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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical
wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this
afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but
confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although
the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development
is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this
weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly
westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)- ...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 23.0, -65.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 18-Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 212049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next
several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a
research mission around Jerry.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 212049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  65.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N  66.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N  67.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 35.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY




Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 18-Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 212050
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level
center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent
deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research
mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum
pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum
pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT
data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds
were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held
at 55 kt for this advisory.

Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and
users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical
storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's
disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem
imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone
will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane
again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is
possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen.
The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps
Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is
still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near
Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that
Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next
5 days.

All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or
on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning
northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last
advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and
remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 23.0N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 24.3N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 25.8N  67.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 27.0N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 28.5N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 35.5N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 212049
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  38(42)  24(66)   1(67)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   X(27)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics- Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:52:27 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:24:50 GMT
::
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