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Expires:No;;949672
WTNT32 KNHC 290241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Kirk Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

...KIRK BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Kirk were located near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 65.8 West.  The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h), and the wave is
expected to continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the wave axis.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The remnants of Kirk are expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches across St.
Croix and eastern Puerto Rico overnight through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg



 

More information

Expires:No;;949700
WTNT42 KNHC 290242
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Kirk Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Even though there still appears to be a circulation center in
satellite imagery, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was
unable to find westerly winds that would support a closed
circulation.  Therefore, Kirk has degenerated into an open wave,
and this will be the last advisory.  The SFMR on the plane still
measured winds around 35 kt in the convection to the east of the
wave axis, and that will remain the initial intensity.

The wave will continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea
during the next few days, with its winds gradually decreasing due
to continued westerly shear.  Heavy rains are still possible over
portions of eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix during the next day
or two while Kirk's remnants pass to the south.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 15.1N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



 
	

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