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2018 Hurricane Names

Hurricane.com - tracking the Tropics since 1994.

"Run from the water; hide from the wind."

We get a fair number of questions about supplies that we recommend or use during hurricanes. Here is a list of some. We'll be adding more to the list as time progresses. One that I'd like to try but haven't is the "Aqua Dam" essentially huge (6 feet or something) versions of this. They are more expensive than these smaller ones. These flood diversion tubes are alternatives to sand bags and easier to move, deploy and clean up later. There is a similar version down below. Both are helpful if you anticipate flooding.

Some supplies that we have found useful during storms - they are available from Amazon making it even easier. Some places for same day delivery. Take a look at theme and see what you think - and let us know in the forum area.

These flood barriers are easy to use and are similar to the flood barriers above - we used them during Hurricane Irma to help prevent garage flooding. You just get them wet (shouldn't be any problem!) and they expand to help block flood waters. They say they are reusable (e.g. you can dry them out and reuse them) but we haven't done so yet.
Gorilla Tape is handy to tape things down or seal things if necessary.
Empty sand bags - obvious.
Solar rechargeable light - handy if the power is out.

Batteries are obviously always useful:
Some links are affiliate links, but we only link to things we've used or are confident based on other's experiences are useful.

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Recent Headlines

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical
wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this
afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but
confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although
the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development
is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this
weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly
westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)- ...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 23.0, -65.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 18-Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 212049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next
several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a
research mission around Jerry.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 212049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  65.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N  66.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N  67.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 35.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY




Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 18-Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 212050
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level
center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent
deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research
mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum
pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum
pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT
data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds
were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held
at 55 kt for this advisory.

Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and
users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical
storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's
disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem
imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone
will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane
again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is
possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen.
The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps
Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is
still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near
Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that
Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next
5 days.

All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or
on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning
northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last
advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and
remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 23.0N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 24.3N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 25.8N  67.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 27.0N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 28.5N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 35.5N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 212049
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  38(42)  24(66)   1(67)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   X(27)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics- Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:52:27 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:24:50 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
218
ABPZ20 KNHC 211709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorena, located over the Gulf of California, on Tropical Storm
Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over
the far southwestern part of the basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)- ...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.0, -131.6 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 38-Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 212032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 131.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 131.6 West.  Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A motion
toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through
Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday
and Tuesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 38-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 212032
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  30SE  45SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 131.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 


Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 38-Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A pair of ASCAT passes within the past 2-3 hours revealed maximum
winds of 40-45 kt, so Kiko's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.
The low-level center appears to be moving out from under the
convective cirrus, and the cloud-top temperatures have been warming
significantly for much of the day.  According to analyses from
UW-CIMMS, about 15 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting the
cyclone, but there is a chance that the shear will decrease a bit
as Kiko loses latitude during the next 36 hours.  On the negative
side, Kiko will remain in a relatively dry and somewhat stable air
mass, and these conditions could limit the amount of deep convection
the cyclone is able to produce.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model, keeping a
relatively steady intensity for the next 3 days.  By days 4 and 5,
an increase in shear and lower oceanic heat content should lead to
weakening, and simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF suggest that Kiko's deep convection may dissipate for
good by that time.  As a result, the official forecast now shows
Kiko becoming a remnant low by day 5.

Kiko is now moving slowly west-southwestward, or 250/4 kt.  An
elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to
near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing
the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next
36 hours.  After that time, the western portion of the trough is
forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to
turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4.  Once a remnant low, Kiko
is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to
turn back to the southwest.  The updated NHC track is a little
farther south during the first 2 days to account for the adjusted
initial position, otherwise it's very close the previous forecast
and the various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 18.0N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 212032
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  X   2( 2)  19(21)  15(36)   2(38)   X(38)   1(39)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     


Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics- Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:34:59 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:31:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)- ...MARIO WEAKENING AND LACKING THUNDERSTORMS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 19.6, -110.5 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 18-Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 212039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...MARIO WEAKENING AND LACKING THUNDERSTORMS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Mario.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 110.5 West. Mario is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
later today or tonight. Mario is then forecast to continue on that
heading through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is
expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 212039
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 


Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 18-Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 212039
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Deep convection has become even more displaced from the center of
Mario, and the closest thunderstorms are now more than 60 n mi to
the southwest of the cyclone's exposed center. The intensity of the
weakening tropical cyclone is now 40 kt, based on a blend of
Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB.

Strong easterly shear affecting Mario is not expected to decrease
much for the next day or two, and it seems unlikely that the cyclone
will be able to recover. By the time the shear does relax early next
week, Mario will be moving over much cooler waters, which should
inhibit the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Further
weakening is therefore forecast, and Mario is now expected to become
a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours. Given current trends in
convection, it's possible that Mario could become post-tropical
sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is merely an update of
the previous advisory.

The tropical storm has drifted slowly northward so far this
afternoon but should resume a north-northwestward track by tonight.
The models are still in fairly good agreement that Mario will then
be steered in that general direction for a few days after that. It
is still within the realm of possibility that the cyclone could
reach the Baja California peninsula, but it will likely become a
remnant low before it does so. Little change was made to the
official track forecast, which is very slightly east of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 19.6N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 212039
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 110W       34 24   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


Tropical Storm Mario Graphics- Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:41:06 GMT

Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:38:03 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)- ...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 26.7, -111.1 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 18-Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

352 
WTPZ35 KNHC 212038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 111.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Baja California peninsula and the Hurricane Watch for
mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue
moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and
then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early
Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by the crew of the Air Force
plane was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today and reach the tropical storm
warning area by later tonight.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday night:

Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches.
East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional
1 to 3 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 212047 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CORRECTED TO ADD STATUS OF REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 111.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 18-Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  18...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours

The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high
terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and
found that Lorena has weakened significantly.  The central pressure
rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt.  These winds are
confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The
cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday.
Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the
shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to
weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls
for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within
the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a
tropical storm.  After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but
heavy rains should continue for another day or so.

Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered
by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high.
This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to
continue on this general track for the next day or two until
dissipation over the Sonoran Desert.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland
Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a
chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

353 
FOPZ15 KNHC 212038
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HERMOSILLO     34  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BAHIA KINO     34 14  18(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BAHIA KINO     50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUAYMAS        34 39   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics- Tropical Storm Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:49:13 GMT

Tropical Storm Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:44:35 GMT
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