Hurricane Advisories

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:23:39 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/06/2012 10:17 PM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070317
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 08N81W TO 04N88W TO 05N114W. ITCZ AXIS 05N114W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 969 MB LOW NW OF AREA NEAR
43N143W ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 30N128W THEN CONTINUES
SW BEYOND 20N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA N OF
29N W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 23N120W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM
07N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT
ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH FRESH TRADEWINDS TO COVER
THE AREA FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 125W TUE AND WED.

ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM CROSSING NW OF THE REGION WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CREATE ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY WED WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING NEAR 19 FT OVER
THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS RESULTING IN WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
CREATING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ON TUESDAY...WITH NEAR
GALE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL
THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

$$
AL

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:38:31 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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or NOAA's National Weather Service.

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/06/2012 04:34 PM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062134
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 06 2012

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 08N82W TO 03N89W TO 06N115W. ITCZ AXIS 06N115W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 967 MB LOW NW OF AREA NEAR
42N144W ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 30N131W THEN CONTINUES
SW BEYOND 23N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA N OF
29N W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 23N121W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT
ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EXTEND FRESH TRADEWINDS TO
COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 125W.

$$
AL

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:54:32 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/06/2012 10:51 AM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061551
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 06 2012

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 05N100W TO 06N110W. ITCZ AXIS 06N100W
TO 07N114W TO BEYOND 07N140W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND
110W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 965 MB LOW NW OF AREA NEAR
42N145W ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 30N135W THEN CONTINUES
SW BEYOND 25N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL NOTED ON
SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TODAY WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ENDING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS EXTENDING 30N123W TO 20N132W
EARLY TUE MORNING...AND FROM 30N116W TO 24N116W EARLY WED
MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.

THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REGION HAS WEAKENED THE TRADE WINDS NORMALLY FOUND NEAR 10N E OF
115-120W. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE
TRADES TO REDEVELOP BY WED.

ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES CROSSING NW OF THE REGION WILL BRING
FRESH TO STRONG SLY WINDS TO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA BY WED WITH SEAS OF 14-16 FT.

ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC COVERING MOST OF THE AREA W
OF 90W. PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS ARE NOTED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SWELL TRAIN WHICH IS IMPACTING THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. A NEW
SWELL TRAIN IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGIONAL WATERS BY EARLY
TUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. AN EARLIER
OSCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE GALE FORCE WINDS. PEAK
WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13
FT. 30 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN
WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EXPECT PERIODIC WINDS TO 20 KT IN THAT AREA.

$$
GR

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Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook

NHCGovDel — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:02:32 +0000

Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook

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Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook

02/06/2012 06:59 AM EST

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061158
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD
=

INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
=

THUNDERSTORMS...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT23 KNHC...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
=

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:54:08 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/06/2012 04:45 AM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 6 2012

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N83W TO 04N90W TO 05N101W
THEN...AS ITCZ AXIS TO 07N114W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 968 MB LOW NNE OF AREA NEAR
40N145W IS PUSHING INTO EXTREME NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA. SCAT
PASSES PAST 6-12 HOURS INDICATE 30-35 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ARE PRESENT IN NW PORTION. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE BOTH WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT IN S-SW DIRECTION AND
N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT IN W-NW DIRECTION...THROUGH MON EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS EXTENDING
FROM 30N126W TO 20N140W LATE MON AND FROM 30N116W TO 23N121W
LATE TUE THEN WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP SE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRES
IN NW PORTION HAS WEAKENED TRADE WINDS NORMALLY FOUND NEAR 10N E
OF 115-120W. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES W N OF 20N THROUGH TUE...ALLOWING TRADES TO REDEVELOP.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE
TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK
WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13
FT. 30 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
TUE...BUT MAY SURGE AGAIN TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE DUE TO
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS.

BY TUE...THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS WILL ARC TO THE W-SW TO 105W
FROM 10N TO 15N. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS WILL ACT
IN CONCERT WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W LATE MON AND TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN
WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EXPECT PERIODIC WINDS TO 20 KT IN THAT AREA.

$$
MUNDELL

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 03:32:23 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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or NOAA's National Weather Service.

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/05/2012 10:24 PM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060323
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 06 2012

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 05N99W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N99W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...GALE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD NORTH OF 20N. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
974 MB STORM CENTER LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA AT 40N144W TO
30N132W TO 24N140W. A FASTER MOVING REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND REACH FROM 30N130W TO
22N140W BY LATE MON. SHIPS WFLH AND WDC3786 REPORTED SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0000 UTC N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS OF GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/UKMET GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATES SOUTHERLY GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE
REINFORCING FRONT MERGES WITH THE EASTERNMOST FRONT OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH
MON...ALLOWING THE COMBINED FRONTS TO WEAKEN THROUGH TUE BEFORE
PUSHING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA WED. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTEROMETER
AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS IS
RELATIVELY LIMITED...BUT WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND INTENSITY
STARTING TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE MERGED
COLD FRONTS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
ALONG 120W FROM 10N TO 20N IS ENHANCING AREAS OF MODEST
CONVECTION ABOUT 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.
MEANWHILE...NW SWELL GENERATED FROM STORM CENTER FURTHER NORTH
WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF 120W BY LATE TUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS TO
35 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 10-13 FT. WINDS OF 30 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY TUE...BUT MAY SURGE AGAIN TO GALE
FORCE LATE TUE DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS.

BY TUE...THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND FLOW WILL ARC TO THE SW AND W
TO AS FAR AS 105W FROM 10N TO 15N. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
THESE WINDS WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND
105W LATE MON AND TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL FUNNEL AGAIN THROUGH THE GAP IN
TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON
MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THAT AREA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook

NHCGovDel — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 23:49:58 +0000

Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook

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Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook

02/05/2012 06:46 PM EST

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052346
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
=

TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
=

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
=

KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
=

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
=

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
=

BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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=0A

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 22:09:23 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/05/2012 05:05 PM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 05 2012

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 07N78W TO 05N80W TO 05N100W. ITCZ AXIS FROM
05N100W TO 05N110W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEPENING 983 MB LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 36N142W
IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN FAR NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION
AREA PARTICULARLY N OF 26N W OF 136W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM
AROUND 16 UTC SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N.
AN 18 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 26N AROUND 180
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND NOTING
THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY STILL BE SW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N W
OF 130W. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIFT N
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. AS WITH THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING
FRONT TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE TOMORROW THE
ACCOMPANYING 986 MB LOW PRES AREA PROGRESSES TO THE NE OF THE
AREA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF 20N THROUGH TUE...FOLLOWED BY W TO NW FLOW TO NEAR GALE
FORCE. NW SWELL WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA...COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W N OF 05N THROUGH
TUE. FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 125W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 15:44:50 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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or NOAA's National Weather Service.

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/05/2012 10:41 AM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051541
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 05 2012

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 07N78W TO 06N98W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N98W TO
06N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEPENING 989 MB LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 33N143W
IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN FAR NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION
AREA PARTICULARLY N OF 26N W OF 136W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FEW
SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA
TODAY AND MOVE N OF THE FORECAST WATERS AROUND 0000 UTC AS THE
LOW PRES CENTER MOVES TO THE N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN A LARGE SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO
PEAK NEAR 18 FT LATE TODAY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN START TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE. THE
FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W AT AROUND
06/1200 UTC AND FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W AT 07/0000 UTC THEN WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVES E
ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA LATE TUE
INTO WED.

TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS. EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20 KT COVERING THE AREA
FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 130W WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

GAP WINDS...

N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS TO 35 KT
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10-13 FT. WINDS OF 30 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH EARLY TUE. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A WEAK ROPE
CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH LIKELY
DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT.

FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL
FUNNEL AGAIN THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THAT AREA.

$$
GR

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NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

NHCGovDel — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 09:54:42 +0000

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

02/05/2012 04:51 AM EST

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 05N97W...THEN AS ITCZ AXIS
TO 04N104W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEPENING 991 MB LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 32N143W
IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN FAR NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION
AREA. VERY GOOD COMBINED COVERAGE FROM ASCAT WINDSAT AND OSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES DURING PAST 6-12 HOURS WAS USED TO PINPOINT
AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF GALES WILL
WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES CENTER SKIRTS
PAST NW PART OF FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER
IN A LARGE SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK
NEAR 18 FT DURING THE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN START
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE.

GAP WINDS...

FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL

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