…IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD…

AT 7 AM EST…1200 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE…AND FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 AM EST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES…360 KM…SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280
MILES…460 KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS…WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

…SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE/BRENNAN

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FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA…LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS…WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND
45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07…A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE
THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IDA
AND THE TROUGH DIFFER…MOST OF THE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NOGAPS AND GFDN…SHOW IDA TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL DURING THIS TIME AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY DAY 5
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT…AND WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA…
TURNING SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW OFFICIAL THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING…AS
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
FURTHER AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE GIVEN
THE OBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS…AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 50 KT IN 36
HOURS. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON DAY 2 AS IDA ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BEGINS TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
IDA.

THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.1N 84.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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…IDA STRENGTHENING…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA…

AT 4 AM EST…0900 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 AM EST…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 AM EST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES…215 KM…NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 300 MILES…
480 KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS…WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

…SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.1N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF IDA WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND
WAS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE CENTER…AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 KT AND 30 KT…RESPECTIVELY.
NOAA BUOY 42057…LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER…RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 KT…BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL AND MAY
NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE…IDA
IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY…BUT IT IS
PROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 360/6. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER MEXICO
ARE EXPECTED TO STEER IDA NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 72
HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS AND
HAVE FORCED THE MODEL CONSENSUS A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST. THE
FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS IS STILL COMPLEX AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
IDA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IDA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY
96 HOURS ONCE IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT…BUT THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON
WHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT. ONLY THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW
IDA BECOMING PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A
MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HOURS…AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT 120 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO…A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT…WHICH IS
JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.2N 84.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.1N 84.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 18.4N 84.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 19.7N 85.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.4N 86.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 25.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 87.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.6W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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…IDA MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM HONDURAS…COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOON…

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 PM EST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES…175 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK…IDA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…
AND IDA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS…WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

…SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.2N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

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THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA DURING THE DAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOW A RATHER ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM…WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. NOW THAT IDA IS
OFFSHORE OVER VERY WARM WATERS…THE SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO RE-
INTENSIFY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…WHERE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO GET RATHER STRONG BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…WITH COOLER WATERS PRESENT…SO WEAKENING
WILL BE SHOWN AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE…THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
SPREAD THAN EARLIER. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID…AND REDUCES
THE INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IDA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH…360/7. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW DUE TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER IDA
ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG
RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH
THAT TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…THEN TURNING EASTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF EAST. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT IDA WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME…AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE QUITE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TRANSITION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT THE LONG RANGE…BUT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 15.7N 83.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 17.9N 84.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.1N 85.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.6N 86.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.5N 85.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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…IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN…

INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES…110 KM…NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT…WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…IDA SHOULD APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY.

…SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IDA…THOUGH SOMEWHAT REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42057 SHOWED PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 29
KT EARLIER THIS MORNING…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
30 KT. IDA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT AFTER IT EMERGES FROM EASTERN HONDURAS. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING…WHILE
THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS…AND EVEN
HIGHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO…THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY MUCH
CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF PERIOD…SOME
WEAKENING IS SHOWN DUE TO SHEAR BECOMING STRONG AND COOLER WATERS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH WILL LIKELY START THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA.

IDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH…360/6. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER… IDA SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS. IN THE LONG-RANGE…A TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD FORCE IDA TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER…THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS
CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS… RANGING FROM A FASTER
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE
TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN…CLIMATOLOGY
AND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST
THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY. THE NHC
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE…AND ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.0N 84.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 15.7N 84.1W 30 KT…OVER WATER
24HR VT 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.1N 85.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

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…IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS…

AT 10 AM EST…1500 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES… 85 KM…WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY…WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY…BUT SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IDEA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.

…SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…15.0N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

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National Hurricane Center
:// or ://hurricanes.gov
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