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Hurricane FAQ

Frequently asked questions about hurricanes and tropical storms.

  • When is Hurricane season? In the Atlantic, June 1 through November 30th. In the Pacific May 15th through November 30th.
  • When are storms most likely to occur? Generally in the months of August, September and October, however there have been tropical and sub-tropical storms in every month. See our Hurricane records page for more information.
  • What is a hurricane? See this page for more information.
  • A Category 6 Hurricane? See Our take on a Category 6 Hurricane
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm

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    Advisory


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    534
    ABNT20 KNHC 241754
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing advisories on
    Tropical Depression Kirk, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands, and continues to issue advisories on
    Subtropical Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the
    Azores.

    A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1400 miles
    east of the Windward Islands. This system is producing showers and
    thunderstorms along with winds to gale force over the northern
    portion of the wave. Redevelopment of this system is possible over
    the next few days until it encounters highly unfavorable
    upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles
    south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina is producing
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
    are expected to become slightly more conducive for development
    during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
    to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds
    are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional
    development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern
    United States coast.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of
    Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central
    Atlantic by Wednesday. Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected
    to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear
    conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical
    characteristics by the end of the week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch



    Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)- ...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 32.5, -48.0 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

    Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    115 
    WTNT33 KNHC 241434
    TCPAT3
    
    BULLETIN
    Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
    1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    ...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE
    IN STRENGTH...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...32.5N 48.0W
    ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM W OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
    was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 48.0 West.  The
    storm is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
    general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night.  A
    turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
    forecast on Wednesday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast through tonight.  Leslie
    is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while it interacts and
    eventually merges with a frontal system.
    
    Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
    center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Roberts
    
    
    


    Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018
    
    114 
    WTNT23 KNHC 241434
    TCMAT3
    
    SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018
    1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  48.0W AT 24/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   4 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
    12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE 240SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  48.0W AT 24/1500Z
    AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  48.2W
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.5N  47.2W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.4N  45.5W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...  0NE   0SE  20SW 190NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.3N  42.8W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW 220NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.6N  39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    34 KT...  0NE   0SE  40SW 240NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N  48.0W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER ROBERTS
    
    
    
    


    Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    138 
    WTNT43 KNHC 241434
    TCDAT3
    
    Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
    1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    Conventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's
    cloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a
    few new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center.
    Accordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35
    kt.  The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models
    show Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a
    mid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the
    cyclone.  Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after
    completing an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will
    deepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly
    in the northwest quadrant.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects this
    scenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus.
    
    The initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt
    within the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow.  A turn to
    the east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude
    trough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over
    the central Atlantic.  The deterministic guidance indicate that the
    aforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48
    hour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low
    pressure system.  Subsequently, the GFS and the European models
    still show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening
    with time.  For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging
    scenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low
    forecast points through day 5.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/1500Z 32.5N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  25/0000Z 32.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  25/1200Z 32.4N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  26/0000Z 32.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
     48H  26/1200Z 33.6N  39.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Roberts
    
    
    


    Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018
    
    144 
    FONT13 KNHC 241434
    PWSAT3
                                                                        
    SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5        
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018               
    1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
    LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
    
    


    Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics- Subtropical Storm Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 14:36:47 GMT

    Subtropical Storm Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 15:27:57 GMT
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