
SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH N WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY FRI MORNING.
$$
SCHAUER
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AXPZ20 KNHC 290330
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 29 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 108W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 122W TO 03N128W TO
01N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.
...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 30N135W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N108W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 26N109W TO 24N110W AND EXTENDS INTO PACIFIC
WATERS TO 21N117W. 20 KT NW FLOW LIES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT AS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
AROUND 28/1654 UTC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
OVER WESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A LINGERING ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REMAINING TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 118W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N121W TO 17N136W. A 60-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
JET IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR 12N131W
THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY AS MULTILAYERED
BANDS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS NEAR 07N95W AND IS MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT N OF 06N E OF 105W. HOWEVER...SOUTH
OF 06N...MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS NEAR 27N/28N AND A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER INLAND WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AREA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WERE FEEDING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS
HAVE VEERED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING FLOW THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND SUBSEQUENT DRAINAGE INTO THE GULF TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS GENERATING STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BEYOND TO THE
WEST THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO
IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS FAR W AS 107W BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP BATFR53 AND A RECENT 28/1658 UTC ASCAT
PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
GULF OF PANAMA...AN EARLIER AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS INDICATED LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE NORTH
WIND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
LESS THAN 8 FT.
$$
HUFFMAN
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AXPZ20 KNHC 282153
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 28 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 95W TO 120W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 31N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 18N110W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 31N109W TO 27N112W AND EXTENDS INTO PACIFIC
WATERS TO 22N120W. 20 KT NW FLOW LIES OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT ACCORDING TO AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
AROUND 28/1654 UTC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A LINGERING ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REMAINING TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 118W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N121W TO 18N138W. A 60-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
JET IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR 12N126W
THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY AS MULTILAYERED
BANDS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS NEAR 06N96W AND IS MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT N OF 06N E OF 105W. HOWEVER...SOUTH
OF 06N...MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS NEAR 27N AND A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER INLAND WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WINDS THAT FEED THROUGH THE ISTHMUS
VEER IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY...FLOW
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND SUBSEQUENT DRAINAGE INTO THE GULF
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS GENERATING STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BEYOND TO THE
WEST THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO
IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS FAR W AS 105W BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP BATFR53 AND A RECENT 28/1658 UTC ASCAT
PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
GULF OF PANAMA...AN EARLIER AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS INDICATED LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE NORTH
WIND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
LESS THAN 8 FT.
$$
HUFFMAN
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AXPZ20 KNHC 281517
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 28 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ 03N90W TO 01N108W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N126W TO 20N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS
FROM 20N-30N W OF 115W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 5N97W N ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 94W-99W. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM IS FROM
22N120W NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA WHERE THE WINDS
INCREASE TO 115-125 KT. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
300 NM SE OF THE JET. TRANSVERSE BANDING IS INDICATED ON THE
CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATING POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 23N30W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N136W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 20N W OF 110W.
TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 7N-24N W OF 120W WITH SEAS TO
11 FT. ALSO LARGE NW SWELLS 9-12 FT ARE N OF 24N W OF 120W.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE NLY WINDS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY THU.
ELY WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NLY WIND 20
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
DGS
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280919
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 28 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THERE IS NEITHER AN ITCZ NOR A MONSOON TROUGH OF NOTE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
...DISCUSSION...
THE 1032 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N148W
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N115W. A COLD FRONT CUTS
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 31N113W TO 29N114W AND
EXTENDS INTO PACIFIC WATERS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO 25N120W.
FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW LIES OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BEHIND THE FRONT ACCORDING TO THE 0428 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND THE
TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD EARLY THU MORNING.
S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
AREA W OF 120W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR
POSITION OF THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 20N140W. A 60-80
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NEAR 05N125W THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS MANIFESTED AS BAND
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LIES FROM 11N91W TO 00N100W. AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE LIES UNDER THE RIDGE ACCORDING TO THE
0420 UTC ASCAT PASS. MOISTURE CONVERGED IN THIS AREA IS BEING
LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE WINDSAT PASS AT 0106 UTC CAPTURED NEAR
GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT NOW LIES FROM 31N113W TO 29N114W
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND N OF
27N. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES INTO MAINLAND MEXICO...THE
TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. N TO
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH S OF 28N IN THE GULF AND TO AS
FAR S AS 19N ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BY EARLY WED
MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE
FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM THROUGH WED MORNING. BY WED EVENING...WINDS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL TURN OFF THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD THU MORNING. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING
DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS
FAR W AS 105W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP BATFR53 AND THE
0422 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CROSSING
THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.
$$
SCHAUER
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280307
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 28 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N130W TO 03N140W...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS.
...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM YUMA AZ TO 30N117W TO 25N125W. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIF
TUE MORNING. ASCAT PASS AT 1900 UTC SHOWED VERY STRONG N-NW WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WINDS WILL
SPREAD LARGE N SWELL INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT
AND TUE.
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AT LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MODEST DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SMALL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 95W AND NIGHTTIME CONVECTION ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT PASS AT 1536 UTC ALONG WITH EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE GAP WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 TO 25
KT. GUIDANCE INDICATES 20 TO 25 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH WED MORNING.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND
FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST AS
FAR W AS 95W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS. THESE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNRISE TUE...PRES GRADIENT
WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH S OF 28N IN THE GULF AS FAR S AS 19N ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY WED MORNING.
GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CROSSING
THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH 20-25 KT N WINDS PULSING IN THE GULF THROUGH WED.
$$
MUNDELL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 272132
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 27 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 00N122W TO 04N133W TO 04N140W...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS.
...DISCUSSION...
AN VIGOROUS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING PAST SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO 25N140W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOS
ANGELES TO 30N121W TO 27N127W TO 30N137W. THE WILL PUSH FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA TO 22N125W...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY TUE. ASCAT PASS AT 1900 UTC SHOWED VERY
STRONG N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD LARGE N SWELL INTO NE PORTION OF
DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AT LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MODEST CONVECTION ALONG
10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS S OF
10N E OF 95W...TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA.
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT PASS AT 1536 UTC ALONG WITH EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE GAP WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 KT.
GUIDANCE INDICATES 20 TO 25 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH WED MORNING.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND
FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST AS
FAR W AS 95W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS. THESE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING PAST SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY
SUNRISE TUE...PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH S OF 28N IN THE GULF AS
FAR S AS 19N ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY WED MORNING.
GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CROSSING
THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH 20-25 KT N WINDS PULSING IN THE GULF THROUGH WED.
$$
MUNDELL
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