Hurricane.com - Advisory
Expires:No;;218121 WTNT32 KNHC 051452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 05 2008 ...BERTHA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 885 MILES...1420 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1705 MILES...2740 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...37.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Expires:No;;218124 WTNT42 KNHC 051452 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA STRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW PREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED SHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.6N 37.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN