NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 010931
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 01 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 06N90W TO 05N95W. ITCZ
FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
AN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 135W WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NE BY THU IN PHASE WITH A PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
DIGGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. WEST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND WHILE THIS WILL
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS S OF 30N AND W OF 140W...IT WILL
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
32N125W. SUBSEQUENTLY A BROAD AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS S
OF THE HIGH PRES FROM ROUGHLY 06N TO 20N W OF 120W WILL SHRINK
IN AREA SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE THU. MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS GENERATED BY
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PUSH SE AND COVER
MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY LATE THU.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS AREA INTO THU.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 010307
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 01 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 03N81W TO 06N90W TO 04.5N95W. ITCZ
FROM 04.5N95W TO BEYOND TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N139W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 26N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 130W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAINTAINING THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS. A FRESH ROUND OF NW
SWELL WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 FT WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY THU AFTERNOON.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE
GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
AL
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 312138
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1027 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N139W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 26N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 14N W OF 130W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAINTAINING THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS. A FRESH ROUND OF NW
SWELL WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 FT WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY THU AFTERNOON.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE
GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA BY THU AFTERNOON.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
AL
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 311538
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 05N94W. ITCZ FROM 05N94W TO
06N120W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 22N BETWEEN
105W AND 115W.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S
OF MEXICO FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PRESENTLY FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND
107W. W OF THE TROUGH A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 100W.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N144W. A SURFACE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
24N113W. NE TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE THE RIDGE FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. A NE SWELL TRAIN OF 8 TO 10 FT IS MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 08N
AND W OF 120W IN 48 HOURS.
20-30 KT N-NE GAP WINDS ARE GOING THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
20-25 KT E GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
20 KT N WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 311005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W
TO 18N140W THEN ON TO 05N145W. DESPITE DECENT UPPER
FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY W OF 120W TO SUPPORT
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD
ALONG 37N WILL TEMPORARILY COME IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD NORTH OF 30N ALONG 135W TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BY LATE
WED...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST...A 1026 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N145W TO WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD TO 33N135W
EARLY WED...THEN NE TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY THU. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW
MAINLY FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 125W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND
0700 UTC SHOWED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT W OF 130W...SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE INITIALIZATIONS FROM BOTH THE WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE
MODELS. NW SWELL FROM 8 TO 12 FT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FAR WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA BY WED...REACHING AS FAR W AS 120W
BY THU.
E OF 110W...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
20N115W TO EQUATOR NEAR 80W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND
108W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSISTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE RELATED TO RESIDUAL FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW
FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. THE CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER MEXICO THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND ALONG 110W S OF 20N BY THU.
THE GAP FLOW THROUGH BOTH AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WED...BUT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LONG COMBINED PLUMES FROM BOTH AREAS WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS
105W FROM 08N TO 13N...WITH E SWELL AS HIGH AS 10 FT TODAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 310349
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N73W 1006 MB TO
02N79W TO 05.5N86W TO 04N96W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 05N124W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 3-4
DAYS...AND IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. PRESENTLY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SPANS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 138W...WITH
SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGHS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE...BOTH
TILTING INWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS. THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH
CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSTABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO LINGER FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN
101W AND 113W. THE TROUGH TO THE W IS ANCHORED ON A DEEP LAYERED
CUT OFF LOW NEAR 13N148W EXTENDING NE TO 23N138W....WHERE IT HAS
LINKED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN INTACT
WHILE THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH DRIFTS SLOWLY E FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE THE CUT OFF LOW IS EJECTED OUT TO THE E-NE
BEGINNING THU AND A NEW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF
15N W OF 120W...CENTERED ON A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N147W. NE
TRADES AT 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA WERE DEPICTED BY RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 134W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A BROAD ZONE OF
MUCH STRONGER TRADEWINDS WERE FOUND FARTHER W...AND DUE SOUTH OF
THE HIGH CENTER...EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED E AND
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...ACTING TO RELAX THE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THE PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THE PAST 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT MAINLY COVERING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED EVENING.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE BLOWING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PRODUCING GAP WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...GAP WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING AS FAR W AS
105W BY WED AFTERNOON...AND MAINTAINING SEAS 8 TO 9 FT THERE.
$$
STRIPLING
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 302205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 30 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N73W TO 03N78W TO
07N89W TO 04N96W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON
TO 06N115W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 3-4
DAYS...AND IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. PRESENTLY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SPANS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 138W...WITH
SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE...BOTH
TILTING INWARD. THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH CONTINUES TO CREATE
UNSTABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO LINGER FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 113W. THE TROUGH TO THE W IS ANCHORED ON
A DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW NEAR 13N148W EXTENDING NE TO
23N138W....WHERE IT HAS LINKED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN TACT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE CUT
OFF LOW IS EJECTED OUT TO THE E-NE BEGINNING THU.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF
15N W OF 120W...CENTERED ON A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N147W. NE
TRADES AT 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA WERE DEPICTED PER RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE THE
RIDGE FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 135W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A BROAD
ZONE OF MUCH STRONGER TRADEWINDS WERE FOUND FARTHER W...AND DUE
SOUTH OF THE HIGH CENTER...EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. HAS TIGHTENED THE
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED EVENING.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE BLOWING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PRODUCING GAP WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...GAP WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING AS FAR W AS
105W BY WED AFTERNOON.
$$
STRIPLING
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 301520
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 30 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 6N78W 04N95W. ITCZ FROM 4N95W 6N110W 4N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA W OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 105W-125W.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 15NN100W TO THE EQUATOR AT 85W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE TROUGH N OF 9N. W OF THE TROUGH A BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N.
SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. NE
TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
THE RIDGE FROM 6N-20N W OF 135W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. HAS TIGHTENED THE
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITION ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.
ELY WINDS 20-30 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND ARE EXPECTED DECREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE NLY
WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED.
$$
DGS
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 300939
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 30 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 06N79W TO 04N95W. ITCZ FROM 04N95W
TO 06N110W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN N OF 20N HAS DE-AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND IN
THE PROCESS CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 13N145W...AND
FLATTENING A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 125W S OF 30N. THE
ASSOCIATED 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N133W WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS MAINLY FROM THE ITCZ TO 20 N W OF 130W. THE UPPER
PATTERN N OF 20N WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY WED AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES OUT OF THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC TOWARD
CALIFORNIA. THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND DRIFT EAST TO 135W
BY WED. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
THE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW BY MID WEEK.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. THIS IS IN PART
RESPONSE TO UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM 15N110W TO EQUATOR AT 90W. THIS IS
AIDED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO GAP WIND FLOW OUT OF THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THIS AREA AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS CAPTURED NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. A LARGE PLUME OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH
ASSOCIATED NE TO E FRESH SWELL AS FAR WEST AS 105W BETWEEN 08N
AND 13N.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OVER NICARAGUA INTO
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS AS FAR W AS 91W. THE GAP FLOW AND
RELATED FRESH SWELL WILL MIX WITH DIMINISHING GAP FLOW AND SWELL
OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE...REACHING AS FAR W AS 105W.
GULF OF PANAMA...0500 UTC OSCAT DATA OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA
SHOW 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP...AN EXTENSION OF STRONGER
TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS NW MEXICO IS
DAMPENING OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
WEAKENING. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT...AS DEPICTED BY A 0644 UTC OSCAT PASS.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 300344
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 30 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N76W 1008 MB TO
03N78W TO 05N85W TO 03N94W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ
AXIS...CONTINUING ON TO 02N98W TO 05N112W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM
83W AND 87W.
...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18
HOURS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 33N133W TO A DEEP LAYERED
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N149W...WITH BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE EQUATOR. THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE HAS BECOME CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN FLOW WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM TO THE
E...S OF 20N CENTERED ALONG 129W. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FLAT
RIDGE...A BROAD AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF A SHEARED AND STRETCHED TROUGH NEAR 22N130W TO A
SHARP BASE NEAR 08N106W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ACT TO VENTILATE CONVECTION OCCURRING
TO ITS E...AS THE COUPLED CONVECTION SHIFTS N AND NE WITH THE
TROUGH. TO THE N OF THIS... A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 25N107W TO
19N120W...WITH A 60-70 KT JET SEGMENT TO THE S OF THE TROUGH
HELPING TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A LARGE POOL OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ N TO AS FAR N AS 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 123W...TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EPAC HIGH PRES RIDGE...THE
ITCZ...AND GAP WIND FLOW SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND MERGING WITH THE WEAK NE TRADEWINDS. THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW UPSTREAM COMING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
INCREASED THE LOW LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THIS UNSTABLE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W...WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL LIGHTNING
NETWORK...AND CLOUD TOPS TO -64 C. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS
AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N AND NE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE WEAKENING EPAC SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF
16N W OF 120W...AND WILL SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SMALL AREA OF NE TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 12N W OF 136W...WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT.
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. HAS ONCE AGAIN
TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN
GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
EVENING. GALE CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MON AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE.
ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND EXTEND DOWNSTREAM TO 92W...AND ARE AIDING IN
INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE MONSOON THROUGH THERE.
THIS STRONG GAP WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE AND
EXPAND DOWNSTREAM TO BEYOND 100W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
$$
STRIPLING
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A