Hurricane.com - Advisory
Expires:No;;679626 WTNT31 KNHC 071452 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 ...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES... 430 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION... LOCATION...17.9N 84.1W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM EST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
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Expires:No;;679823 WTNT41 KNHC 071500 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF HOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/8. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW IT REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD...BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...WHILE NOT IDEAL...APPEAR CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. ONCE IDA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND WATERS BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING...HOWEVER THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AN EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS WEAKENING THAN TYPICAL...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE