Hurricane



Headlines

 
 
 
 
 

Hurricane.com since 1994

Selected books from Hurricane.com

Hurricane Katrina: Devastation on the Gulf; Stormchasers, about hurricane hunters and their stories; Hurricane Watch - forecasting;The Storms of 2004 - summary of 2004 Hurricanes.

Florida Hurricanes 1871-2001;Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938;Violent Skies, a great introduction to Hurricanes for children;Hurricanes. A nice book for 2nd-4th graders.

Hurricane Andrew;Category 5:The Story of Hurricane Camille.

More Books: US UK CA JP DE FR

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

MM_XSLTransform error.
http://phonebook.com/rss/hurricane.com.xml is not a valid XML document.
DOMDocument::loadXML(): Space required after the Public Identifier in Entity, line: 1
DOMDocument::loadXML(): SystemLiteral " or ' expected in Entity, line: 1
DOMDocument::loadXML(): SYSTEM or PUBLIC, the URI is missing in Entity, line: 1 in file http://phonebook.com/rss/hurricane.com.xml.
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//IETF//DTD HTML 2.0//EN">
<html><head>
<title>301 Moved Permanently</title>
</head><body>
<h1>Moved Permanently</h1>
<p>The document has moved <a href="http://www.phonebook.com/rss/hurricane.com.xml">here</a>.</p>
</body></html>

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
534
ABNT20 KNHC 241754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Kirk, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands, and continues to issue advisories on
Subtropical Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the
Azores.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1400 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This system is producing showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force over the northern
portion of the wave. Redevelopment of this system is possible over
the next few days until it encounters highly unfavorable
upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become slightly more conducive for development
during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds
are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional
development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern
United States coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of
Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central
Atlantic by Wednesday. Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected
to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear
conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)- ...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 32.5, -48.0 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

115 
WTNT33 KNHC 241434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 48.0W
ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 48.0 West.  The
storm is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night.  A
turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight.  Leslie
is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while it interacts and
eventually merges with a frontal system.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

114 
WTNT23 KNHC 241434
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018
1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  48.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  48.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  48.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.5N  47.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.4N  45.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  20SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.3N  42.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.6N  39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  40SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N  48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

138 
WTNT43 KNHC 241434
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Conventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's
cloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a
few new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center.
Accordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35
kt.  The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models
show Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a
mid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the
cyclone.  Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after
completing an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will
deepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly
in the northwest quadrant.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects this
scenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt
within the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow.  A turn to
the east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude
trough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over
the central Atlantic.  The deterministic guidance indicate that the
aforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48
hour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low
pressure system.  Subsequently, the GFS and the European models
still show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening
with time.  For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging
scenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low
forecast points through day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 32.5N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 32.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 32.4N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 32.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 33.6N  39.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

144 
FONT13 KNHC 241434
PWSAT3
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018               
1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  



Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics- Subtropical Storm Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 14:36:47 GMT

Subtropical Storm Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 15:27:57 GMT
::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.