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Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Chantal, located several hundred
miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A trough of low pressure located over the central Bahamas is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development is possible by this weekend or early next week while
the system moves slowly northwestward toward the Florida peninsula
at 5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the southeastern
coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)- ...CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 39.1, -45.7 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220842
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

...CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 45.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 45.7 West.  The
depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h).
Chantal is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

000
WTNT24 KNHC 220841
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N  45.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N  45.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  46.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N  43.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N  41.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N  41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N  41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.2N  43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N  45.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 


Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220842
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

Chantal has been able to sustain an area of convection just to the
east of its low-level center since the last advisory, and final-T
numbers are actually back up to a unanimous T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and
SAB.  The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt.  The
depression is getting ready to move over a tongue of slightly warmer
waters, and vertical shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt in a
day or two.  However, there is abundant dry air around the system,
and upper-level convergence is expected to increase, both of which
should extinguish Chantal's organized deep convection in 24-36
hours.  The NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow
the global models, with Chantal expected to become a remnant low on
Friday and degenerate into a trough on Sunday.

Chantal is moving south of due east and a little slower than before,
or 100/15 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to
build over Chantal in the coming days, leaving the depression in
weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop
before it dissipates.  The new NHC track forecast is mainly an
update of the previous one and lies between the ECMWF, HCCA, and
the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 39.1N  45.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 38.4N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 37.3N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 36.3N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 35.6N  41.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 36.2N  43.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

000
FONT14 KNHC 220842
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019               
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     


Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics- Tropical Depression Chantal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 08:43:58 GMT

Tropical Depression Chantal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 09:24:28 GMT
::
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