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Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories

	  
	  

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Willa, located close to the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)- ...CATEGORY 3 WILLA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ISLA DEL BOSQUE, SINALOA... As of 7:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 the center of Willa was located near 22.7, -105.8 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 15A-Issued at 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 232343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO...
...DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE
HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.0 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight.  On the forecast track,
the eye of Willa will make landfall along the coast of west-central
Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next hour or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected before
Willa crosses the coast of Mexico.  Very rapid weakening is expected
after landfall, and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will gradually subside in Las Islas
Marias. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread into the
hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 15-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 232034
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.4W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.4W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 106.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 15-Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 232035
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have finally
ended with the erosion of the small inner eye and the outer eye
becoming better defined in microwave data.  The eye has also warmed
and become more evident in infrared and visible satellite imagery
this afternoon.  The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
flew into Willa earlier today measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 109 kt in the southeast quadrant and SFMR winds of around
100 kt.   Since the aircraft was only able to perform a single pass
through each quadrant, there is likely some undersampling so the
initial wind speed is set at 105 kt.

Satellite and the earlier aircraft fixes show that Willa is moving
a little faster toward the north-northeast, or around 030/9 kt.  The
hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
shortwave trough that is passing near the Baja California peninsula.
The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in showing that
the center of Willa will reach the coast of west-central Mexico very
soon, and then track inland over central Mexico tonight and
Wednesday.  The track guidance envelope has not changed much this
cycle, and no significant changes were needed to the previous
official track.

Although the satellite presentation of Willa has improved somewhat
this afternoon, little change in strength is expected before the
hurricane reaches the coast of Mexico.  Increasing southwesterly
shear and the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will cause
Willa to rapidly weaken after it moves inland tonight and
Wednesday.  A 24-h forecast point is provided for continuity, but it
is unlikely that the low-level circulation will survive its passage
over the mountainous terrain for that long of a time period.

Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach
the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area
within the next few hours.  Hurricane-force winds will also extend
inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa
moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 232035
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MAZATLAN       34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
MAZATLAN       50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    


Hurricane Willa Update Statement-Issued at 700 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

000
WTPZ64 KNHC 240104
TCUEP4

Hurricane Willa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
700 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...CATEGORY 3 WILLA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ISLA DEL BOSQUE, SINALOA...

At 700 PM MDT, satellite images indicate that Willa has made
landfall near Isla Del Bosque, Sinaloa, or about 10 miles (15 km)
south of Escuinapa.  Maximum winds at landfall were estimated to be
120 mph (195 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 965 mb (28.50
inches).

A Mexican weather station near Marismas Nacionales recently reported
a wind gust to 95 mph (153 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM MDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 105.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake




Hurricane Willa Graphics- Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 23:44:51 GMT

Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 21:21:53 GMT

	  


	

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