Hurricane



Headlines

 
 
 
 
 

Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;892820
WTNT31 KNHC 250532
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1200 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

...CENTER OF OTTO NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
...DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 86.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was
located over the eastern North Pacific Ocean near latitude 10.8
North, longitude 86.2 West. Otto is moving toward the west near
13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest and a faster
forward speed are expected overnight. On the forecast track, the
center of Otto will move away from the coast of Central America
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts
of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and
southern Nicaragua through this morning. These rains will likely
result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Recent
reports from amateur radio operators indicate that mudslides are
occurring over portions of northern Costa Rica.

Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with total rainfall amounts of up to
10 inches over the higher terrain of southern Costa Rica through
today.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning area
along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua for the next
few hours.

SURF:  Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the
coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.  High surf is likely
to occur during the next few hours over portions of Lago Nicaragua.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next complete advisory at 300 AM CST will be issued as an
eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2
and WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



 

More information

Expires:No;;887020
WTNT41 KNHC 250254
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
900 PM CST THU NOV 24 2016

Radar data from Las Nubes, Nicaragua, indicate that the core of Otto
has remained well organized since landfall, with an eye still
discernible.  On the other hand, the convective clouds associated
with the cyclone have warmed considerably since landfall.  There
have been no surface observations from the core, so the initial
intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 60 kt based on the
decay in the satellite appearance.

The initial motion estimate is 265/11.  Otto is located over
northwestern Costa Rica and should emerge into the Pacific during
the next few hours.  Easterly steering flow on the south side of a
deep-layer ridge located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southern Mexico is expected to keep Otto moving in a westward to
west-southwestward direction for the next 72 hours or so.  After
that time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to reach the
end of the ridge and turn northwestward.  The new forecast track is
similar to the previous track through 72 hours, then is shifted a
little to the left of the track based on a shift in the consensus
models.

During the first 36 hours over the Pacific, Otto is likely to be
over warm sea surface temperatures in an environment of moderate to
strong easterly vertical wind shear.  The intensity forecast during
this time will show a slow weakening in agreement with the previous
forecast due to the uncertainties in the strength of the shear.
However, given the level of organization it would not be surprising
if some intensification occurred.  Around 48 hours, the cyclone is
likely to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures which should
cause a faster weakening.  From 72-120 hours, Otto is expected to
move over warmer water with decreasing shear at the same time it
encounters a much drier air mass.  The intensity forecast uses the
premise that the dry air will cause the system to decay and thus
calls for Otto to be a remnant low by 120 hours.  It should be
noted, though, the the intensity forecast after 48 hours remains
near the lower edge of the guidance.

The primary threat from Otto will continue to be torrential
rainfall, which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides.

Since Otto has maintained itself as a tropical cyclone all the way
across the land mass of Central America, based on National Weather
Service and World Meteorological Organization protocols, it will
retain the name Otto when it moves over the eastern Pacific in a few
hours. Product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with the next complete advisory at 0900 UTC. The
intermediate advisory at 0600 UTC will be issued under an Atlantic
header.  The ATCF identifier will change from AL162016 to EP222016
at 0900 UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 10.9N  85.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  25/1200Z 10.5N  87.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC
 24H  26/0000Z 10.0N  90.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z  9.6N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z  9.4N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z  9.5N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 11.0N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven



 
	

::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.