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Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192308
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane
Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea approaching the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

A small area of low pressure associated with remnants of Lee is
producing disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. No development is expected
during the next day or so, but environmental conditions could
turn marginally conducive for tropical cyclone regeneration by the
weekend. This low is expected to move northward over the central
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)- ...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Jose was located near 37.5, -71.2 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 58A-Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 192338
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 58A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 71.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...460 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Virginia
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
by an Air Force reconnaissance plane near latitude 37.5 North,
longitude 71.2 West. Jose is moving toward the north-northeast near
8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by Wednesday
morning. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to
pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later tonight, pass
well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass
offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force plane
was 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning later tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard,
Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause
isolated flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 58-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
WTNT22 KNHC 192047
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM HULL
SOUTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH AND ALSO WEST OF WOODS HOLE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N  71.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT.......120NE  70SE  90SW 130NW.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 190SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N  71.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N  71.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.2N  70.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE  70SE  90SW 130NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.2N  69.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE  70SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.7N  68.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N  67.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N  67.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 38.6N  68.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N  69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N  71.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 58-Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

000
WTNT42 KNHC 192048
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite imagery indicate that Jose's cloud pattern has improved
since the previous advisory. Curved band features have become more
evident in all quadrants and the upper-level outflow has also
expanded and become more anticyclonic. Jose actually looks more like
a tropical cyclone now. Satellite intensity estimates have increased
and were a consensus T3.5/55 kt at 1800Z. Since that time, the
convective pattern has continued to improve, including a burst of
convection with cloud tops colder than -60C having developed near
and over the well-defined low-level center. Given the much improved
satellite cloud pattern, the intensity will remain 65 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Jose by 2300Z.

Jose has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast
and is now moving 025/07 kt. There is no significant change to
the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model
guidance remains in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning
toward the northeast by Wednesday morning, followed by a turn toward
the east on Thursday as the cyclone moves around the north side of
deep-layer ridge. During the 72-120 hour period, a high-latitude
ridge is forecast to build to the north of Jose, forcing the
cyclone slowly southward and southwestward over the far North
Atlantic. The new official forecast track lies a little to the east
of the consensus models, closer to the ECMWF solution.

The center and much of the inner core of Jose will be moving over
21-22C SSTs by 36-48 h. However, a large portion of the hurricane's
circulation will still be located over much warmer water, which will
maintain a long, southerly fetch of unstable air into and to the
north of the center. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to be
20 kt or less, only gradual weakening is expected as per the
previous intensity forecasts, and the intensity models IVCN and
HCCA.

The 34-kt wind radii were increased slightly in the northwestern
quadrant based on 14-15Z ASCAT scatterometer wind data, offshore
buoy reports, and a 40-45 kt wind report from ship VRGH3.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 37.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 38.2N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 39.2N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 39.7N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 39.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 39.0N  67.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/1800Z 38.6N  68.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/1800Z 38.3N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 58-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
FONT12 KNHC 192048
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  58                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   3(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
CONCORD NH     34  1   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   2(15)   1(16)   1(17)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  3   7(10)   4(14)   2(16)   3(19)   2(21)   1(22)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  8   6(14)   5(19)   2(21)   3(24)   2(26)   1(27)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  7   5(12)   4(16)   2(18)   2(20)   2(22)   1(23)
 
BOSTON MA      34  9   9(18)   5(23)   2(25)   3(28)   2(30)   1(31)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 24  15(39)   8(47)   3(50)   4(54)   2(56)   1(57)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 37  18(55)   6(61)   4(65)   3(68)   1(69)   1(70)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 18  11(29)   5(34)   2(36)   4(40)   2(42)   1(43)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34 11   6(17)   4(21)   1(22)   2(24)   3(27)   X(27)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34 12   6(18)   4(22)   1(23)   3(26)   2(28)   1(29)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 10   6(16)   4(20)   1(21)   2(23)   2(25)   2(27)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 18   9(27)   4(31)   2(33)   4(37)   2(39)   1(40)
 
ALBANY NY      34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  5   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)   2(16)   1(17)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 28  10(38)   5(43)   2(45)   4(49)   2(51)   X(51)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLIP NY       34 16   6(22)   4(26)   1(27)   3(30)   2(32)   2(34)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 11   5(16)   3(19)   1(20)   2(22)   2(24)   1(25)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  9   5(14)   3(17)   1(18)   2(20)   2(22)   1(23)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  8   5(13)   2(15)   1(16)   2(18)   2(20)   1(21)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  7   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)   2(16)   1(17)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34 11   5(16)   2(18)   1(19)   2(21)   2(23)   1(24)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  7   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34 12   4(16)   2(18)   1(19)   1(20)   3(23)   1(24)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  7   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   1(12)   1(13)   2(15)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34 10   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   1(16)   1(17)   3(20)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 11   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   1(16)   2(18)   2(20)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  8   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   2(14)   3(17)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   2( 8)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   2( 8)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  


Hurricane Jose Graphics- Hurricane Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 23:41:01 GMT

Hurricane Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 21:23:28 GMT

Local Statement for New York City, NY-Issued at 541 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Local Statement for Boston, MA-Issued at 600 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)- ...1000 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD START ON ST. CROIX SOON... As of 10:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19 the center of Maria was located near 17.2, -64.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 909 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 175 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 15A-Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 192357
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 64.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.  The
Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for Anguilla has also
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 64.2 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night.  On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight, cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
and then pass just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico.  Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 909 mb (26.84 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in
portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands this evening,
and spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and
Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the Virgin
Islands at this time.  Tropical storm conditions should begin
spreading over Puerto Rico within the next few hours.  Hurricane
conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on
Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.


$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 15-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
WTNT25 KNHC 192042
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
* CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* GUADELOUPE
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  64.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  916 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  64.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  63.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N  65.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N  66.7W...OVER PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N  68.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N  69.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 15-Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 192046
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Maria has continued to strengthen this afternoon, with surface and
flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft supporting an intensity of 145 kt, and the central
pressure inside the 5 n mi wide eye falling to 916 mb.  The
aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.

The initial motion remains 300/9.  The forecast track philosophy
remains the same, with the eye of Maria expected to move near the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and across Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
followed by a motion just north of the eastern Dominican Republic
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Subsequently, a break in the
subtropical ridge caused in part by Hurricane Jose should allow
Maria to turn north-northwestward and northward by the end of the
forecast period.  Only minor changes have occurred in the track
guidance since the last advisory, and the new track has only minor
adjustments from the previous track.

Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the
outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its
maximum potential intensity. It now appears likely that Maria will
be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, although there is a chance that the start
of the eyewall replacement cycle might reduce the intensity a little
bit.  The hurricane should weaken as it crosses Puerto Rico, and
after that proximity to Hispaniola and less favorable upper-level
winds are likely to lead to continued slow weakening.  The new
intensity forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is expected to move near or over St. Croix and
Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands.
Everyone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to
avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A hurricane warning also in effect for the remainder of the
Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,
where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall.

4. A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions
on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.8N  64.0W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 17.5N  65.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 18.4N  66.7W  130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 36H  21/0600Z 19.3N  68.1W  125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  21/1800Z 20.2N  69.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 22.5N  71.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 25.5N  72.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 28.5N  72.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 192043
PWSAT5

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  23(34)   5(39)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  39(45)  14(59)   2(61)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  12(30)   X(30)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   X(17)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  33(39)  45(84)   4(88)   X(88)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  48(59)   6(65)   X(65)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  36(39)   3(42)   1(43)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   1(15)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   3( 3)  17(20)  40(60)  16(76)   1(77)   X(77)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)  18(44)   1(45)   X(45)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  12(21)   1(22)   X(22)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   5( 6)  34(40)  19(59)   5(64)   1(65)   X(65)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PONCE PR       34 62  38(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       50 12  84(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
PONCE PR       64  1  72(73)   4(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)

AGUADILLA PR   34 10  88(98)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
AGUADILLA PR   50  2  87(89)   7(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X  51(51)  27(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)

SAN JUAN PR    34 82  18(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50 35  63(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
SAN JUAN PR    64  2  75(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)

VIEQUES PR     34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50 93   5(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
VIEQUES PR     64 24  47(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)

SAINT THOMAS   34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50 81   7(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
SAINT THOMAS   64 10   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    64 76   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

BARBUDA        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ANTIGUA        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUADELOUPE     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AVES           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Hurricane Maria Update Statement-Issued at 1000 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

000
WTNT65 KNHC 200158
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1000 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...1000 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD START ON ST. CROIX SOON...

A wind gust to 87 mph (141 km/h) was recently reported in the
western portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM AST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 64.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Maria Graphics- Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 23:58:57 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 21:29:59 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.-Issued at 833 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.-Issued at 0
::
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