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Frequently asked questions about hurricanes and tropical storms.

  • When is Hurricane season? In the Atlantic, June 1 through November 30th. In the Pacific May 15th through November 30th.
  • When are storms most likely to occur? Generally in the months of August, September and October, however there have been tropical and sub-tropical storms in every month. See our Hurricane records page for more information.
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  • A Category 6 Hurricane? See Our take on a Category 6 Hurricane
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm

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    Advisory


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 201704
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Sebastien, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
    the northern Leeward Islands.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Latto


    Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)- ...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 21.7, -61.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

    Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 202036
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number   6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
    500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019
    
    ...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN...
    ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.7N 61.5W
    ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was
    located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sebastien is
    moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northeast
    with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien
    is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days
    and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Latto
    
    


    Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 202035
    TCMAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019
    2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  61.5W AT 20/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT.......100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.
    12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE   0SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  61.5W AT 20/2100Z
    AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  61.7W
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N  61.0W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT...100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.5N  59.0W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
    34 KT...100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.2N  55.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT...100NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N  51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT...100NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  61.5W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER LATTO
    
    
    


    Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 202037
    TCDAT5
    
    Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number   6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
    500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019
    
    Sebastien has changed little in organization today, with
    northwesterly shear displacing the deep convection to the southeast
    of an exposed low-level center. An ASCAT-C overpass late this
    morning sampled peak winds of 41 kt, and so the initial advisory
    intensity will remain 45 kt due to the assumption of undersampling
    by the scatterometer.
    
    Sebastien made its anticipated turn to the north earlier today, and
    the current motion is now 360/05 kt. The cyclone should turn to the
    northeast tonight and begin to accelerate as it gets embedded in
    increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and
    associated mid- to upper- level trough. The official forecast track
    is near the previous one through 24 hours, and a little slower and
    to the south of it beyond that time due to a shift in the model
    guidance.
    
    The approaching trough should provide a diffluent environment aloft
    over Sebastien beginning tonight and persisting until the system
    makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone in a couple of
    days. This is expected to result in some intensification over the
    next day or so. Once extratropical, the cyclone should gradually
    become absorbed into a frontal zone through the end of the week. The
    official forecast is changed little from the previous one, and is
    near the IVCN consensus.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  20/2100Z 21.7N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  21/0600Z 22.7N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
     24H  21/1800Z 24.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  22/0600Z 27.2N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
     48H  22/1800Z 30.0N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Latto
    
    


    Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019
    
    000
    FONT15 KNHC 202036
    PWSAT5
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6        
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019               
    2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR    
    LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER LATTO                                                    
    


    Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics- Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 20:37:31 GMT

    Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 20:37:31 GMT
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