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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;679626
WTNT31 KNHC 071452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.  THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES...
430 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY.  IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.9N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE 
 

 

More information

Expires:No;;679823
WTNT41 KNHC 071500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF
HOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM.
 
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/8.  IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
HWRF ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW IT REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD...BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...WHILE NOT IDEAL...APPEAR CONDUCIVE ENOUGH
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. 
ONCE IDA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AND WATERS BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING...HOWEVER THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AN
EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS
WEAKENING THAN TYPICAL...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.
 
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 17.9N  84.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 18.9N  84.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.3N  85.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  86.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.6N  88.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 28.5N  88.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 29.0N  86.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N  85.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
 


 
	

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