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Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
870
ABNT20 KNHC 151733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Subtropical Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles
southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)- ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 39.0, -45.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 3-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

951 
WTNT35 KNHC 152035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward
motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or
early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the
United Kingdom on Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 3-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018

593 
WTNT25 KNHC 152034
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  45.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  45.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  45.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.4N  44.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N  42.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.1N  37.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  80SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 48.0N  31.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.0N  15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N  45.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 3-Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

320 
WTNT45 KNHC 152035
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in
convection near and to the east of the center of Ernesto this
afternoon, but there has been little change in the overall
organization of the subtropical storm.  The satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB remains an ST2.5, so the initial wind speed
remains 35 kt for this advisory.  Ernesto is forecast to remain over
marginally warm SSTs and in a low wind shear environment during the
next 12-24 hours, and some modest strengthening is anticipated.
After that time, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs below 20C and
into an area of increasing vertical wind shear.  As a result,
Ernesto is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36
hours, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United
Kingdom in 3 to 4 days.

Ernesto is moving northward or 005/8 kt.  The cyclone should turn
north-northeastward tonight ahead of a mid-level trough that is
located off the coast of the eastern United States. Ernesto is
forecast to become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by
late Thursday and it is expected to accelerate northeastward at
that time. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
NHC forecast is again near the center of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 39.0N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 40.4N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 42.6N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 45.1N  37.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  17/1800Z 48.0N  31.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  18/1800Z 53.0N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Brown




Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018

987 
FONT15 KNHC 152035
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018               
2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics- Subtropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 20:44:30 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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