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Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201704
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)- ...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 21.7, -61.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 202036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 61.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sebastien is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien
is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days
and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 202035
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019
2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  61.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  61.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  61.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N  61.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.5N  59.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.2N  55.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N  51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  61.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO




Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 202037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

Sebastien has changed little in organization today, with
northwesterly shear displacing the deep convection to the southeast
of an exposed low-level center. An ASCAT-C overpass late this
morning sampled peak winds of 41 kt, and so the initial advisory
intensity will remain 45 kt due to the assumption of undersampling
by the scatterometer.

Sebastien made its anticipated turn to the north earlier today, and
the current motion is now 360/05 kt. The cyclone should turn to the
northeast tonight and begin to accelerate as it gets embedded in
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and
associated mid- to upper- level trough. The official forecast track
is near the previous one through 24 hours, and a little slower and
to the south of it beyond that time due to a shift in the model
guidance.

The approaching trough should provide a diffluent environment aloft
over Sebastien beginning tonight and persisting until the system
makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone in a couple of
days. This is expected to result in some intensification over the
next day or so. Once extratropical, the cyclone should gradually
become absorbed into a frontal zone through the end of the week. The
official forecast is changed little from the previous one, and is
near the IVCN consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 21.7N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 22.7N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 24.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 27.2N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 30.0N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto



Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 202036
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019               
2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    


Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics- Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 20:37:31 GMT

Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 20:37:31 GMT
::
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