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Expires:No;;564392 WTNT31 KNHC 310243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 ...DANIELLE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.3N 47.1W ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE DANIELLE IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE WAVES...AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...WAVES NEAR 10 FEET...3 METERS...ARE OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Expires:No;;564449 WTNT41 KNHC 310249 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AMSU MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM-CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT BUT IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE VICINITY OF DANIELLE IN RECENT HOURS. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION...WEAKENING OF THE WARM-CORE AND A NON-TROPICAL SATELLITE APPEARANCE...DANIELLE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OVERTAKING DANIELLE BY LATE TOMORROW. THE CENTER IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH...MAKING THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/13 SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND ACCELERATING AROUND A LARGE 500 MB CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF GREENLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 41.3N 47.1W 60 KT...POST-TROPICAL 12HR VT 31/1200Z 42.3N 41.8W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 01/0000Z 44.3N 34.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 01/1200Z 47.0N 26.6W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 02/0000Z 50.7N 22.8W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN