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Expires:No;;946475
WTNT32 KNHC 251433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 47.9W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 49 MPH...80 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The post-
tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 49 mph (80
km/h), and this motion with some further increase in forward speed
is expected today.  A turn toward the north-northeast should occur
by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast before Karl is absorbed by a
larger extratropical storm over the North Atlantic on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this Karl.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



 

More information

Expires:No;;946480
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

While Karl was producing a large shield of deep convection earlier,
the convective tops have since warmed substantially and decreased in
coverage. The cyclone's cloud pattern resembles a baroclinic leaf,
which is the typical satellite signature of a system that has become
a frontal wave.  The leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck,
indicative of cold-air advection, is also encroaching on the
low-level center.  Based on these developments and FSU Phase Space
diagrams that already show the cyclone as cold core, Karl is being
declared an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is
held at 60 kt in agreement with earlier Global Hawk sonde data and
the cyclone's rapid translational speed.  Global models show Post-
Tropical Karl being absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over
the North Atlantic after about 24 hours.

A series of earlier microwave images showed that the center was
rapidly becoming deformed due to nearly 50 kt of southwesterly
shear.  Since this has made finding the location of the low-level
center difficult, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain
055/42.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to accelerate a bit
further toward the northeast and then turn north-northeast before
losing its identity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 39.9N  47.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  26/0000Z 45.0N  39.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 52.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



 
	

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