TD IDA Public Advisory 27
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 101433
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
…IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL…ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED…
AT 900 AM CST…1500 UTC…ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF IDA MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 700 AM CST…1300
UTC…JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BON SECOUR ALABAMA.
AT 900 AM CST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES… 50
KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 25 MILES… 40
KM…WEST-NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND ITS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
…SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…30.6N 87.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON IDA CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER…UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH…BEGINNING AT 300 PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Nov0
000
ABNT20 KNHC 101154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA…LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
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TS IDA Public Advisory 26A
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 101154
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
…IDA OVER MOBILE BAY…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL AROUND 540
AM CST…1140 UTC…ON DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA…WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH…75 KM/HR.
AT 600 AM CST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES…40 KM…SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE
MAINLAND ALABAMA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR
…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED…AND
IDA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.
A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
…SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…30.3N 88.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE/CANGIALOSI
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TS IDA Discussion 26
Nov0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 100842
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
THE CENTER OF IDA IS NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION…AS THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHEAR OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE SHOW
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SLOWLY RISEN TO 999 MB. THE HIGHEST
850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 53 KT AT 0733 UTC…AND THE HIGHEST RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE
AROUND 40 KT. WINDS AT THE NUMEROUS MARINE PLATFORMS ALONG THE
GULF COAST HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
BASED ON ALL THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST…
ALTHOUGH IDA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
WHEN IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF IDA BEING ABSORBED INTO
A FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLINIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
AIRCRAFT FIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT INDICATED THAT IDA
WAS MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES AND MULTI-CHANNEL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A FASTER MOTION JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH MAY
HAVE BEGUN…AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/08. DATA FROM
THE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS WELL-DEFINED. THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHICH COULD BE
BEGINNING NOW AND FINALLY WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND LATER
TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND MORE WESTERLY
INITIAL POSITION AND A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE FACT THAT THE LANDFALL OF IDA HAS BEEN DELAYED HAS LITTLE
SIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY SPREAD ONSHORE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 29.9N 88.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 30.8N 88.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 86.4W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 11/1800Z 30.4N 84.4W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS IDA Public Advisory 26
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 100837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
…IDA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS IT WEAKENS A
LITTLE MORE…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 300 AM CST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES…95 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY…AND IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.
A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL…AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
…SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…29.9N 88.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
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TS IDA Public Advisory 25A
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 100536
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
…IDA SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 1200 AM CST…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES…150 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
IDA HAS SLOWED DOWN…AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10
MPH…17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS IDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL…AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE OBSERVATION SITE
LOCATED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH…72 KM/HR…AND A GUST TO 55 MPH…89
KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.
A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL…AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
…SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…29.5N 88.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
300 AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TS IDA Discussion 25
Nov0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 100300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE
CENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX THAT POSITIONED
THE CENTER EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WELL SOUTH OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE FORWARD SPEED OF IDA HAS SLOWED TO
ABOUT 11 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A CONTINUED
REDUCTION IN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM AND A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AFTER LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 12 HOURS AND IS THEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 71 KT AND A SMFR SURFACE WIND OF 51 KT. THIS SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. IDA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. ONCE INLAND THE
CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 36-48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IDA’S LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE
SIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 29.3N 88.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.8N 87.9W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/0000Z 31.5N 86.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.3N 84.8W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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TS IDA Public Advisory 25
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 100252
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
…IDA MOVING SLOWER…CENTER APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 900 PM CST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES…165 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER
LANDFALL…IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH…100
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
IDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL…AND IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.
A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL…AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
…SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…29.3N 88.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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TS IDA Public Advisory 24A
Nov0
000
WTNT31 KNHC 092354
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
…IDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD…SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 600 PM CST…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES…60 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 125 MILES…200 KM…SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR. A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…
THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.
AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS IDA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL…AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AN OBSERVING SITE NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET MEASURED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH A GUST TO 74 MPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.
RAINS FROM IDA ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL…AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
…SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…28.9N 88.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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TS IDA Discussion 24
Nov0
000
WTNT41 KNHC 092056
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
WITH ONE INTERESTING EXCEPTION…THE LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IDA
REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A CONVECTIVE BURST THAT
BEGAN A FEW HOURS AGO HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THE WEAKENING TREND.
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 58
KT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 60 KT. ON THE MOST
RECENT OUTBOUND PASS…HOWEVER…THE SFMR DID REPORT A VERY SMALL
AREA OF 70-75 KT SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER JUST
DOWNWIND OF THE CONVECTIVE BURST. GIVEN THAT THE CONCURRENT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE ONLY 45 TO 55 KT…THIS APPEARS TO BE A
LOCAL CONVECTIVE-SCALE PEAK UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION.
SSTS BELOW THE CENTER ARE NOW ABOUT 26C…AND GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS
STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL…AND SO A RESUMPTION OF THE EARLIER WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SOON.
IDA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD…355/16. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW APPRECIABLY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS…BUT IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS MUCH LONGER IDA WILL
LIKELY MOVE ON SHORE SOONER THAN FORECAST. MY OFFICIAL 12 HOUR
FORECAST POINT IS ALREADY AHEAD OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK…AND CALLS FOR IDA TO TURN EASTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RAINBANDS
ARE ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE
CURRENT MOTION AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR…IDA SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 28.4N 88.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 30.2N 88.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 31.0N 87.1W 40 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 85.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1800Z 30.0N 83.5W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
——————————————————————
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National Hurricane Center
:// or ://hurricanes.gov
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PRIVACY: ://www.weather.gov/privacy.php
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