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2018 Hurricane Names

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"Run from the water; hide from the wind."

We get a fair number of questions about supplies that we recommend or use during hurricanes. Here is a list of some. We'll be adding more to the list as time progresses. One that I'd like to try but haven't is the "Aqua Dam" essentially huge (6 feet or something) versions of this. They are more expensive than these smaller ones. These flood diversion tubes are alternatives to sand bags and easier to move, deploy and clean up later. There is a similar version down below. Both are helpful if you anticipate flooding.

Some supplies that we have found useful during storms - they are available from Amazon making it even easier. Some places for same day delivery. Take a look at theme and see what you think - and let us know in the forum area.

These flood barriers are easy to use and are similar to the flood barriers above - we used them during Hurricane Irma to help prevent garage flooding. You just get them wet (shouldn't be any problem!) and they expand to help block flood waters. They say they are reusable (e.g. you can dry them out and reuse them) but we haven't done so yet.
Gorilla Tape is handy to tape things down or seal things if necessary.
Empty sand bags - obvious.
Solar rechargeable light - handy if the power is out.

Batteries are obviously always useful:
Some links are affiliate links, but we only link to things we've used or are confident based on other's experiences are useful.

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Recent Headlines

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
555
ABNT20 KNHC 242330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to become slightly more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form tonight or Tuesday while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and
Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase and limit
the chances for additional development while the system moves
northward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall
across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, dangerous surf
conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast on Tuesday. For more information, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1300 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale
force over the northern portion of the wave, while it moves quickly
westward at around 25 mph. This system could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next few days before it encounters
highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the
Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become post-tropical
Tuesday night or Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over
the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as
it meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Summary for Subtropical Depression Leslie (AT3/AL132018)- ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINNING TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 33.1, -47.1 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Subtropical Depression Leslie Public Advisory Number 7-Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018


403 
WTNT33 KNHC 250232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Leslie Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEGINNING TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 47.1W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Leslie was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 47.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
faster eastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday, followed by
a turn toward the north on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical on
Tuesday. Strengthening is likely after that time, and Leslie is
expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by
Wednesday with winds approaching hurricane force.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 7-Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

275 
WTNT23 KNHC 250232
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  47.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  47.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  47.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N  45.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.5N  41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 100SE 250SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 36.2N  40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW.
34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.9N  43.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW.
34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N  47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N  49.0W...SUBTROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N  47.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY





Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 7-Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

574 
WTNT43 KNHC 250233
TCDAT3

Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Leslie's appearance in satellite imagery hasn't changed much this
evening. Deep convection is mainly occuring in bands well displaced
to the southeast of the cyclone's center, and recent ASCAT data
indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, with
the highest wind occuring in those bands.

All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated
transition over the next several days. Little change is expected
with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After
that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly
strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely
reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same
time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from
frontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands,
with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from
the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will
once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could
begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. While
each of the global models handles the exact details of this complex
evolution a little differently, confidence is increasing that Leslie
will become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the central
Atlantic over the next few of days. The NHC intensity forecast has
been increased between 36 and 96 h, and is near a average of the
global and regional dynamical model tracker output.

The depression is currently moving slowly eastward with an initial
motion of 090/3 kt. The guidance is in good agreement that Leslie
will accelerate eastward as it becomes more embedded within an
approaching frontal zone. A northward turn is expected by mid-week,
followed by a bend back toward the west by the end of the week as
Leslie strengthens, occludes, and eventually cuts off from the
mid-latitude flow to the north. The NHC track forecast has not been
significantly changed, and is near the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids
at most forecast hours. However, it should be noted that spread in
the guidance is high, especially by the end of the forecast period,
so confidence in the track forecast at that time is low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 33.1N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 32.9N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  26/1200Z 34.5N  41.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/0000Z 36.2N  40.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/0000Z 36.9N  43.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  29/0000Z 36.5N  47.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  30/0000Z 36.5N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Subtropical Depression Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7-Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

401 
FONT13 KNHC 250232
PWSAT3
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 



Subtropical Depression Leslie Graphics- Subtropical Depression Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 03:21:51 GMT

Subtropical Depression Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 03:22:00 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
835
ABPZ20 KNHC 242323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located around 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure located about 1600 miles south-southeast
of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized shower activity. Some
gradual development of this system is possible through the end of
this week while it moves westward into the eastern portion of the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 25 Sep 2018 03:54:08 GMT

CPHC Central Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
ACPN50 PHFO 242333
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Mon Sep 24 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days.
Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves westward toward the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Powell

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