Hurricane Advisories

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Thu, 17 May 2012 03:09:14 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

05/16/2012 11:08 PM EDT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170307
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N 114.3W AT 17/0300
UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 8 KT. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N98W 1008
MB TO 12N108W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N118W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W
AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF ITCZ W
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 115W IS ANCHORED BY TS ALETTA NEAR
11.4N 113.5W AND A BROAD LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 11N98W. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N91W IS ENHANCING THE
DEEP CONVECTION E OF 115W. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
35N136W TO AROUND 22N115W IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW WINDS N OF 28N
W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH NLY SWELL MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-8
FT IN NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. NE TRADE WINDS W OF 115W
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 30N AND
NEAR-NORMAL PRESSURES WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL
INDUCE 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N98W IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH SUN. THIS DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG DEEPENING OF
THE LOW SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A SECOND SURGE OF N-NE WINDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GIVES ADDED VORTICITY TO THE PRE-EXISTING
CIRCULATION.

$$
MUNDELL

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 11

NHCGovDel — Thu, 17 May 2012 02:38:14 +0000

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 11

You are subscribed to NHC Public Advisories (East Pacific) for NOAA's =
National Weather Service.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 11=

05/16/2012 10:31 PM EDT

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

...ALETTA LIKELY TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 114.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
=

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST. ALETTA IS
=

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 21:41:26 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

05/16/2012 05:37 PM EDT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162136
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 16 2012

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 113.5W AT 16/2100
UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND
60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES.

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 115W IS ANCHORED BY TS ALETTA NEAR
11.4N 113.5W AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 11N98W.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N91W IS ENHANCING
THE DEEP CONVECTION E OF 115W. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM 35N136W TO AROUND 22N115W IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW WINDS N OF
28N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH NLY SWELL MAINTAINING SEAS OF
7-8 FT IN NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. NE TRADE WINDS W OF
115W ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT 10-15 KT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE N OF 30N AND NORMAL PRESSURE IN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL
INDUCE 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY
THROUGH EARLY FRI.

$$
MUNDELL

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 10

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 20:41:21 +0000

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 10

You are subscribed to NHC Public Advisories (East Pacific) for NOAA's =
National Weather Service.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 10=

05/16/2012 04:36 PM EDT

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 162035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

...ALETTA SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
=

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
=

GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:30:44 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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or NOAA's National Weather Service.

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

05/16/2012 11:27 AM EDT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 16 2012

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 112.6W AT 16/1500
UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 8 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
CENTER. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 9N97W 1008 MB TO
12N106W. ITCZ FROM 6N116W TO 3N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 95W-101W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 106W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 128W CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH PERSISTS BETWEEN 140W AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. S
AND SW WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 120W INCLUDING THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A RIDGE
DOMINATING THE WATERS E OF 110W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE TSTMS E OF 110W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE
N OF 15N W OF 115W. LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE PROVIDING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT THAT IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 KT NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA N OF 27N E OF 119W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 9N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL
INDUCE 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY
THROUGH EARLY FRI.

$$
DGS

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ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 9

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 14:40:06 +0000

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 9

You are subscribed to NHC Public Advisories (East Pacific) for NOAA's =
National Weather Service.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 9

05/16/2012 10:32 AM EDT

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

...ALETTA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 112.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
=

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
=

GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 09:31:14 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

05/16/2012 05:29 AM EDT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160928
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 16 2012

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 111.7W AT 16/0900
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N97W 1010 MB TO
13N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 09N111W TO 06N120W. ITCZ FROM
06N120W TO 03N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND
110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 128W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE N WATERS WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
PERSISTS BETWEEN 140W AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. S AND SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E
OF 120W INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WATERS E OF 110W.
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE
TSTMS E OF 110W.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1026 MB HIGH
PRES NEAR 35N135W TO AROUND 20N115W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE RESULTING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF FRESH NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N E
OF 118W. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THIS AREA. A WINDSAT PASS ALSO
INDICATED FRESH TRADE WINDS COVERING THE REGION FROM 09N TO 21N
W OF 130W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT.

THE EDGE OF AN 0408 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR
08N97W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS
ALSO NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT W-NW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 126W FROM
04N TO 08N. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
FORECAST TO DRIFT WWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL
INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI.

$$
GR

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=0A

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 8

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 08:36:26 +0000

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 8

You are subscribed to NHC Public Advisories (East Pacific) for NOAA's =
National Weather Service.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 8

05/16/2012 04:31 AM EDT

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

...ALETTA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
=

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST. ALETTA IS
=

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
=

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910

=0A

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 02:50:59 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

05/15/2012 10:49 PM EDT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160249
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 16 2012

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 110.9W AT 16/0300 UTC
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MOTION AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO START TO
WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE
STABLE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N98W TO 13N108W...
THEN RESUMES W OF TS ALETTA NEAR 08N110W TO TROUGH NEAR 06N125W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N127W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 108W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 05N126W.

...DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W DOMINATES THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO TS ALETTA CHURNING AWAY NEAR 111W A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 10N95W IS ACTING TO ANCHOR
AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE START TO THE 2012 EAST PAC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH OFFICIALLY BEGAN TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 11N91W IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ACTIVE TSTMS EAST OF 113W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N136W TO
AROUND 20N114W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 20N101W TO YUMA AZ. THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE OCEANIC RIDGE AND THE CONTINENTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF FRESH NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF
26N E OF 118W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TS ALETTA
IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 123W AND 129W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP N OF 27N E OF 120W BY EARLY FRI.

HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL
INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF TS ALETTA...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 7 FT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

$$
MUNDELL

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 7

NHCGovDel — Wed, 16 May 2012 02:36:47 +0000

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 7

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National Weather Service.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory Number 7

05/15/2012 10:31 PM EDT

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...ALETTA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 110.9W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
=

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910

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