NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 130251
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 13 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N93W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT
10N105W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 09N115W TO 06N120W THEN ITCZ TO
04N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W AND
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS POSITIONED AT 32N132W AND IS MOVING NE. THE CIRCULATION HAS
A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 12 DEGREES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A 32N120W TO 20N125W TO
10N140W LINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND ALSO IN THE LARGE AREA S OF 25N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 120W. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N128W.
ALSO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N136W.
WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT E OF 100W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTH AMERICA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONE IS AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A 08N100W TO 11N105W LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1009 MB LOW
AT 10N105W. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST IN 18 HOURS
WITH WINDS NE 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT.
$$
CAB
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 122123
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N95W TO A 1008 MB LOW AT
10N105W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 09N114W TO 06N119W AND THEN
CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ TO 04N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A 06N80W TO 04N87W LINE...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
07N91W TO 07N99W LINE...AND FROM 07 TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND
113W.
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS POSITIONED AT 30N133W AND IS MOVING NE. THE CIRCULATION HAS
A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 12 DEGREES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A
32N125W TO 20N125W TO 10N140W LINE AT DAY TWO. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND ALSO IN THE LARGE AREA S OF 25N TO THE EQUATOR W OF
120W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N128W. ALSO A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N137W.
WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT E OF 100W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTH AMERICA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONE IS AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A 09N99W TO 12N104W LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1008 MB LOW
AT 10N105W. ANOTHER IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 10N117W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE 1009 MB LOW AT 09N114W. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS
FORECAST IN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS NE 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT.
$$
CAB
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
=
Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (Atlantic, all vers=
ions) for NOAA's National Weather Service.
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 121558
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N96W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES AT
09N105W TO SECOND LOW PRES AT 10N113W TO 06N120W THEN ITCZ TO
04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH
FROM 94W TO 100W.
ALOFT...DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE AT 30N137W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 21N140W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRES 1014 MB AT
29N138W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 25N138W. VERY DRY
SUBSIDING AIR MASS ENCROACH INTO BASIN N OF 24N W OF 130W. WEAK
DOWNSTREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 120W SUPPORT
SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRES AT 25N128W. W SIDE OF RIDGE ADVECTS
MOISTURE ON 60 KT SW JET CORE.
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 10N118W
ALSO MAINTAINING DRY SLOT BETWEEN ITS AXIS AND RIDGE. BROAD
ANTICYCLONE OVER GUATEMALA EXTEND ITS FLOW W ALONG 09N PROVIDING
MODERATE TO STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 116W.
SEVERAL LOW PRES CENTERS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION. LOW PRES CENTER1009 MB AT 06N112W...PREVIOUSLY
LABELED 91E...HAS ENTRAINED DRY AIR AND LOST MOST OF ITS
CONVECTION. SECOND LOW PRES AT 10N113W IS VERY CLOSE TO DRY
SLOT AND ONLY HAS ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MAIN
FEATURE IS 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 10N105W...90E...WHICH CONTINUES
EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH BUT STILL HAS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
...SST ABOVE 29 DEGREES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE BECOME MORE IN TUNE WITH DEVELOPMENT THIS FEATURE
INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO NFDHSFEP2 OR NHCTWOEP
FOR DETAILS OF FORECAST POSITIONS AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS...
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS WELL ANCHORED NEAR 26N128W WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND LOW LEVEL STRATIFIED CLOUDINESS N
OF 12N W OF 110W. HIGH PRES CENTER EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE AND
STRENGTHEN KEEPING AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS YIELDING SEAS UP TO 9 FT PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS
GALE EVENT N OF BASIN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE SAT.
WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA FORCING N
WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY SUN. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUE.
BUILDING PRES GRADIENT INCREASING E WINDS ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL STRONG E WINDS INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY
SUN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
$$
WALLY BARNES
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 120948
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES AT 09N106W TO
ANOTHER LOW PRES AT 07N112.5W TO 06N120W THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES
TO 04N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
TROUGH FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80.5W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 90.5W
ALOFT...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS SPINNING NEAR 31N137W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION.
AN AREA OF S TO SW WINDS OF 70-85 KT IS NOTED SE OF LOW CENTER.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 28N138W 1017 MB DRIFTING NE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR
16N109W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED
DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 16N AND E OF 116W. A BROAD
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. A SECOND BROAD
RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA DOMINATES THE WATERS E OF 105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A COUPLE OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE EASTERNMOST IS LOCATED NEAR 09N106W WITH A
CONVECTIVE BAND WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THE
WESTERNMOST IS SITUATED NEAR 07N112W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW HAS ALMOST GONE AND ONLY FEW SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BEEN IN AGREEMENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW PRES CURRENTLY AT 09N106W HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE UKMET AND KEEPS
THE LOW PRES RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS OF 20 KT FOR THIS CYCLE.
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR
27N128W PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS WEAK HIGH PRES...NE TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT ARE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 136W. THE 0712 UTC ASCAT PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE HIGH WILL SINK
SLIGHTLY SE AND STRENGTHEN TO 1022 MB KEEPING THE AREA OF TRADE
WINDS AND PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 KT JUST W OF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS YIELDING SEAS UP TO 9 FT PRODUCED BY
PREVIOUS GALE EVENT WELL N OF BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS N OF 23N W OF 116W WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY SAT NIGHT.
WEAK TROUGH MOVING W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BY SUN MORNING. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 10 FT LIKELY THROUGH TUE.
WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE GAP.
$$
GR
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 120249
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 10N93W TO LOW PRES AT
09N106W TO 10.5N109W TO LOW PRES AT 08N113.5W TO 05N122W THEN
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO THE EQUATOR AT 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF TROUGH TO 03N E OF 92W...AND N OF
TROUGH TO 14N S OF TROUGH TO 04N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W.
ALOFT...
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE SPINNING NEAR 29N138.5W HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FORECAST...AND IS CLIPPING
FAR NW CORNER OF BASIN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N139W 1015
MB DRIFTING NE....WHILE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
SW TO A POINT SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SECOND VIGOROUS
CYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY E. MID TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SW...EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO TO
NEAR 15N117W AND MOVING SOMEWHAT IN TANDEM WITH CYCLONE...BUT
HAS YET TO COME IN PHASE WITH IT. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN
SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH BEGINNING TO IMPINGE UPON NW PORTIONS OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION IN MONSOON TROUGH...AND SECOND LOW ALONG
MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. BROAD RIDGE BETWEEN CYCLONES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD BETWEEN 20N-30N...BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND CURRENTLY ALONG 122W THERE. S OF THESE FEATURES
LIES TWO TROPICAL RIDGES...ONE CENTERED ON COLLAPSING UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 07N128W AND EXTENDING N-NE...AND MERGING
WITH RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND A SECOND BROAD RIDGE CENTERED
ON UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N89W EXTENDING N ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND SPANNING BETWEEN 70W AND 114W. DEEP
CONVECTION PULSING ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO INDUCE DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE S SIDE OF RIDGE BETWEEN
05N-10N AND IS AIDING IN MAINTAINING THIS PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT. RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE TROPICS IS
BUILDING NE AND HELPING TO PUSH EWD THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAILING SW INTO THE TROPICS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT E DURING THE WEEKEND AND WEEKEND...BUT NOT
MAKE IT EWD PAST 110W. IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE
ON THE CONVECTION IN THE W END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND THE
LOW CENTER ALONG 113.5W DURING THAT TIME.
AT LOWER LEVELS...TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 08N113.5W AND A SECOND
NEAR 09N106W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN AGREEMENT
THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS DIMINISHED...AS DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR
IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...
THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT
SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NW TO N DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN
VERY INSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THAT THIS LOW WILL
INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AS IT PRESENTLY COVERED IN OUR OUR HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2.
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER HAS DEVELOP JUST NW OF THE AREA
NEAR 26N128W AND EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N104W. DUE TO WEAK
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...NE TRADEWINDS
REMAIN BELOW 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
20 KT ACROSS FAR W PORTIONS W OF 137W BY 24 HOURS. THE HIGH WILL
SINK SLIGHTLY SE AND STRENGTHEN TO 1022 MB OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INDUCE GRADIENT WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS YIELDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT PRODUCED BY
PREVIOUS GALE EVENT WELL N OF BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS N OF 24N W OF 119W WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY SAT NIGHT.
WEAK TROUGH MOVING W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE NLY WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUN
MORNING TO PRODUCE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...THAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH
TUE.
$$
STRIPLING
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 112225
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N86W TO 11N99W TO LOW
PRES AT 09N105.5W TO 10N111W TO LOW PRES AT 08.5N114W TO 06N123W
THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG S OF
TROUGH TO 03N E OF 90W AND S OF TROUGH TO 04.5N BETWEEN 90W AND
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW PRES AT
09N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF
LOW PRES AT 08.5N114W09N105.5W. EXCEPT 310 NM SW QUADRANT.
ALOFT...
MID TO UPPER CYCLONE SPINNING NEAR 28N141W HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NE
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS FORECAST...AND IS CLIPPING
FAR NW CORNER OF BASIN. ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
SW TO S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SECOND VIGOROUS CYCLONE OVER N
CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY E. MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SW...EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO TO 17N113W AND
MOVING SOMEWHAT IN TANDEM WITH CYCLONE...BUT HAS YET TO COME IN
PHASE WITH IT. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN SOUTHERN END OF
TROUGH BEGINNING TO IMPINGE UPON NW PORTIONS OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN MONSOON TROUGH...AND SECOND LOW ALONG MONSOON
TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. BROAD RIDGE BETWEEN CYCLONES SHIFTING
SLOWLY EWD BETWEEN 20N-30N...BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
CURRENTLY ALONG 123W THERE. S OF THESE FEATURES LIES TWO
TROPICAL RIDGES...ONE CENTERED ON MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
07N128W AND EXTENDING N-NE...AND MERGING WITH RIDGE DESCRIBED
ABOVE...AND A SECOND BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON UPPER ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 12N91W EXTENDING N ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SPANNING BETWEEN 70W AND 114W. DEEP CONVECTION PULSING S OF THE
MONSOONAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE S
SIDE OF RIDGE BETWEEN 05N-10N AND IS AIDING IN MAINTAINING THIS
PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT.
AT LOWER LEVELS...TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 09N105.5W AND A SECOND
NEAR 09N105.5W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN
AGREEMENT THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...THE WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS
MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SHORT BANDS...BUT
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR
THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES
NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A
PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED
CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AS
IT PRESENTLY COVERED IN OUR OUR HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIAHSFEP2.
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER HAS DEVELOP JUST NW OF THE AREA
NEAR 23N129W AND EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N104W. DUE TO WEAK
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...NE TRADEWINDS
REMAIN BELOW 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
20 KT ACROSS FAR W PORTIONS W OF 137W BY 24 HOURS. THE HIGH WILL
SINK SLIGHTLY SE AND STRENGTHEN TO 1022 MB OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INDUCE GRADIENT WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS UP TO 11 FT PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS GALE EVENT
WELL N OF BASIN PRESENTLY AFFECT WATERS N OF 23N W OF 118W WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SAT NIGHT.
WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO FORCE N
WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD SUN.
$$
STRIPLING
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 111537
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 11N100W TO 1007 MB LOW
PRES AT 08.7N104.8W TO 10N110W TO 05N123W THEN ITCZ TO 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS
FROM 89W TO 117W AND E OF 80W.
ALOFT...
HEALTHY MID TO UPPER CYCLONE SPINNING NEAR 29N142W STARTED
MAKING ITS TURN TO THE NE BARELY CLIPPING FAR NW CORNER OF BASIN
LATER TODAY. SECOND VIGOROUS CYCLONE OVER W TEXAS DRIFT NE
WEAKENING ITS ATTENDANT LONGWAVE TROUGH. TROUGH EXTEND FROM TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 15N118W WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING
AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM W OF AXIS. BROAD RIDGE WITH CREST ALONG
124W HOLDS ITS POSITION BETWEEN BOTH CYCLONES AND ADVECTS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO W COAST N OF 32N.
STRING OF ANTICYCLONES ALONG 10N ADD A TOUCH OF DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS. ONE PARTICULAR ANTICYCLONE
SITS RIGHT OVER DEVELOPING 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR
08.7N104.8W WHERE SST TOP 29 DEGREES CELSIUS...ALBEIT ONLY IN A
SHALLOW TOP LAYER. UNDER THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM WITH DIFFERENT TRACKS
AND INTENSITIES. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
THAN GFS...BUT DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN UKMET OR NOGAPS...MORE
IN TUNE WITH CMC BRINGING SPINNING WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN NEXT 48
HRS BEFORE A QUICK DOWNTURN AFTER THE WEEKEND LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOWNESS OF WARM WATER LAYER AND INCREASING SW WIND SHEAR
FROM UPSTREAM APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL N OF AREA EXTEND RIDGE TO 18N117W.
RIDGE WEAKENED BY SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 138W N OF 25N DRIFTING W
OUT OF BASIN LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG ENOUGH WITHIN 180 NM OF W
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BRING MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB NEAR
08.7N104.8W AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PRESENTLY PROMOTES
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS
JUST W OF LOW PRES MAY CURTAIL INTENSIFICATION LATER IN FORECAST
PERIOD. WIDE SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
FORECAST AS STATISTICAL MODELS INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY WHILE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE MUCH TAMER. TO ADD EVEN MORE DIFFERENCE TO
THE POT...THE TRACKING VARIES AS MUCH AS THE INTENSITY BUT THE
TIMING IS MORE IN SYNC AMONG GUIDANCE. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH NEAR STORM FORCE...THE SHORT DURATION OF EPISODE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 10-11 FT.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS UP TO 11 FT PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS GALE EVENT
WELL N OF BASIN PRESENTLY AFFECT WATERS N OF 23N W OF 118W WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SAT NIGHT.
WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO FORCE N
WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD SUN.
$$
WALLY BARNES
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 110936
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N100W TO 08N104W...THEN
THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 05N120W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN
88W AND 94W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N
BETWEEN 96W AND 117W.
ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER CYCLONE SPINNING NEAR 28N143W WILL LIFT
NE CLIPPING THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A
VIGOROUS CUT OFF LOW IS OVER WEST TEXAS. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A
BROAD RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 126W THAT DOMINATES MOST OF
OF THE N WATERS. A SECOND BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N90W COVERS THE WATERS E OF 110W AND EXTENDS
E INTO THE SW CARIB. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 117W.
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA
NEAR 44N132W WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA...LEAVING A GRADUALLY RELAXING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS N
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS
PREVAILING OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA HAVE PRODUCE N AND NW SWELL
THAT CONTINUES TO INVADE THE N WATERS...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT
MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 120W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SWD TODAY AND DECAY NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT BY LATE SAT. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM
30N135W TO 27N140W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADES ARE FOUND S OF
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICS...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL
FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W. A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH...ONE IN THE VICINITY OF 08N112W AND A SECOND IN
THE VICINITY OF 08N104W. MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED
SW TO W WINDS NEAR 20 KT BLOWING INTO THESE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TRYING
TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS A WEAK LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE UKMET SOLUTION. THE GFS MODEL IS PERHAPS SHOWING
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER...IT IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR TO SEE
THE FIRST SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAY 15
MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TROPICAL SEASON IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. LONG-TERM AVERAGES OF TROPICAL STORMS...HURRICANES AND
MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 15...9...AND 4 RESPECTIVELY.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOP A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC
EVENT BY SUN.
$$
GR
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
=
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) f=
or NOAA's National Weather Service.
AXPZ20 KNHC 110248
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 06N94W TO 09N100W TO
08N105W TO 09N112W TO 07N117W TO 07N124W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 05.5N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 210 NM S
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 210 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 118W.
...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N145W IS APPROACHING W BOUNDARY
OF BASIN AND CONTINUES TO NUDGE DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EASTWARD...PRESENTLY CENTERED ALONG 125-130W AND N OF
21N. CYCLONE FORECAST TO LIFT NE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO
NUDGE RIDGE EWD AND WEAKEN IT...WITH RIDGE REACHING ALONG 120W
BY SUN MORNING. DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...VIGOROUS CUT OFF LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT E ACROSS FAR W TEXAS...IGNITING SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE E ACROSS CENTRAL AND S TEXAS. LOW
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING E THROUGH FRI BEFORE EJECTING NE
AND WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. TWO BROAD TROPICAL RIDGES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA S OF THESE FEATURES... ONE ALONG
135-140W AND S OF 18N...WITH A SECOND BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N93W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO
EXTREME SW CARIB. WIDESPREAD ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 118W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIVERGENT FLOW DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS AIDING IN MAINTAINING THE
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS W PORTIONS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERODE W PORTIONS OF THIS RIDGE...LEADING
RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED E OF 105-110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
A 1033 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA NEAR 45N131W CONTINUES
TO SHIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...LEAVING A GRADUALLY
RELAXING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAILING OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA
HAVE PRODUCE N AND NW SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO INTRUDE INTO N
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT ALONG THE N BORDER
NEAR 130W THIS EVENING. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SWD AND DECAY NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE
FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO
28.5N140W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADES ARE FOUND S OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE TROPICS...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW
GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W. MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SURROUNDING THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 116W LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND TWO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO
EMERGE...ONE IN THE VICINITY OF 08N112W AND A SECOND IN THE
VICINITY OF 08N102W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL
DRIFT NW AND CONTINUE TO PULSE CONVECTIVELY FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE WEAKENING. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTED SW TO
W WINDS NEAR 20 KT FLOWING INTO THIS CONVECTION...AND THESE
FRESH WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE WITH CONVECTIVE GROWTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
$$
STRIPLING
=20
To change your subscriptions or preferen=
ces log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page wit=
h your e-mail address.
Del=
ete
For questions or problems with the subsc=
ription service, please contact support@govdelivery.com.
This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to hurricane1776bcad1271941=
advis@ on behalf of the National Weather Service · 1325 E=
ast West Highway · Silver Spring, MD 20910
=0A