NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 021504
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 02 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1500 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N98W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
04N98W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO
23N132W TO 18N136W IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. WHILE THIS IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS...THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD...SOME OF
WHICH IS REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS W OF 120W ALONG 10N. THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A STORM-FORCE CYCLONE NORTH
OF OUR REGION SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN CORNER THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE REMAINING GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS STAYING BELOW OUR 20 KT
THRESHOLD...THUS THESE WINDS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED...CONTINUED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE STORM-FORCE
CYCLONE WILL PUSH ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. HIGHEST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD REACH 12-13 FT THIS EVENING AND
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR REGION...BASED UPON A
BLEND OF THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH AND OTHER GLOBAL MODEL BASED
GUIDANCE.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS
ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE GAP WINDS OF 2O TO 25 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT
OF NOCTURNALLY-DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS
NOTED ON A 0552 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT
INSTRUMENT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY
FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG GAP
FLOW...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE SW GULF FOLLOWED BY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS FORECAST ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE NARROW GULF IS NOT WELL-REPRESENTED IN THE
MODELS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GALE IN THE AREA.
$$
LANDSEA
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AXPZ20 KNHC 020957
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 02 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 03N77W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH
SAT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL WEAKEN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 38N125W AND PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH TO
28N125W AS A 1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTER...BLOCKING A STALLING AND
WEAKENING COLD FRONT NE OF HAWAII. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 115W SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES WILL
SHRINK WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BE CONTAINED FROM 05N
TO 14N W OF 125W THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE...NW SWELL GENERATED
FROM A SERIES OF LOW PRES AREAS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY LATE THU. AS THIS
INITIAL SWELL DECAYS BELOW 8 FT...A REINFORCING TRAIN OF NW
SWELL WILL FOLLOW FRI.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU...THEN DIMINISH AS FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN VEERS
MORE TO THE EAST.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS
NOTED ON A 0320 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST PACIFIC
AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT
BY FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG GAP
FLOW...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...WILL BE SUN INTO MON AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE SW GULF FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
LATE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF
THE AREA AND A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
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AXPZ20 KNHC 020352
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 02 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 05N77W TO 06N94W. ITCZ FROM 06N94W TO BEYOND
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N125W
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO
16N W OF 115W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN ENABLING A
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY
FRI...BUT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL ENTER THE NW PART OF THE
AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 15 FT OVER THE FAR NW PART OF
THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WEAKENING...AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF
8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS GENERATED BY STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THIS SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF THE AREA
W OF 110W BY LATE THU.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS AREA INTO THU.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST PACIFIC AND WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON.
$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 012109
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 01 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N81W TO
05N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1028 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N128W
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO
16N W OF 130W AND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NW
PART OF THE AREA BY FRI...BUT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL ENTER
THE NW PART OF THE AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 15 FT BY
FRI AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE AREA OF
FRESH TRADEWINDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE NW
SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS
GENERATED BY STORM SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO PUSH SE. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY LATE THU.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS AREA INTO THU.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 011518
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 01 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 5N77W 5N94W. ITCZ FROM 5N94W 3N105W 5N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N133W TO 17N140W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 15N E OF THE TROUGH. THE RIDGE IS
BEING FURTHER FLATTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 130W-115W.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 15N98W TO EQUATOR AT 79W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
N OF 10N E OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 10N E OF
100W.
SURFACE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. NE
TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
THE RIDGE FROM 5N-15N W OF 120W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. NW SWELLS
IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA N OF 15N W
OF 130W.
STRONG PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NE
WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITION
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELY WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE CONDITION ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
DGS
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010931
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 01 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 06N90W TO 05N95W. ITCZ
FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
AN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 135W WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NE BY THU IN PHASE WITH A PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
DIGGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. WEST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND WHILE THIS WILL
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS S OF 30N AND W OF 140W...IT WILL
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
32N125W. SUBSEQUENTLY A BROAD AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS S
OF THE HIGH PRES FROM ROUGHLY 06N TO 20N W OF 120W WILL SHRINK
IN AREA SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE THU. MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS GENERATED BY
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PUSH SE AND COVER
MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY LATE THU.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS AREA INTO THU.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010307
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 01 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 03N81W TO 06N90W TO 04.5N95W. ITCZ
FROM 04.5N95W TO BEYOND TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N139W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 26N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 130W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAINTAINING THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS. A FRESH ROUND OF NW
SWELL WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 FT WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY THU AFTERNOON.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE
GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 312138
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1027 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N139W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 26N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 14N W OF 130W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAINTAINING THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS. A FRESH ROUND OF NW
SWELL WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 FT WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY THU AFTERNOON.
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE
GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA BY THU AFTERNOON.
A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
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AXPZ20 KNHC 311538
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 05N94W. ITCZ FROM 05N94W TO
06N120W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 22N BETWEEN
105W AND 115W.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S
OF MEXICO FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PRESENTLY FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND
107W. W OF THE TROUGH A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 100W.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N144W. A SURFACE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
24N113W. NE TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE THE RIDGE FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. A NE SWELL TRAIN OF 8 TO 10 FT IS MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 08N
AND W OF 120W IN 48 HOURS.
20-30 KT N-NE GAP WINDS ARE GOING THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
20-25 KT E GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
20 KT N WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
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AXPZ20 KNHC 311005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W
TO 18N140W THEN ON TO 05N145W. DESPITE DECENT UPPER
FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY W OF 120W TO SUPPORT
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD
ALONG 37N WILL TEMPORARILY COME IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD NORTH OF 30N ALONG 135W TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BY LATE
WED...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST...A 1026 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N145W TO WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD TO 33N135W
EARLY WED...THEN NE TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY THU. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW
MAINLY FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 125W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND
0700 UTC SHOWED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT W OF 130W...SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE INITIALIZATIONS FROM BOTH THE WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE
MODELS. NW SWELL FROM 8 TO 12 FT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FAR WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA BY WED...REACHING AS FAR W AS 120W
BY THU.
E OF 110W...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
20N115W TO EQUATOR NEAR 80W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND
108W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSISTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE RELATED TO RESIDUAL FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW
FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. THE CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER MEXICO THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND ALONG 110W S OF 20N BY THU.
THE GAP FLOW THROUGH BOTH AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WED...BUT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LONG COMBINED PLUMES FROM BOTH AREAS WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS
105W FROM 08N TO 13N...WITH E SWELL AS HIGH AS 10 FT TODAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
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