Hurricane Advisories Hurricane advisories

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150457
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 08N131W...THEN ITCZ
AXIS THROUGH 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 82W
TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE N OF 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W
AND 90W...AND N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND
105W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL SW FLOW
OVER N PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. AN EARLIER 1552 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED AN AREA OF WESTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE COAST OF
PANAMA AND A SEPARATE AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS
STARTING TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THE WESTERLY WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF PANAMA AND THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
SLOWLY ORGANIZES JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT
THEN MOVES THE LOW W ON SUN. THE NOGAPS MODEL BY CONTRAST SHOWS
A MORE MODEST 20 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A
LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT.

FURTHER EAST...THE GFS REMAINS THE AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN
DEPICTING SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FUNNELING INTO THE COAST
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH THE GFS DRIVEN WAVE WATCH MODEL
BUILDING SEAS TO 12-14 FT. WAVE WATCH IS TOO HIGH THUS WILL
FORECAST TO BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT WITH THE
INCREASED S AND SW FLOW. THESE WINDS FEED INTO ANOTHER BROAD
LOW ORGANIZING OVER PANAMA BY LATE SAT INTO SUN. GIVEN THE
COMPLEX FLOW AND THE AS YET DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREAS THE HIGH
SEAS IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND CONSISTS OF A BLEND
OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS FOR THE LOW S OF THE TEHUANTEPEC.

MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PERSIST ALONG MONSOON TROUGH JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COASTLINE IN ADDITION THE CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED
SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE OPEN
PACIFIC FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES INTO
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS CONTAINED IN THE
GRAPHICAST AT ://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE
WINDS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT.

$$
COBB

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 08N131W...THEN ITCZ
AXIS THROUGH 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 11N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 83W AND 93W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC
WATERS E OF 105W. A 1552 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF
WESTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND A
SEPARATE AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W
AND 103W...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO
INCREASE AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THE WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
PANAMA AND THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA.

HOWEVER...THE MODELS REMAIN MORE DIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE GFS THE AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING SW TO W WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...FEEDING INTO BROAD LOW
PRES SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES OFF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY
LATE SAT. THE GFS/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF PLACE A
LOW IN THE REGION S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT.
THE NOGAPS BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20 KT SURGE OF SW TO
W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. GIVEN THE COMPLEX FLOW AND THE
AS YET DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREA THE HIGH SEAS IS A FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS. THE MODELS DO SHOW MORE DEFINITIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PERSIST ALONG MONSOON TROUGH JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COASTLINE...AIDED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW.
CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. AN ALTIMETER
PASS FROM 08Z SHOWED SEAS OF GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT W OF
105W...INDICATING BOTH THE WWIII AND ECWAVE MODELS ARE
INITIALIZING A LITTLE TOO HIGH. SEAS WILL BUILD E OF 90W TO AS
HIGH AS 12 FT WITH THE INCREASED S AND SW FLOW.

W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS
REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT.

$$
COBB

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEHWERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 16N95W RESUMES
FROM 10N110W TO 09N120W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 85W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND
90W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC
WATERS E OF 105W. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT S OF
WESTERN PANAMA...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO
INCREASE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG 95W S OF 08N INDICATED ONLY 15
KT AT 12Z...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS JUST E OF THE AREA ARE SHOWING
WINDS TO 20 KT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS AND BOTH SLOW A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE MORE
DIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE GFS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHOWING SW TO W FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...FEEDING LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES OFF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE
SAT OR EARLY SUN. THE ECMWF BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20
TO 25 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER LOW IN THE SAME AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER. FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW MORE MODERATE ECMWF SOLUTION INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH
DRAPED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE...AIDED BY OVERNIGHT
DRAINAGE FLOW. CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS
AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
80W AND 90W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 08Z SHOWED SEAS OF GENERALLY
6 TO 7 FT W OF 105W...INDICATING BOTH THE WWIII AND ECWAVE
MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A LITTLE TOO HIGH. FRESH SOUTHERLY SWELL
IS STILL LIKELY FURTHER EAST...AS EVIDENCED BY A RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATION SHOWING 8 FT IN S SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES NEAR
06N92W. SEAS WILL BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT WITH THE
INCREASED S FLOW.

W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140906
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N88W TO 18N106W RESUMES
FROM 16N120W TO 09N131W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN MONSOONAL FLOW N OF 04N E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS W-SW MONSOON WIND FLOW STARTING
TO INCREASE IN THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 100W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT
0315 UTC INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS ARE 20-25 KT NEAR 05N82W. THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE FINER
DETAILS REGARDING LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DISTINCT LOW
PRES SYSTEMS WITHIN THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 35-40 KT
S OF PANAMA AND SEAS TO 18 FT IN THE 24-48 HR TIME FRAME. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS SIMILAR IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE AREA OF HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS...BUT ABOUT 10 KT LOWER WITH SEAS TO 11-12 FT. SO
GOING WITH A COMPOSITE APPROACH UNTIL WE GET BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE MODEL FORECASTS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THIS
AREA. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140458
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MEXICO WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N92W TO 20N108W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 17N120W TO 10N130W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 05N E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 100W CONVERGING INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS INLAND NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS
OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THESE
COUNTRIES AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF PANAMA. PATCHES OF MODERATE
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ARE MORE CONCENTRATED
N OF 5N E OF 90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS RAINFALL MAY CREATE LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES IN THE LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONSOON TROUGH.

NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8
WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW.

THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS STILL NOTED ON SATELLITE PICTURES
NEAR 17N120W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN
15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
GR